Excerpt from the radio program “Moldovan Foreign Policy Debates” broadcasted on Radio Vocea Basarabiei, on September 6th, and produced by the Foreign Policy Association (APE) in collaboration with Imedia News and Analysis Agency and with the assistance of the German Foundation Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES). The broadcast is aired on Radio Vocea Basarabiei every Sunday.

OPINIONS, COMMENTARIES AND INTERVIEWS

1. The evolution of relations between the Republic of Moldova and Romania in the post electoral period

2. The economic crisis and the chances to receive foreign financial assistance from International Organizations and the European Union

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1. The evolution of relations between the Republic of Moldova and Romania in the post electoral period

Corneliu RUSNAC, Imedia Agency: Now I would also like to discuss about another event that took place in Bucharest the other day. Foreign Minister of Romania, Cristian Diaconescu said to the annual meeting of Romanian ambassadors, that the Republic of Moldova is still one of Romania’s regional priorities. Romanian foreign minister explained so that Romania as a member of the European Union, I quote: „will continue to insist on greater EU involvement in Moldova, bearing in mind the current difficult economic period, through European financial assistance”. Cristian Diaconescu reminded that „despite the artificially induced tension in relations with Moldova”, this was again a quote, „the policy of cooperation and support for Chisinau’s European path remained unchanged”. And Cristian Diaconescu also mentioned in another context that Romania never opposed the signing of the Basic Political Treaty and the one regarding the border, just so that these agreements should be negotiated in the European spirit.

Does this mean that we could expect with the change of power in Chisinau the signing of these documents which have overshadowed the Moldovan-Romanian relations for many years? Mr. Ţăranu?

Anatol Ţăranu, Ex-parliamentarian and former Ambassador of Moldova to Russian Federation: I think that in the near future the Foreign Ministry will probably be able to present an agenda regarding the recovery of Moldo-Romanian relations that have been so deeply affected by the communist regime. There are four key issues to be resolved as quickly as possible in relationship with Bucharest. Firstly, it is the abolition of the visa regime, which was imposed in such an uninspired fashion by the current government. The second problem relates to the Agreement on Small Border Traffic, which again is an indisputable priority. There are issues remaining with the two agreements: the Basic Treaty and the Border Treaty, which in my opinion, is not of stringent present day importance and may be at least postponed. These issues should be discussed. I mean that in Bucharest, there are some prominent politicians who to some extent have had their say on these agreements and taking into account the fact that Bucharest is entering a very hot phase, it’s all about the election campaign, and to recede upon an already declared position will create additional difficulties for these political leaders in Bucharest. I do not see the need for Chisinau to insist, in an urgent manner, that these issues be brought into light. From this point of view, I believe that Chisinau would provide a gesture of convenience, and in fact would help Bucharest, including the future relationship with Bucharest, if it postponed at least for some time, approaching these two problems. As for the rest, I do not see what could overshadow the relations between Bucharest and Chisinau in the near future given the new government that is taking power in Chisinau. I am very optimistic in this regard and believe that the Moldo-Romanian relations, relations between Romania and the Republic of Moldova will witness a considerable augmentation in the near future.

Eugen REVENCO, Programs Director APE: I will start from the beginning regarding the treaties. I agree with this classification of documents into those that are not posing conflict or do not arise any difficulties or objections or ones that do not have an important political component within itself and did not create controversy in the society, which are from the beginning likely to be ratified and applicable, with direct effects for citizens. First of all, I am referring to the movement regime, visas. Abolishing the visa regime introduced by Chisinau, the first already indubitable issue, it is clear that this is going to be one of the priorities. Number two, signing the Agreement on Small Border Traffic. And the other agreements that generally should not pose any problems, the Treaty on Border Regime and the Basic Political Treaty are not documents that would produce direct impact on the citizens and are not indeed of the kind that would either give or take food from us. These documents, in order to improve the relations, would be better to be postponed, because negotiations are not about imposing a document, but about making the documents acceptable by the society or likely to be ratified by the legislative. Therefore, it is probably not the best time to launch the negotiations now. Nonetheless, it is good to launch negotiations; it might be that the visions in Chisinau have become more progressive than those promoted before. We know that in a friendly atmosphere it came to the setting of the seal to the Basic Political Treaty, which was ready to be ratified by both legislatives, but which was later sabotaged by the Party of Communists from Chisinau and after nine years it lead to a document that can not even be signed, these would be the visible elements.

