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Opinion

The experts’ opinions: What are the possible ‘combinations’ in the future parliament?

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The future Parliament of the Republic of Moldova could be divided between several political parties: The Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM), the Democratic Party of Moldova (DPM), the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), the Dignity and Truth Platform Party (DTPP) – that form the electoral bloc ACUM, and the “Șor” Party. No party has the majority; therefore, a political coalition needs to be formed for voting the future Government. That is where the public, media and the political analysts started to speculate on possible options.

The DPM-PSRM coalition

Igor Boțan, the Executive Director of the Association for Participatory Democracy ADEPT, believes that the most probable and realistic option is a DPM-PSRM coalition, as both the DPM and the PSRM have adopted a “pro-Moldova” attitude and already have experience with forming an alliance. “Regarding the Moldova’s foreign relations, Vlad Plahotniuc and Igor Dodon plead for the idea that Moldova should become a sort of bridge between East and West,” as Boțan states for REL/RL. Boțan considers that the DPM and the PSRM have always had common interests.

“When addressing the bloc ACUM for negotiations, the Democratic Party actually makes a proposal to the Party of Socialists.”

The only impediment in a smooth process of negotiations between the DPM and the PSRM would be an eventual disagreement with Russia, which is interested in maintaining the current political situation in Transnistria, in controlling the Moldova’s exports and imports volumes to the EU and keeping its dominance over Moldova through the Orthodox church and Russian media influence, according to Igor Boțan.

The DPM-ACUM coalition

The decision taken by the electoral bloc ACUM to not create any coalitions with any party that passed the threshold of the people’s vote for entering in the parliament has been heavily criticized, especially by the political experts whose position is favourable to the DPM. Therefore, the political pundit Corneliu Ciurea, declared for PublikaTV – a channel controlled by the Democratic Party that “the bloc ACUM does not want to sit at the negotiating table.” He believes that without a support from the Western partners that would encourage those from the bloc ACUM to have a dialogue, they won’t be willing to negotiate with the Democratic Party, as IPN reports.

On March 1st, the DPM deputy chairman Vlad Cebotari announced during a press conference that the Democratic Party sent letters to the DTPP and the PAS inviting them to negotiate a parliamentary majority, so as to ensure effective government of the Republic of Moldova, in line with people’s expectations, as the DPM press release states.

On the other hand, Andrei Năstase, one of the leaders of the bloc ACUM, declared for ProTV that the DPM is trying to imitate the process of forming an alliance. “From that letter, I deduced the hurry in which the Democrats try to mimic the process of forming an alliance. The bloc ACUM will never form an alliance with the thieves, the ruling mafia, those who degraded the country and its people. One of our main commitments was to not form an alliance with the party of Plahotniuc (the DPM), the party of Dodon (the PSRM), the party of Șor or the party of Usatîi – all the oligarchic and anti-European parties”, stated Năstase.

The PSRM-ACUM coalition

Discussing a possible temporary coalition between the bloc ACUM and the PSRM is an idea promoted by some analysts as the most relevant possibility of the majority creation in the Parliament.

In the opinion of Alexei Tulbure, a political commentator from Moldova, a temporary coalition could be created, based on the fact that more than 60 mandates were obtained by the parties that, at least formally, declared themselves against the current system. “I understand that it is impossible to have a long-term, stable coalition between the PSRM and ACUM, because the priorities are very different, but it is a possibility for a ‘stalemate’ against the DPM in an attempt to free the state institutions from Plahotniuc’s people,” said Tulbure for JurnalTV.

In the same time, Igor Boțan declared that “if there is no trust between the partners, even if the partners have different visions, no provisional coalitions are possible. The part who swallows the bait will suffer afterwards.”

Such a combination would mean a ‘political suicide’ for ACUM, according to the publicist Vitalie Ciobanu. “The socialists are just as rotten and corruptible as the democrats. In addition, the PSRM is a Kremlin’s ‘remote control’,” said Ciobanu.  He asks himself how an alliance of the bloc ACUM with those who want the federalization of the Republic of Moldova would look like. “To make all these sacrifices for the sake of an alliance that would break at the first turn – ACUM would be a political loser and a traitor in the eyes of the people who set their hopes on them,” commented Ciobanu.

Calling snap elections or other ‘creative’ alternatives

In the same time, the political analysts admit the possibility that the DPM would ‘convince’ some politicians from other parties to adhere to the DPM, just like it happened in the previous parliament.

