Opinion
Mihai Cernencu: Even if Russia reopens its market for Moldova, we must understand that the crises might repeat
The year 2014 will go down in history also because of the tensed regional situation: the Russian military aggression against Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea. The world, as we have known it in the last 50 years, has changed dramatically this year. International experts commented after Russia infringed on the principles of the international law and annexed Crimea by military force. The university professor, Mihai Cernencu, has a different opinion.
Mihai Cernencu: It’s the Russian Federation which sustains the world has changed and that we must accept new realities. I don’t think so. As long as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union exist, as well as the current structure of international relations, we can say that after 2014 the world will never be the same.
There have appeared a series of ideas in the Russian Federation which, in my opinion, are bizarre. For example, the representatives of the Russian diplomacy, as well as the head of the Kremlin, say that “NATO is getting close to the Russian borders.” This is a real aberration. NATO, through the USA has direct borders with the Russian Federation in the Far East, while Turkey has been a NATO member since 1947. I do not see how the entry of Bulgaria was able to get NATO closer to the Russian Federation given that Turkey has direct borders with Russia. Moreover, Romania does not have common borders with the Russian Federation either. It is true that the Baltic countries have joined NATO and they have done it simply because they are afraid of another invasion of Russia, the successor of the Soviet Union, because Moscow has always tried to destabilize these countries.
The tsarist foreign policy and the foreign policy of the USSR do not differ at all from the foreign policy of the Russian Federation. In 1939 the Soviet Union created the Karelian-Finnish Soviet Socialist Republic in order to start a war in Finland. Fortunately, 11 thousand international volunteers came and fought back the Soviet Union. The Soviet press was writing then that the USSR was not fighting against Finland but was supporting the Karelian-Finnish Republic to fight against the bourgeois regime there. That happened in the conditions when the Soviet Union was simply swept from the League of Nations for the aggression against Finland. And today, we see Luhansk, Donetsk, the Transnistrian republic … I assure you that there is no difference whatsoever between the foreign policy of the USSR and that of the Russian Federation.
Economically, half a year was enough for Russia to feel fully the embargo imposed by the EU and the USA in connection with Ukraine. In the beginning, Moscow said that European sanctions din not affect it. And we saw it that it was true. Iran, for example, has been under embargo for 40 years and its economy is still operating according to certain economic laws. While in Russia no economic law is being respected today.
Altogether, the external sanctions and the domestic situation, but also the dramatic fall in the oil prices on the international market has led to the current situation in Russia. As a result, the Russian economy has been seriously hit.
These things are so bizarre and strange, that at some point you think it’s a science fiction film. At leas,t it does not look like reality. And it seems that the Russian Federation is not connected to the reality. I believe that the true wakening will happen after the New Year. The sharp depreciation of the ruble shows distrust in the government, Putin and the Russian financial system. The process of money withdrawal from banks will start. It will be then that the disaster will begin and the “krîmnaş” will go down in history. Things will look really bad in future and I believe that what Russia did in Ukraine could expand to the Russian Federation.
Lina Grâu: Speaking about the complicated financial situation in the Russian Federation, there are two opinions at Chisinau. Some say that the situation in Russia does not affect us as we are not so connected with the Russian market as we were some years ago. Others say it will anyway affect the situation in Moldova having a big impact on the national currency, trade and the situation of migrants. How do you see things?
M.C.: I thank all the saints that Moldova is not that connected economically to the Russian Federation due to the embargoes that Moscow has imposed on us. And thank God!
We will be affected to the extent of our deposits in the banks in the Russian Federation. The Moldovan banks which have deposits in those banks may not be able to recover them.
Secondly, can you imagine that the Moldovan migrants working in the Russian Federation, which account for about 25 to 27 percent of all migrants could return to Moldova as they will not be paid for their work? I don’t think that their salaries will be increased three times. For example, a worker who received 20 thousand rubles when one dollar was 30 rubles had a different situation than today when 1 dollar became 60-70 rubles. Our migrants will not be able to make savings to send them home and even worse, they will hardly be able to make both ends meet.