It is a very important thing then in building of a European relationship, and we can build this European relationship in two ways, eventually with small steps, without political implication, meaning to absorb the European expertise and knowledge from Romania, which in the cost-quality and cost-effect proportion are most suitable, and the most rewarding. We implement such projects already with the support of the British Embassy. And I can assure you that at the technical level things are going by the small steps policy and changes can be made in order to promote harmonization with the European legislation. Romania has recently undergone this experience and still has memory and knowledge that are transferable. Secondly, if we were already to think of a more sustainable construction, then the same Basic Political Treaty which is being so much discussed about, I do not see the usefulness of a document that would be repeating either the things that already exist or building some relationships that are already in place. Documents that were negotiated in Chisinau in 2000 and the one negotiated by Tarlev and Greceanii governments, led by Voronin, previous governments, are governments that focused on the situation of Romania’s pre-accession to NATO, and pre-accession to EU.

We are now in a situation in which the EU has evolved and the Republic of Moldova intends to deepen its relationship. And this relationship is much more diverse in regard to the political chapter, institutions of cooperation, form of collaboration. Thus, if the bilateral document, bilateral political treaty comes to create some inferior structures or some lower forms of cooperation than those that will be built through the Association Agreement with the European Union, then this Basic Political Treaty is useless, and brings no added value. It would be totally another story, if it had a specificity and would better assist the Republic of Moldova in coming closer to the EU and would hasten the process, than yes, such documents, in such a new European approach, which would complement or would make an even more detailed implementation of our European commitments and getting nearer to the EU, yes, we need this kind of document.

Corneliu RUSNAC: At the same annual meeting of ambassadors in Bucharest, Romanian President Traian Băsescu said that the Republic of Moldova in its European integration process should be included in the same package with the Western Balkan countries. What chances are there for the Republic of Moldova to be part of that package? Mr. Revenco?

Eugen REVENCO: Geographically we are not part of it, today we are already part of the Eastern Partnership and to be real it is very difficult. Then, there are possibilities for differentiation even within the Eastern Partnership. It is just that the Republic of Moldova must meet the basic political criteria. So what are the political criteria? First, the implementation of commitments made 14 years ago to the Council of Europe, for 14 years we have not been fulfilling the commitments that we have assumed to meet in just a few years. Today we are the country with the longest history in implementing our commitments to the Council of Europe. Country that from 2001 onwards has started to produce regression, unfortunately it is true. The Council of Europe in its Parliamentary Assembly has adopted resolutions which were very clearly stating, that this is one of preconditions, the fulfillment of accession commitments is one of preconditions in advancing the relations with the European Union. Perhaps that the Republic of Moldova, not perhaps but definitely the Republic of Moldova has to first of all stabilize its institutions, to promote democratic reforms, including, when we talk about democratic reforms we should not forget about local government, local autonomy, media, judiciary, police, but a new and very sensitive issue would be to eliminate the consequences of the events from the 7th of April, because the 7th of April brought to light not just a series of weaknesses, but more so a series of unsuspected before institutional problems, or better said covered up, but which existed, and their sensitivity was being constantly ignored. Thus, without getting rid of these constant problems we will never be able to evolve. But Moldova is a small country, a country that knows what democratic processes are, knows how the transfer of power takes place. Fortunately, all the regimes in Moldova, unlike other CIS countries, have changed peacefully and the implementation of reforms, if all parties would agree, all political forces will not build formal obstacles, the Republic of Moldova could advance easily and quickly towards a deeper European integration and then having accomplished something and being a success story, we could make the difference with the larger players, with the Ukraine, which is ahead of us today and the other countries from the region. Only then we will able to talk about a similarity and about coming closer or about an European perspective, because in fact what we are interested in about the Balkans, not to be in that package, but so that this membership train does not pass without. And as long as we will be at the back of line of the Eastern group, we can not approach at all, not even this Balkan package.

