Politics
Russian-Georgian War Points to More Border Changes Ahead
Reading Time: 4 minutesMost of the enormous number of commentaries on the approaching first anniversary of the Russian-Georgian war have sought either to identify winners and losers or predict the future, but the real lesson of that conflict is that more borders in the post-Soviet space are likely to change in the future, according to a Moscow analyst.
By Paul Goble
Most of the enormous number of commentaries on the approaching first anniversary of the Russian-Georgian war have sought either to identify winners and losers or predict the future, but the real lesson of that conflict is that more borders in the post-Soviet space are likely to change in the future, according to a Moscow analyst.
In an essay posted on Politcom.ru today, Sergey Markedonov, one of Russia’s most thoughtful commentators on ethnic relations, suggests that most analysts have adopted too narrow a perspective on last year’s conflict instead of considering what it says about the post-Soviet space as a whole (www.politcom.ru/8620.html).
Many analysts, he points out, have sought to draw up a political balance sheet. Bulgarian expert Ivan Krastyev, for example, has concluded that in the war, “Georgia lost its dreams, the Kremlin lost its complexes, Washington lost its nerves, and the European Union lost its peaceful dreams.”
Others, such as Andrey Illarionov, Pavel Felgengauer and Andrey Piontkovsky, have used devoted less attention to an analysis of what happened a year ago than in considering what will happen next, predictions that Markedonov says are based “less on empirical material than on their acceptance a priori of the thesis of the Russia’s aggressive imperial policy.”
And still a third group of commentators have dispensed with analysis altogether, using this anniversary for purely propagandistic purposes, with some claiming that Russia has “risen from its knees,” others talking about “freedom-loving Georgia” and still others going on about “the aggressive West.”
But almost none of them, Markedonov argues, have taken upon themselves the responsibility to consider more broadly “those processes in the framework of which have developed both the Georgian-Abkhaz and the Georgian-Ossetian conflicts as well as other ethno-political stand-offs in the post-Soviet space.”
If one does so, he continues, then one sees that all too many of these analysts have been seduced by “transitology,” by the insistence of many in the West and in Russia itself that what has been taking place in the post-Soviet space is “a transition from authoritarianism to democracy” like that in Spain, Portugal, Greece or Eastern Europe.
In fact, Markedonov argues, “the transition from ‘real socialism’ on the space of the former USSR was not a transition from authoritarianism to democracy. The core of this transition was the process of the formation of nation states on the ruins of the Soviet empire, a quasi-federalist state.”
“This ‘transition,’” he continues, is something that “the countries of Eastern Europe or of Greece were able to pass through during the first half of the 20th century.” And consequently, “after forming political identities (sometimes at a terrible price…), democratization became the order of the day for these countries.”
But on the territory of the former Soviet space, the Moscow analyst says, the countries still must resolve “where the borders of ‘our state’ begin and end.” Only once that has been achieved, something the East Europeans generally were able to do decades ago, will it be possible to put democratization at the center of the political agenda.
And because that is so, Markedonov says, “the excesses of the ethno-political conflicts on the post-Soviet space, including ‘the five-day war’” must be evaluated not according to the criteria of the ‘Spanish-Greek transit’ of 1974-1981” but rather according to those like the Sudetenland, Danzig or Memel issues of inter-war Europe.
Further, he insists, one should “judge the present post-Soviet elites not according to “the standard of Vaclav Havel or Philippe” but rather in comparison to “Joseph Pilsudski, Miklos Horthy or Ion Antonescu” who were engaged, sometimes brutally, sometimes not, in the building of their states in the 1920s and 1930s.
Because that is so, Markedonov argues, there was and is even now no basis for expecting “the rapid democratization” of the post-Soviet states. They had to take the steps necessary to show that “their borders, which were drawn by Soviet people’s commissars, were not fictional but real.”
And at the same time, like the Eastern Europeans of pre-World War II Europe, they had to demonstrate that their “new statehood (with ‘titular nations,’ defined already during the Soviet period)” could cope with the existence of “numerous ethnic minorities” both within the Soviet-drawn borders and beyond them.