The third aspect, I know what happened in 1997-1998 when many exporters of sugar, fruit, and vegetables, have lost practically everything. They had signed the contracts in rubles when the ruble flew from 6 to 30 rubles for one US dollar. When they received their money in rubles they had really difficult times. Now, it is important to learn the lesson – no matter what happens next and no matter the trade possibilities, we should understand once and for all that the crises will repeat in future. Looking back to what happened in 1988-1989 and then in 1998, and now in 2014 to 2015, I’m not sure this will not happen again. What other experiences could convince our citizens and politicians that Russia is not a safe place? We have to do a lot in this sense and the EU is helping us to put the Association Agreement into practice. The Association Agreement through the financial assistance provided by the EU, is trying to teach us how to trade and how to produce qualitative products in order to be competitive on the EU markets.
L.G.: Why is Russia afraid of signing the Association Agreement by Ukraine and Moldova?
M.C.: Russia is losing its markets. Where will it be selling its products if not in Ukraine where there are 45 million consumers?
Secondly, Putin’s greatest fear is that together with the beginning of democracy and prosperity in Ukraine, the example given by Ukraine as a modernized and democratic state could be thousands of times more dangerous than any weapon at the border with the Russian Federation. The example of Ukraine could be bewildering to the people in the Russian Federation. That’s actually why Russia is trying so fiercely to destabilize Ukraine. Having a prosperous and democratic Ukraine at its border, the more so that it will not be able to penetrate its market, means the beginning of the end of the Russian Federation.
L.G.: One of the important events of the year was the parliamentary elections from November 30th. Much has been said about the fact that this vote was decisive for Moldova’s European course. How should the Moldovan political class behave so that the European integration process continues and its benefits are felt by the citizens?
M.C.: If people enter politics in order to have benefits, we have what we have now. If, however, they enter politics following the state interests it is different. The Czech Republic, Estonia, and Poland for example, did have such responsible politicians. This is really important as not everybody can make politics to the benefit of the society.
For example, in our country people enter politics for profit. And in this case, the politics is not to the benefit of the society and citizens.
L.G.: If this rather sad situation described by you perpetuates the European prospects of Moldova will remain unclear. What would have to be changed in the way politics is done? Are there factors of change in Moldova?
M.C.: As long as what I said above about the politics which brings benefits to certain people remains valid in Moldova, we will not able to move forward. Things will start changing when our well-trained young people who are abroad now come back and take over the governance, including ministries. It is only when the critical mass of these people come home, that the things will start changing.
Lina Grâu: Do you see the possibility for Moldova to get closer to the EU in 2015? Is a functional government early next year possible ?
Mihai Cernencu: I would like that we have a government by the end of this year but I am not sure this will happen. I would prefer a broader alliance than one of the three parties as this way the social base for the support of the European integration will increase. The government programme must match the Association Agreement. The authorities have to adopt next year over 300 laws which should lead to the harmonization of the Moldovan legislation with that of the EU, which is a very long and complicated process.
I wish that at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Riga we achieved what our authorities promised in 2013 – to submit an application for EU membership. There are good relations at the personal level between Leanca and Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission. The meetings and the visit that Donald Tusk, the chairman of the European Council, will pay to Moldova are also very important in this sense.
But on this way, two inherent conditions – fighting against corruption and the reforms- are extremely important. The EU will apply the “more for more” principle -more reforms – more money, fewer reforms – less money. This interdependence between what we do and the EU funding could become fundamental for the politicians, the government, and the Republic of Moldova as a state.
The only solution for the modernization and prosperity of Moldova is the European Union.
The interview was done by Lina Grâu, foreign policy expert and programme coordinator of the Foreign Policy Association of Moldova.
This opinion piece was written by Dr. Nicholas Dima. Dr. Dima was formerly a Professor of Geography and Geopolitics at Djibouti University, St. Mary’s University College and James Madison University. From 1975 to 1985 and from 1989 to 2001, Dr. Dima was a Writer and Field Reporter at Voice of America. The opinion does not necessarily represent the opinion of the editorial staff of Moldova.org.
***
The 21st Century Russian Federation is a rebirth of the 19-th Century Tsarist Empire; a huge territory inhabited by hundreds of ethnic groups held together by an authoritarian government. Having acquired a diversity of lands and peoples that would not freely want to be together, Moscow has to be on guard. It has to keep an eye on those who are inside the federation and to make sure that no outsiders threaten its territory. Otherwise, in a nutshell, Ukraine is Russia’s biggest dilemma and Russia is Ukraine’s biggest nightmare!