According to the political analyst Dionis Cenușă, the Bloc ACUM needs to decide, whether to influence the governance process or to hold the opposition role in the parliament. “The difficulty of such a decision depends equally on the success of the Democrats’ ultimate establishment of a coalition with the “Șor” Party, the three independent candidates, and necessarily at least 11 representatives of the Socialists (PSRM). If the slightest risk of such a scenario persists, then the Bloc ACUM needs to prepare for early elections or for the forced prolongation of the current government,” stated Cenușă for IPN.

Recently. all 35 members of the PSRM, elected in the national and single-seat constituencies, presented a statement obliging them to work  within a single faction in the future legislature.
The PSRM president, Zinaida Greceanîi, declared that at the moment the party does not negotiate any alliances, and the allegations regarding the possible coalitions between the PSRM and other parties are just speculations.

Another possible scenario seems to be prepared by the DPM, as the party member Sergiu Sîrbu filed a petition to the Constitutional Court on February 28th, demanding the transfer of the Parliament’s powers to the Government in case of blocked parliamentary activity. In other words, Sîrbu asked for the settlement of an interim period for the Government in office, where it could issue normative acts, including in the area of ​​regulating laws to ensure the continuity of power.

The best conclusion for this article can be made using the declarations of the Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova (LDPM) former president – Viorel Cibotaru: “There are no suitable options, miracle solutions. We expect a long and hard positional war, close fights in the parliament and other public institutions.” Cibotaru thinks that people must organize strikes, protests, demonstrations, any kind of national resistance, if necessary, to establish the values they share. In the same time, he advises the public to not put pressure on the newly entered in the parliament parties. 

“Let our new politicians invent something new, amaze us with something else. Do not bother them and teach them what to do. Let them manage it by themselves. We will help them not slip into the labyrinth of power … “,

Photo: sputnik.md

Politics

The effect of Russia’s constitutional changes on the Transnistrian region

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A nationwide referendum is held in the Russian Federation between June 25 and July 1 in order to amend the constitution of the country.

Due to the coronavirus pandemic, the opportunity to vote during several days was provided. The voting process is held outside and, in addition, contactless voting at home, electronic voting and voting using the Mobile Voter mechanism are available.

In the Transnistrian region, voting was allowed for three days, from June 28-30, the whole process being organised under similar conditions as in Russia, the Tass News Agency announced.

According to a survey conducted at 800 Russian polling stations from June 25 to June 28, the majority of voters opted for the amendments, 23.6% opposed them and 0.4% invalidated the ballot paper,

Beside the amendment offering the possibility of prolonging the presidential term of Vladimir Putin (until 2036 instead of 2024), there are a a few controversial amendments to the Russian fundamental law.

Source: Facebook| The Center for the Study of the Transnistrian Conflict Consequences

Russian federal territories

One of the most important articles of the Constitution of the Russian Federation that could be amended is article no. 67,  which provides for creation of federal territories in Russia and introduction of the expression “subjects of the Russian Federation”.

“By making this change, Putin wants to make sure that certain federal subjects do not leave the Russian Federation, such as Chechnya, Tatarstan or Crimea, the latter being illegally occupied by the Russian Federation. The territory of the Republic of Moldova doesn’t belong to  the Russian Federation. However, taking into consideration the priorities that President Dodon and socialist have, one could draw a parallel.

During the propagandist Moscow parade, Putin mentioned in his speech that all neighbours ‘are part of the Russian world’. Moldova, according to Vladimir Putin, is part of his strategic interest. The fact that 11% of the Moldova’s territory is hosting occupation troops proves it one more time,” said security policy expert Rosian Vasiloi.

Previously, President Igor Dodon claimed that federalisation is the only solution to solving conflicts in the Republic of Moldova, including the Transnistrian one.

Source: Facebook| The Center for the Study of the Transnistrian Conflict Consequences

Russia as the legal successor to the Soviet Union

In the same article, a paragraph was introduced, saying that the Russian Federation is the legal successor of the Soviet Union. Another amending paragraph states that the Russian Federation honours the memory of the “Fatherland’s defenders” and ensures the protection of historical truth. “The diminution of the importance of the act of heroism in the defence of the Fatherland is not allowed.”

Historian Andrei Cusco mentioned that the victory in World War II is a myth that represented the main pillar of the regime’s ideology after Putin came to power in 2000. “Russia has taken certain moments from the Soviet communist narrative and reinterpreted them to serve the interests and visions of the current regime,” Cusco said.

The Criminal Code of the Russian Federation prohibits the dissemination of information that expresses a clear disrespect regarding the days of military glory and memorable dates in Russia related to the defence of the Fatherland, as Meduza informed.