Russian publicist Vitaly Portnikov was right, Markedonov says, when he pointed out that “the Communist system of the division of territories into first-class, second-class and third-class was clever. No one could ever understand why one republic was given union status and thus the right to separation and another was named an autonomous one without that right.”
“Only incurable (and at the same time not very smart) idealists could believe,” Markedonov argues, “that [the disintegration of the Soviet space] would take place exclusively along the lines of the union republics without touching the autonomous formations.” That simply was not going to happen as the conflicts frozen and otherwise have shown.
Obviously, he adds, different countries have different abilities to cope with challenges from these minority groups. And one of the clearest tragedies of last year’s war was that Georgian elites were unable “to conduct an accurate assessment of their own foreign and domestic resources.”
Had they been able to do so, Markedonov continues, the Georgians would have understood that “a nuclear power and member of the UN Security Council can permit itself ‘to drown terrorists in an outhouse’ … but a country with a population of four million (with Russia as an enemy) is condemned to conduct numerous negotiations and use ‘soft power.’”
“It is one thing,” Markedonov points out, for Georgia “to copy the style of Russian leaders in relations to the media and opposition, but quite another to conduct broad geopolitical actions. For this, one simply must understand the differences in scale (and world importance) of the two countries.”
Thus, “the chief result” of the Russian-Georgian conflict, the Moscow specialist concludes, is to highlight the continued lack of resolution of this problem of borders and identities inherited from the Soviet past and to underscore the importance of the resolution of these issues before expecting the kind of progress other “countries in transit” are making.
“Only when all these border arguments are resolved and the sides of the conflict come to compromises (and in the case of an accurate political audit this is possible not now of course but after 15 or 20 years) will it be possible to speak about the end of Soviet history in Eurasia.” And only then will something else be possible, he says.
Once those borders and those statuses are agreed upon, then “Russian and Georgian political analysts together with their Abkhaz and Ossetian colleagues will publish more than one multi-volume monograph or collection of archival documents with a mutual recognition of mistakes” – something the Czechs and Germans and the Greeks and Turks doing now.
A new football club has earned a leading place in the UEFA Champions League groups and starred in the headlines of worldwide football news yesterday. The Football Club Sheriff Tiraspol claimed a win with the score 2-1 against Real Madrid on the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid. That made Sheriff Tiraspol the leader in Group D of the Champions League, including the football club in the groups of the most important European interclub competition for the first time ever.
International media outlets called it a miracle, a shock and a historic event, while strongly emphasizing the origin of the team and the existing political conflict between the two banks of the Dniester. “Football club from a pro-Russian separatist enclave in Moldova pulls off one of the greatest upsets in Champions League history,” claimed the news portals. “Sheriff crushed Real!” they said.
Moldovans made a big fuss out of it on social media, splitting into two groups: those who praised the team and the Republic of Moldova for making history and those who declared that the football club and their merits belong to Transnistria – a problematic breakaway region that claims to be a separate country.
Both groups are right and not right at the same time, as there is a bunch of ethical, political, social and practical matters that need to be considered.
Is it Moldova?
First of all, every Moldovan either from the right or left bank of Dniester (Transnistria) is free to identify himself with this achievement or not to do so, said Vitalie Spranceana, a sociologist, blogger, journalist and urban activist. According to him, boycotting the football club for being a separatist team is wrong.
At the same time, “it’s an illusion to think that territory matters when it comes to football clubs,” Spranceana claimed. “Big teams, the ones included in the Champions League, have long lost their connection both with the countries in which they operate, and with the cities in which they appeared and to which they linked their history. […] In the age of globalized commercial football, teams, including the so-called local ones, are nothing more than global traveling commercial circuses, incidentally linked to cities, but more closely linked to all sorts of dirty, semi-dirty and cleaner cash flows.”