In 1991 Moscow agreed reluctantly to the dissolution of the former USSR. Ukraine became independent and consented to give up its nuclear arsenal inherited from the Soviet Union in exchange for territorial guaranties. Russia did not keep its engagement. It violated the Minsk protocol and in 2014, after a hybrid war, annexed Crimea. At the same time, pro-Russian forces took over two important eastern Ukrainian regions, Lugansk and Donetsk, where the population is ethnically mixed and somehow pro-Russian.
Since the annexation of Crimea, Moscow has strengthened its military presence in the peninsula and in the Black and Azov Seas. Furthermore, it built a strategic bridge that connects Crimea with the Russian mainland. Then, Russia began to reject NATO activities in East Europe and to denounce the presence of the US Navy in the Black Sea as provocations. In order to counter NATO, Russia also brought some of its warships from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea through the Volga-Don Canal.
During recent years, Ukraine approached the United States and NATO and asked for assistance and, eventually, for membership in the EU and possibly NATO. For Moscow, however, Ukraine is an essential buffer zone against the West. With President Vladimir Putin lamenting the dismemberment of the USSR and embracing the traditional Russian expansionist mentality, the perspective of Ukraine’s NATO membership would be an existential threat.
The current situation at the Russo-Ukrainian border is tense and the stakes are high. Neither country is satisfied with the status quo, but the choices are very risky. The important Donbas region of East Ukraine, controlled by pro-Russian forces, is in a limbo. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is losing support among the people and must defend his country’s integrity. Currently, Putin has the upper hand and military superiority on his side, but using brute force in the conflict could trigger further Western economic sanctions and even military hostility.
For now it seems that Moscow is mainly posturing, but the true Russian intentions are not clear. Thus, a miscalculation could trigger a catastrophe of international proportions. No one knows how the events will play out, but the danger is obvious. Moscow is playing with fire. Apparently, it does not want a full war, neither the current stalemate, nor a retreat. What does it want? It seems that Moscow knows what it wants, but not necessarily what it can!
Regionally, the situation between Europe and Russia is complex and internationally the world is confronted with threatening new realignments. With the help of Russia, Belarus has encouraged thousand of Middle East migrants to assail the Polish border and the European Union. Poland has mobilized its forces and NATO and EU are on alert. The three Baltic countries also feel threatened. And the recent Russo-Chinese economic cooperation and military rapprochement reinforce the international apprehension.
Since the dissolution of the USSR, Russia went through several uneasy stages. During the first years of transition toward a new political system Russia experienced economic decline and popular unrest. Then, Putin took over and managed to stabilize the country. Russia opted for security and stability instead of political democracy and economic prosperity. At the same time, Kremlin focused its resource on the military and strengthened Russia’s war capacity.
For the time being, Russia may want to perpetuate the current situation and to keep Ukraine under its thumb. However, things are not static and sometimes they move unpredictably. What if Ukraine does become a NATO member? Then, it will be impossible for Russia to challenge Kyiv without triggering a devastating war. On the other hand, waiting is not in Russia’s advantage. Demographically, ethnic Russians are declining and the non-Russians, mostly Muslims, are fast increasing. The continuous emigration to the West of many Russians is not helping the population balance either. This trend will almost certainly renew old conflicts especially in the unsettled Caucasus region…
Attacking Ukraine now, overtly or through a hybrid war, would be risky for Russia and would not bring a lasting solution to the dispute. The war could destabilize Kyiv and even dismember Ukraine, but it would also destabilize the Russian Federation. The present tension will probably be diffused, but the next time around, in about 10 to 20 years, Putin will be gone, Moscow itself will be in disarray, Caucasian Muslims will be asking openly for independence and Ukraine will be ready and capable to fight Russia.
A Russo-Ukrainian war, now or later, will immediately have regional effects engaging Belarus and most likely Poland, the Baltic States, Moldova, Romania and implicitly NATO. Romania, for example, will follow its western allies, but it could not ignore the fact that certain formerly Romanian lands are now part of Ukraine. As for Moldova, beyond the facts that Moldovans are Romanians, its Transnistrian (Transdnestr) area is entirely under Russian control and in an eventual war will be used by Moscow against Ukraine.