A good example is the reaction of the Embassy of the Russian Federation in the Republic of Moldova to the TVR Moldova declaration that June 22, 1941 was the day when Romania entered the World War II to liberate the Russian-occupied lands in the summer of 1940. “For Romanians, this date went down in history as the day of starting the fight for the reunification of the nation. The President of the Republic of Moldova, Igor Dodon, is not of the same opinion, as he stated that today is the day when the occupation of Bessarabia began,” it is said in the article.

The Embassy of the Russian Federation qualified the material as “uncivilised and extremely dangerous, because it justifies the war criminals.”

“Such tricks offend most Russian citizens who remember the common heroism of the Red Army that saved Europe from the Nazi plague.”

The perfect Russian child

One more completion to the constitution refers to children education, namely patriotism, citizenship and respect for the elderly.

The same approach existed during the USSR, when the principles of a very cultured man were considered love for the socialist homeland, friendship, companionship, humanity, honour, love for socialist work, etc.

 Marriage of a man and a woman

Another newly introduced amendment provides for the protection of the family, maternity, paternity and childhood, defending the institution of marriage as a union of a man and a woman, creating the conditions for a decent upbringing of children in a family, as well as for the fulfilment of the obligation to take care of parents.

Yet, another video promoting the amendment of the constitution promotes homophobia as well.

Crime against Russians

The Russian journalist Vladimir Pozner believes that the way of voting the amendments is not democratic. “There are many proposed amendments. Among them, there are those that I would be willing to support, but there are those that I am against of. Unfortunately, everything is organized in such a way, that either you order the entire dinner or none of the dishes,” he said.

Liubov Sobol, a Russian politician and lawyer at the Anticorruption Foundation, claimed that resetting Putin’s mandates to zero is a crime against Russians. “20 years were enough to implement all the reforms needed for our country. We saw that Putin failed. Corruption is flourishing in the country, we have a low level of education. There must be a change of power, and all eligible candidates must be allowed to run for president. People have to make a choice.”

This text is a translation. The original article here.

Photo: Facebook| The Center for the Study of the Transnistrian Conflict Consequences

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Environment

A natural water cycle? The floodwater dangers that are neglected in Moldova

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Due to heavy rains in Ukraine, Romania and the Republic of Moldova, the employees of the General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations (GIES) were working during the entire week to eliminate the consequences of the floods in the whole country.

The water level in the Dniester River increased by up to 3.5 m in some northern localities, while the State Hydrometeorological Service forecasted further increases of water level by July 2. Therefore, residents were evacuated from the villages at risk of flooding both from the Dniester and the Prut riverbeds, cleaning works were performed, protection dams were build or fortified, according to a note of the Government of Moldova.

However, beside the problem of flooded households and farmlands, there is also a critical ecological problem. Moldova is still a country with a limited access to centralised sewerage systems. The majority of population (especially in rural areas) still use an improvised toilet placed in the yard (latrine). Moreover, there are still localities in Moldova with no access to a centralised water supply systems, the water from local reservoirs being consumed. The floodwater accelerates the transfer of dangerous pollutants from various sources of pollution (including latrines) to the water that gets in the supply systems or local wells.

Source: gov.md

No water supply systems

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, 81.8% of population  had access to the public water supply service in 2019. 53 cities and 724 rural localities had access to the public water supply system in the last year, which represented only 50.7% of the country’s localities.

About 51% of Moldovan villages do not have access to drinking water supply from public systems.

The localities from Chisinau (88.6%) and Gagauzia (78.1%) have the highest level of connection to the public water supply network. The lowest level is recorded in the North (35.5%). The water is usually captured from surface sources – 64.6%, from underground sources – 25.5%, or from other sources – 9.9%, informed the NBS.

Floods can lead to a higher risk of running out of drinking water for all localities in the Prut and the Dniester riverbeds, which do not have access to centralised water supply systems. Moreover, even those that do have access to such systems risk to drink contaminated water, if the water is captured from sources that came in contact with floodwater.

The National Agency for Public Health (NAPH) reported high levels of non-compliance of  the water from local wells, concerning both chemical and microbiological parameters. “This situation is determined by the lack of centralised sewerage systems, unsanitary conditions, the location of latrines and landfills in the immediate vicinity of wells,” noted the agency.

It also warned that the contaminated water from wells need to be pumped out and walls need to be cleaned in case if floods. When the water in the natural reservoirs is back it needs to be disinfected and tested. The question is how many flooded localities from Moldova respect the NAPH recommendations.