What is more important in this case is the consistency, not so much of citizens, as of politicians from the government who have “no right to celebrate the success of separatism,” as they represent “the national interests, not the personal or collective pleasures of certain segments of the population,” believes the political expert Dionis Cenusa. The victory of FC Sheriff encourages Transnistrian separatism, which receives validation now, he also stated.
“I don’t know how it happens that the “proud Moldovans who chose democracy”, in their enthusiasm for Sheriff Tiraspol’s victory over Real Madrid, forget the need for total and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria!” declared the journalist Vitalie Ciobanu.
Nowadays, FC Sheriff Tiraspol has no other choice than to represent Moldova internationally. For many years, the team used the Moldovan Football Federation in order to be able to participate in championships, including international ones. That is because the region remains unrecognised by the international community. However, the club’s victory is presented as that of Transnistria within the region, without any reference to the Republic of Moldova, its separatist character being applied in this case especially.
Is it a victory?
In fact, FC Sheriff Tiraspol joining the Champions League is a huge image breakthrough for the Transnistrian region, as the journalist Madalin Necsutu claimed. It is the success of the Tiraspol Club oligarchic patrons. From the practical point of view, FC Sheriff Tiraspol is a sports entity that serves its own interests and the interests of its owners, being dependent on the money invested by Tiraspol (but not only) oligarchs.
Here comes the real dilemma: the Transnistrian team, which is generously funded by money received from corruption schemes and money laundering, is waging an unequal fight with the rest of the Moldovan football clubs, the journalist also declared. The Tiraspol team is about to raise 15.6 million euro for reaching the Champions League groups and the amounts increase depending on their future performance. According to Necsutu, these money will go directly on the account of the club, not to the Moldovan Football Federation, creating an even bigger gab between FC Sheriff and other football clubs from Moldova who have much more modest financial possibilities.
“I do not see anything useful for Moldovan football, not a single Moldovan player is part of FC Sheriff Tiraspol. I do not see anything beneficial for the Moldovan Football Federation or any national team.”
Is it only about football?
FC Sheriff Tiraspol, with a total estimated value of 12.8 million euros, is controlled by Victor Gusan and Ilya Kazmala, being part of Sheriff Holding – a company that controls the trade of wholesale, retail food, fuels and medicine by having monopolies on these markets in Transnistria. The holding carries out car trading activities, but also operates in the field of construction and real estate. Gusan’s people also hold all of the main leadership offices in the breakaway region, from Parliament to the Prime Minister’s seat or the Presidency.
The football club is supported by a holding alleged of smuggling, corruption, money laundering and organised crime. Moldovan media outlets published investigations about the signals regarding the Sheriff’s holding involvement in the vote mobilization and remuneration of citizens on the left bank of the Dniester who participated in the snap parliamentary elections this summer and who were eager to vote for the pro-Russian socialist-communist bloc.
Considering the above, there is a great probability that the Republic of Moldova will still be represented by a football club that is not identified as being Moldovan, being funded from obscure money, growing in power and promoting the Transnistrian conflict in the future as well.
Photo: unknown
Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova, Natalia Gavrilita, together with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nicu Popescu, pay an official visit to Brussels, between September 27-28, being invited by High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell Fontelles.
Today, Prime Minister had a meeting with Charles Michel, President of the European Council. The Moldovan PM thanked the senior European official for the support of the institution in strengthening democratic processes, reforming the judiciary and state institutions, economic recovery and job creation, as well as increasing citizens’ welfare. Natalia Gavrilita expressed her confidence that the current visit laid the foundations for boosting relations between the Republic of Moldova and the European Union, so that, in the next period, it would be possible to advance high-level dialogues on security, justice and energy. Officials also exchanged views on priorities for the Eastern Partnership Summit, to be held in December.
“The EU is open to continue to support the Republic of Moldova and the ambitious reform agenda it proposes. Moldova is an important and priority partner for us,” said Charles Michel.
Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita also met with Paolo Gentiloni, European Commissioner for Economy, expressing her gratitude for the support received through the OMNIBUS macro-financial assistance program. The two officials discussed the need to advance the recovery of money from bank fraud, to strengthen sustainable mechanisms for supporting small and medium-sized enterprises in Moldova, and to standardize the customs and taxes as one of the main conditions for deepening cooperation with the EU in this field.
Additionally, Prime Minister spoke about the importance of the Eastern Partnership and the Deep Free Trade Agreement, noting that the Government’s policies are aimed at developing an economic model aligned with the European economic model, focused on digitalization, energy efficiency and the green economy.
A common press release of the Moldovan Prime Minister with High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the Commission, Josep Borrell Fontelles, took place today, where the agenda of Moldova’s reforms and the main priorities to focus on in the coming months were presented: judiciary reform; fighting COVID-19 pandemic; promoting economic recovery and conditions for growth and job creation; strengthening state institutions and resilience of the country.
“I am here to relaunch the dialogue between my country and the European Union. Our partnership is strong, but I believe there is room for even deeper cooperation and stronger political, economic and sectoral ties. I am convinced that this partnership is the key to the prosperity of our country and I hope that we will continue to strengthen cooperation.”
The Moldovan delegation met Didier Reynders, European Commissioner for Justice. Tomorrow, there are scheduled common meetings with Oliver Varhelyi, European Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement, Adina Valean, European Commissioner for Transport and Kadri Simson, European Commissioner for Energy.
Prime Minister will also attend a public event, along with Katarina Mathernova, Deputy Director-General for Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations.
Photo: gov.md
Politics
Promo-LEX about Maia Sandu’s UN speech: The president must insist on appointing a rapporteur to monitor the situation of human rights in Transnistria
The President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu, pays an official visit to New York, USA, between September 21-22. There, she participates in the work of the United Nations General Assembly. According to a press release of the President’s Office, the official will deliver a speech at the tribune of the United Nations.
In this context, the Promo-LEX Association suggested the president to request the appointment of a special rapporteur in order to monitor the situation of human rights in the Transnistrian region. According to Promo-LEX, the responsibility for human rights violations in the Transnistrian region arises as a result of the Russian Federation’s military, economic and political control over the Tiraspol regime.
“We consider it imperative to insist on the observance of the international commitments assumed by the Russian Federation regarding the withdrawal of the armed forces and ammunition from the territory of the country,” the representatives of Promo-LEX stated. They consider the speech before the UN an opportunity “to demand the observance of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights by the Russian Federation with reference to this territory which is in its full control.”
“It is important to remember about the numerous cases of murder, torture, ill-treatment, forced enlistment in illegal military structures, the application of pseudo-justice in the Transnistrian region, all carried out under the tacit agreement of the Russian Federation. These findings stem from dozens of rulings and decisions issued by the European Court of Human Rights, which found that Russia is responsible for human rights violations in the region.”
The association representatives expressed their hope that the president of the country would give priority to issues related to the human rights situation in the Transnistrian region and would call on relevant international actors to contribute to guaranteeing fundamental human rights and freedoms throughout Moldova.
They asked Maia Sandu to insist on the observance of the obligation to evacuate the ammunition and the military units of the Russian Federation from the territory of the Republic of Moldova, to publicly support the need for the Russian Federation to implement the ECtHR rulings on human rights violations in the Transnistrian region, and to request the appointment of an UN Human Rights Council special rapporteur to monitor the human rights situation in the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova.
**
The Promo-LEX Association concluded that 14 out of 25 actions planned within the National Action Plan for the years 2018–2022 concerning respecting human rights in Transnistria were not carried out by the responsible authorities.
The association expressed its concern and mentioned that there are a large number of delays in the planned results. “There is a lack of communication and coordination between the designated institutions, which do not yet have a common vision of interaction for the implementation of the plan.”
Promo-LEX requested the Government of the Republic of Moldova to re-assess the reported activities and to take urgent measures, “which would exclude superficial implementation of future activities and increase the level of accountability of the authorities.”
Photo: peacekeeping.un.org
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