Nicholas Dima, January 1, 2022
A new football club has earned a leading place in the UEFA Champions League groups and starred in the headlines of worldwide football news yesterday. The Football Club Sheriff Tiraspol claimed a win with the score 2-1 against Real Madrid on the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid. That made Sheriff Tiraspol the leader in Group D of the Champions League, including the football club in the groups of the most important European interclub competition for the first time ever.
International media outlets called it a miracle, a shock and a historic event, while strongly emphasizing the origin of the team and the existing political conflict between the two banks of the Dniester. “Football club from a pro-Russian separatist enclave in Moldova pulls off one of the greatest upsets in Champions League history,” claimed the news portals. “Sheriff crushed Real!” they said.
Moldovans made a big fuss out of it on social media, splitting into two groups: those who praised the team and the Republic of Moldova for making history and those who declared that the football club and their merits belong to Transnistria – a problematic breakaway region that claims to be a separate country.
Both groups are right and not right at the same time, as there is a bunch of ethical, political, social and practical matters that need to be considered.
Is it Moldova?
First of all, every Moldovan either from the right or left bank of Dniester (Transnistria) is free to identify himself with this achievement or not to do so, said Vitalie Spranceana, a sociologist, blogger, journalist and urban activist. According to him, boycotting the football club for being a separatist team is wrong.
At the same time, “it’s an illusion to think that territory matters when it comes to football clubs,” Spranceana claimed. “Big teams, the ones included in the Champions League, have long lost their connection both with the countries in which they operate, and with the cities in which they appeared and to which they linked their history. […] In the age of globalized commercial football, teams, including the so-called local ones, are nothing more than global traveling commercial circuses, incidentally linked to cities, but more closely linked to all sorts of dirty, semi-dirty and cleaner cash flows.”
What is more important in this case is the consistency, not so much of citizens, as of politicians from the government who have “no right to celebrate the success of separatism,” as they represent “the national interests, not the personal or collective pleasures of certain segments of the population,” believes the political expert Dionis Cenusa. The victory of FC Sheriff encourages Transnistrian separatism, which receives validation now, he also stated.
“I don’t know how it happens that the “proud Moldovans who chose democracy”, in their enthusiasm for Sheriff Tiraspol’s victory over Real Madrid, forget the need for total and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria!” declared the journalist Vitalie Ciobanu.
Nowadays, FC Sheriff Tiraspol has no other choice than to represent Moldova internationally. For many years, the team used the Moldovan Football Federation in order to be able to participate in championships, including international ones. That is because the region remains unrecognised by the international community. However, the club’s victory is presented as that of Transnistria within the region, without any reference to the Republic of Moldova, its separatist character being applied in this case especially.
Is it a victory?
In fact, FC Sheriff Tiraspol joining the Champions League is a huge image breakthrough for the Transnistrian region, as the journalist Madalin Necsutu claimed. It is the success of the Tiraspol Club oligarchic patrons. From the practical point of view, FC Sheriff Tiraspol is a sports entity that serves its own interests and the interests of its owners, being dependent on the money invested by Tiraspol (but not only) oligarchs.
Here comes the real dilemma: the Transnistrian team, which is generously funded by money received from corruption schemes and money laundering, is waging an unequal fight with the rest of the Moldovan football clubs, the journalist also declared. The Tiraspol team is about to raise 15.6 million euro for reaching the Champions League groups and the amounts increase depending on their future performance. According to Necsutu, these money will go directly on the account of the club, not to the Moldovan Football Federation, creating an even bigger gab between FC Sheriff and other football clubs from Moldova who have much more modest financial possibilities.
“I do not see anything useful for Moldovan football, not a single Moldovan player is part of FC Sheriff Tiraspol. I do not see anything beneficial for the Moldovan Football Federation or any national team.”
Is it only about football?
FC Sheriff Tiraspol, with a total estimated value of 12.8 million euros, is controlled by Victor Gusan and Ilya Kazmala, being part of Sheriff Holding – a company that controls the trade of wholesale, retail food, fuels and medicine by having monopolies on these markets in Transnistria. The holding carries out car trading activities, but also operates in the field of construction and real estate. Gusan’s people also hold all of the main leadership offices in the breakaway region, from Parliament to the Prime Minister’s seat or the Presidency.