Source: gov.md

No sewerage systems

reportage of Moldova.org disclosed that seven out of ten households in the Republic of Moldova do not have a toilet in the house. On average, 21 out of 30 people use a latrine.

Only 126 out of 1682 localities have sewerage systems and only 73 of them have functional sewage treatment plants. Without a sewage treatment plant, wastewater reaches the soil and rivers, causing serious pollution.

Only 7.6% of Moldovan localities are provided with public sewerage system (95.0% of cities and 4.4% of rural localities).

The highest share of localities with access to the public sewerage system is registered in the capital city area (71.4%) and Gagauzia (15.6%), while the localities in the South and North have almost no access to such systems ( 5.4% and 4.7%), said the official NBS data for 2019.

Only a few localities from Moldova have access to decentralised sewerage systems with attached treatment plants and there are rare cases of households where home treatment plants attached to the individual sewerage system are built.

“In the 21st century, latrines must go down in history,” claimed the NAPH. In case the improvised toilets, built in the yards, are flooded, that could cause a real ecological catastrophe.

No sewage treatment plants

The rivers in the Republic of Moldova are highly polluted due to sewage that is discharged in rivers, as the National Environmental Center (NEC) warned. “The level of pollution and degradation of rivers is so high that we risk causing irreversible damage to the environment, which in turn endangers human life,” said the NEC representatives.

In 2019, 97.15% of the total volume of wastewater discharged in the central sewerage system was treated, as the national statistics reported. While in big cities this share was 99.55%, only 26% of the wastewater was treated in small villages. Let’s not forget also that only 4.4% of the rural localities in Moldova are provided with centralised sewerage system. That means that the biggest quantity of discharged wastewater in rural areas doesn’t reach sewerage systems and national statistics’ reports.

The polluted wastewater gets to the surface and underground waters and from there back to the water supply sources. Floodwater drastically worsens the situation, as even more pollutants reach the water Moldovans drink or use in agriculture.

Photo: gov.md

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Diaspora

Record remittances sent to Moldova during the COVID-19 pandemic – expert’s explanation

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The remittances sent by Moldovans from abroad reached a record level in May 2020. The last time there was a larger amount of money transferred from abroad was only in October 2014.

The economic policy expert Veaceslav Ioniță believes that the significant increase is, paradoxically, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. According to his estimations, during the period of April-May, when there were quarantine and closed borders, Moldovan citizens could not bring into the country around $150 million. Part of this money were transferred through official transfer systems, that reducing the amount of unofficial transfers, is noted in the opinion published on the page of the Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDSI) “Viitorul”.

According to the expert, one third of all money from abroad are usually transferred to Moldova through informal ways, without using any official money transfer channels. “Each year, Moldovans receive almost $1.2 billion through official transfers, but also they sell on the foreign exchange market about $2.1 billion. The difference of 900 million dollars per year is the money that is introduced into the country through informal ways,” said the expert.

The total recorded transfers between April to May amounted $227 million, that being $14 million more than in 2019. At the same time, the foreign exchange sales during this period represented only 50% of the last year’s amount – $259 million. “April and May 2020 were the only two months in the history of transfers, when the money came almost exclusively through official channels. This explains this ‘miraculous’ growth,” concluded Veaceslav Ioniță.

The number of Moldovan citizens aged 15 and over who were working or were looking for a job abroad was 352 700 in 2018, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. That represented 35,68% of the total available workforce of the country in the same year.

People living in the Republic of Moldova, along with the whole economy of the country, are greatly dependant on the remittances sent by the Moldovan citizens who live abroad. About 20% of all families with children in Moldova are supported by a family member who is a migrant. The concentration of such families in rural areas is three times higher than in urban areas, according to data from the NBS cited by the UNDP Moldova.

This money represent not only an important source of income for people living in Moldova, but also contribute to the increase of GDP nominal value. In 2018, the Republic of Moldova has been listed the 9th in a world ranking of remittances related to GDP, with a share of 16,1%, according to the World Bank data.

See also: Who? How? Where? Why? The migration profile of the Republic of Moldova

Due to the negative impact of COVID-19, remittances sent to Moldova are expected to decrease by 24-27% in the future, informed the UNDP Moldova. Decreasing remittance flows were predicted by the World Bank in the whole world. It was estimated that about 17% of all migrants have already stopped remitting to their families. In such a way, 23,4% of Moldovan households risk to be placed below the poverty line if they did not receive remittances.

Photo: Sharon McCutcheonUnsplash

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