Anatol Ţăranu: The opinion that was formulated by President Basescu is a very generous proposal and actually proving that this strategy should be embraced by the Republic of Moldovan. What does Basescu say in fact? He told the Republic of Moldova "Moldovan brothers, you should not go to Europe with small steps, you should not temporize this process. You have chances to make a big leap. You should of course make superhuman efforts, to try to do some things that other countries have already done over several years, but you, since you are indeed a small country, a country that does not require large resources to help rise to the level of a country with a European history, you have this chance”. The Western Balkans package implies quite a different approach to the process of European integration for the Republic of Moldova than the Eastern Partnership package does. And from this perspective, Basescu in fact suggests us trying a different path than the one which has already been predestined for us by Brussels and other Western partners. It seems to me that this project is one … yes, it appears to be very idealistic, but is a very ambitious one and it would not be bad if politicians from Chisinau would be a little idealistic and would seek to succeeded on a project of this scale. This would mean that Moldova could overcome the current difficulties at a much faster pace than that which we are being propose in fact by all those who take notice of the developments within the Republic of Moldova.

2. The economic crisis and the chances to receive foreign financial assistance from International Organizations and the European Union

Excerpt from the radio program “Moldovan Foreign Policy Debates” broadcasted on Radio Vocea Basarabiei, on September 16th, and produced by the Foreign Policy Association (APE) in collaboration with Imedia News and Analysis Agency and with the assistance of the German Foundation Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES). The broadcast is aired on Radio Vocea Basarabiei every Sunday.

Corneliu RUSNAC, Imedia Agency: You have discussed about the fact that the economic crisis or the social and economic problems are some of the most serious problems which the Alliance for European Integration will have to face. How could these problems be overcome? What are the conditions, under which the new government could receive financial assistance from international organizations, but also from the European Union, Mr. Popescu?

Nicu POPESCU, Expert at the European Council of Foreign Relations: I think that in this context we see very clearly that interdependence between internal and external policy. Much of the success of the Alliance for European Integration will depend on its ability to promote a foreign policy that would create the conditions for recovery of the Republic of Moldova from this crisis. This means that the Alliance for European Integration will have to mobilize itself in order to make it possible for the Republic of Moldova to receive foreign aid, both from the International Monetary Fund, the European Union and as well from the United States. For example, one problem that we faced in recent years was that the government of the Republic of Moldova did not meet many of the conditions posed by the European Union or the United States, in particular in the political sphere, ones related to media freedom, those regarding the reform of institutions such as police or prosecutor’s office and therefore the Republic of Moldova missed a lot of international financial assistance, both from the United States and the European Union.

In this context, if the new government wants, and its success will depend largely on external assistance, then, without any doubt it will have to move very quickly to create a pluralistic media space, where 3-4 channels of independent media will exist, where the newspapers or nongovernmental organizations have no problems with the Ministry of Justice or the Prosecutor’s Office, therefore, do not break the law. These conditions, namely, the creation of a democratic national context, including very drastic fight against corruption, will make it possible for external partners to help the Republic of Moldova.

There is, however, the risk of a "Ukrainian scenario". In the past five years, after the "Orange Revolution" in the West there was a lot of goodwill towards Ukraine, but because of internal instability, because the "orange" authorities in Ukraine have not fought against corruption, did not reform much of the government system, Ukraine could not benefit from that goodwill and support that the European Union and the United States was ready to offer them. And in the case of the Republic of Moldova there is a danger that political instability, insufficient trust between major political actors, both within the Alliance for European Integration and between the Alliance and the Party of Communists, therefore, these factors of instability may lead to a situation in which the |Republic of Moldova can not organize and mobilize itself in order to receive Western assistance that may come in a context where, today, both the United States and European Union have a very high willingness towards the Republic of Moldova.