The football club is supported by a holding alleged of smuggling, corruption, money laundering and organised crime. Moldovan media outlets published investigations about the signals regarding the Sheriff’s holding involvement in the vote mobilization and remuneration of citizens on the left bank of the Dniester who participated in the snap parliamentary elections this summer and who were eager to vote for the pro-Russian socialist-communist bloc.
Considering the above, there is a great probability that the Republic of Moldova will still be represented by a football club that is not identified as being Moldovan, being funded from obscure money, growing in power and promoting the Transnistrian conflict in the future as well.
Photo: unknown
“People expect logical consequences when they see cases of undeclared assets, conflicts of interest, protectionism or proof of certain acts of corruption in the press. Appropriate reaction of authorities is expected even more when the country has commitments in the field of promoting integrity and fighting corruption. The Republic of Moldova has made such commitments. Still, real and effective actions to ensure the proper functioning of most public institutions as a result of eliminating corrupt elements are not very visible,” it is mentioned in the study “Reaction of authorities to journalistic investigations into cases of integrity issues and corruption” launched during an online event organized by the Association of Independent Press and Transparency International Moldova on May 5.
The current study is the third published study after those conducted in 2017 and 2019. All of them aimed to observe the way authorities take into account, verify and sanction the facts described in various journalistic investigations. Another purpose was to monitor persons mentioned in the investigations, in order to see if integrity issues reported by journalists were taken into account when they were promoted or moved to another position.
The 2021 study includes 19 monitored investigations, published between August 2019 and December 2020 by media institutions specialized in conducting investigations in the field of integrity, corruption and organised crime (RISE Moldova, Investigative Journalism Center of Moldova, Ziarul de Garda, MoldovaCurata.md), as well as contains a retrospective of the authorities’ reactions as a consequence of 10 investigations published in the last 5 years.
Study insights
First of all, the investigations monitored in the study were followed by a reaction from either National Integrity Authority (NIA) – as most of the facts described in the monitored investigations concerned assets and conflicts of interest, which fall within the NIA scope of
competence – or other state institutions. The study showed that state authorities were lastly more keen to react to investigations and initiate controls, as compared to 2017 and 2019. In 2017, when 32 investigations were monitored, the percentage of cases with lack of reaction from state institutions was 26%. In 2019, out of the 26 monitored investigations the percentage of non-response cases was 42.3%. In the present study, which includes 19 monitored investigations, the percentage of cases with no reaction was 0%.
The results of introduced controls have been not fruitful yet. Of the 19 controls, 10 are still ongoing, 2 – rejected, 3 confirmed the facts stated in the investigations and 1 resulted in an ongoing criminal case.
Only 3 persons targeted in the monitored investigations became subjects of criminal cases. One person out of 3 was prosecuted directly for the facts described in the investigation, following a complaint filed by a third party. Moreover, “the results continue to indicate a certain degree of tolerance of institutions whose employees are targeted in journalistic investigations as having integrity issues,” is mentioned in the study. As compared to previous studies, no cases of promotion of persons with integrity problems were recorded (8 cases in 2017 and 2 cases in 2019). Still, out of 19 documented investigations, there was only one resignation for the reasons described in the investigation. That happened only after state institutions put pressure on the concerned institution. Also, there were 2 cases when the mentioned people resigned for other reasons than the accusations stated in the investigations.
When looking at the reaction of authorities in the case of 10 investigations published in the last 5 years, it can be observed that the facts described in the investigations had a greater impact on public opinion, but didn’t generate adequate and timely responses from the responsible institutions. Authorities reacted depending on the conjuncture and political reality, sometimes long after the publication of investigation. “With regard to investigations involving mismanagement of public money or alienation of public assets, it is extremely rare for those responsible to be brought to justice and for the material damage caused to be recovered.” Criminal cases were filed only after the change of government (politicians) or when officials become hostile to people in power (judges, prosecutors), as one of the study authors, Victor Mosneag, noticed.
“There is a perception that journalists conduct good investigations and nothing happens after that,” Viorica Zaharia, the second author, said. According to the author, the lack of authorities’ reaction discredit the institutions in charge of control and penalty, as well as media institutions that publish investigations. “We hope that through these studies, more pressure will be put on the authorities to pay more attention to journalistic investigations into conflict of interests, public procurement, assets that exceed the declared income, and so on,” mentioned Viorica Zaharia at the presentation event.
The study can be read here.
Photo: Volodymyr Hryshchenko| Unsplash
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