Vlad LUPAN, Independent Expert: International funding will come to Moldova in any circumstances only that it will be different and will depend on these very circumstances. For now, given that the situation projects a democratic government in the Republic of Moldova, we can see that international bodies are relatively benign to the Republic of Moldova and to the new government.

We see that the EU is ready to act by the means of its instrument of stability, which implies some assistance for the Republic of Moldova in various fields, technical, but nonetheless is assistance. Besides this, the EU is already preparing a financial assistance for the Republic of Moldova, which may not be so great, but it is important for our country in a period of economic transition and a time of economic crisis. And it seems that the IMF is already transferring money to Moldova and would be ready to find new funding opportunities for the Republic of Moldova.

Of course, a series of administrative and technical problems are involved as well: the government with which to negotiate and the period during which this government will act. If it is a short period it is something, if it is a longer one than it will be a totally different thing and then it is easier, moreover, to work with a government that will be there for a longer period of time. But, we must understand well that these transfers will not happen overnight. First, you have to find a combination out of local elements. In other words, government should take concrete steps at the local level in the Republic of Moldova, with its own forces, on the one hand, and on the other hand, must resort to external borrowing as others did; in fact, many other countries did it, and were relatively successful, taking into account the crisis.

Nicu POPESCU: Political actors in the Republic of Moldova should very well aware of one thing: the Alliance for European Integration will not receive external assistance because one politician or another of the Alliance has beautiful eyes or speaks English well. The Alliance will receive external assistance if it implements reforms that, if it is going to fight corruption, if it liberalizes the political system in the Republic of Moldova. The West does not engage in a geopolitical game in the region. The West is not a priori against the Communists. The assistance that the Republic of Moldova will be able to receive will depend on the willingness for reform shown by the current government and I think that this is the main test. Goodwill exists, but no one will make gifts to the Republic of Moldova because it would be unfair for tax payers, for taxpayers in the United States or in the European Union to pay for the mistakes made by one Moldovan government or another.

Therefore, the Republic of Moldova’s rescue, in this very difficult context, will depend on Moldova’s capacity to reform and I believe that we should not flinch from the responsibilities facing the Republic of Moldova.

Victor CHIRILĂ, Executive Director Ad-interim of APE: I believe that indeed, during medium and long term, the assistance which the West is ready to give us has to be very strictly conditioned by progress in the area of reforms that we have pledged, in recent years, to fulfill. Whether we talk about the Action Plan with the European Union, or whether it is about the Action Plan that we signed with the North Atlantic Alliance, or some commitments we made to the United States to obtain, for example, those funds from the Millennium Challenge program. These reforms have to be implemented and the support should clearly dependent on the progress achieved by our country.

But here I would like to point out that we are in an unusual situation, in an economic and financial crisis, which increasingly puts pressure on the country. It is being talked about the possibility that in the upcoming months the Republic of Moldova could default, thus, to pay its commitments, debts to external partners or to its own citizens. And here, I think there is a need for some kind of indulgence and understanding from the part of international financial bodies – the country needs to avoid such a catastrophe. And here there is no talk of strict conditioning. Such conditionality should aim at medium to long-term reforms, not short term. The Republic of Moldova and the Alliance for European Integration needs a credit of trust from the West and support, because it is not only about the image and the performance of the Alliance, but also the image of the West and primarily that of the European Union.

We should not forget that the Republic of Moldova is part of the so-called Eastern Partnership, which was launched in May and was released with big question marks about the viability and success of the new regional initiative. However, if the EU wants this new initiative to succeed, it must understand that here, in the Republic of Moldova, its own credibility is also at stake and it needs to intervene sometimes, leaving aside other considerations of medium and long term. There is a need to be aware that people in this country, the Republic of Moldova, have relied on European integration, have relied on a new generation of politicians, who are attached to European values and are ready to go all the way in the European integration process, but both image and destiny of these politicians are strictly linked to the image and credibility of the European Union. If the EU’s credibility will suffer, these politicians’ credibility will suffer as well.