Politics
How Moscow might re-divide the North Caucasus before letting part of it go
Reading Time: 5 minutesEven Russians who are now talking about the need to let the North Caucasus go are suggesting that the borders of some or all of the existing non-Russian republics need to be changed to protect the ethnic Russian communities who still live there, but few have provided details on what a map of a “post-Russian” North Caucasus might look like.
By Paul Goble
Even Russians who are now talking about the need to let the North Caucasus go are suggesting that the borders of some or all of the existing non-Russian republics need to be changed to protect the ethnic Russian communities who still live there, but few have provided details on what a map of a “post-Russian” North Caucasus might look like.
Today, however, a Russian blogger has offered just such a map, one that in place of the “complex mosaic” of federation subjects would have two krays (with capitals in Krasnodar and Pyatigorsk) and three independent states, Alaniya, a Confederation of Chechnya and Ingushetia, and a Daghestani Federation (hiker1.livejournal.com/51068.html).
While most Russian commentators say allowing any part of the North Caucasus to become independent would threaten the territorial integrity of the country as a whole, Hiker1 says that ever more ordinary Russians have changed their view on that, largely in response to developments over the past year.
The most important of these in this regard, he continues, was the reaction of the powers that be to the forest fires that swept over much of the country. Most officials in Moscow and elsewhere “demonstrated a complete indifference” to saving the land from the fires, evidence that “our own land is no longer holy and valuable for us.”
And that official indifference to the land was in sharp contrast to the actions of the powers that be with regard to the North Caucasus. There, Hiker1 writes, “the powers that be have stubbornly attempted to keep within Russia some microscopic borderlands that are in revolt by pouring in far more money.”
“The absurdity of a situation” in which some places in the North Caucasus “recall Dubai” as a result of the influx of Russian money but nonetheless continue to fight and to demand special treatment in Russian cities, Hiker1 argues, means that Moscow must take steps, including changing the territorial divisions of that region and granting independence to parts of it.
In his post, Hiker1 provides a map showing how he believes the North Caucasus should be redivided, and then he discusses both the benefits Russia and Russians would reap from such new arrangements and the special provisions Moscow must insist on in the course of making this change to ensure Russia’s security.
Hiker1 suggests that there would be 15 “positive consequences” for Russia from the independence of Daghestan and a combined Chechnya and Ingushetia. First, their independence would cost Russia “only 0.3 percent” of its territory while putting outside “almost all peoples ‘who aren’t being integrated.’” There would be few Russian migrants because there are few Russians left there.
Second, the independence of these republics would lead to “a reduction in Islamophobia and anti-Caucasian attitudes in Russia.” Third, Chechen separatism would shift away from the Islamic projects toward national ones and national ones which would be ever less anti-Russian than those in the past.
Fourth, the removal of these two republics from Russia would force Moscow to be more honest about the country’s ongoing demographic decline. Fifth, by ending the conflicts there, this step would save Russia enormous amounts of budget funds that could be better spent on Russian needs.
Sixth, the independence of these two republics would force Moscow to give preference to the use of the sea route between Astrakhan oblast and Resht in Iran rather than rail lines through Daghestan and Azerbaijan. Seventh, with Chechnya-Ingushetia and Daghestan outside its borders, Russia would find it easier to get a visa-free regime with the European Union.
Eighth, the West would lose a major source of leverage on Russia. Ninth, Russians could turn their attention to more important domestic issues. Tenth, Russia by changing some of the borders of these two state could insure that it would retain most of the oil fields on the left bank of the Terek.
Eleventh, Russia would be able to end the “uncontrolled flow” of economic migrants and refugees from these two countries into Russian cities. Twelfth, “the struggle with ethnic criminal groups” would become easier. Thirteenth, Russia could avoid future conflicts on its own territory by drawing borders so they would be on foreign soil.
Fourteenth, by eliminating from its citizenry people who are not inclined to integrate, Russia would be able to eliminate the propiska system and thereby promote migration. And fifteenth, Russia would not have to face any more of the “Islamic revolts” it has had to deal with in the military in recent years.
With regard to Osetia, Hiker1 says that combining part of North Osetia with South Osetia which is already independent would help Russia deal with “the headache” it has had since the August 2008 war. On the one hand, “Alaniya, surrounded by such neighbors as Ingushetia and Georgia would simply be fated to have allied relations with Russia.”
And on the other, he continues, “the countries of the West” which might object at the beginning “would be [ultimately] forced to recognize the new state,” something they have not done with South Osetia alone. Moreover, Russia would only gain by acquiring “the image of a peacekeeper country and not an aggressor.”
According to Hiker1, the other ethnic groups in the North Caucasus would not be given independence or have their own republics, although he suggests that many of them, including the Armenians, Shapsugs, Cossacks, Kabardins, Circassians, Balkars, Abazas, Karachays, and Nogays should get “national districts” in Kuban and Pyatigorsk krays.
Such arrangements, he continues, would have certain positive features: First, “in a single subject of the Russian Federation are united related peoples, the Circassians and Kabardins and also the Balkars and Karachays,” thus reducing demands for the formation of larger republics of one kind or another.
Second, “the lowering of the status of the territorial unit from republic to districts will be compensated for by the return of elections for the heads of local self-administration.” Third, this arrangement will allow all these peoples “the free development of language and culture within the borders of the district.” And fourth, these arrangements will “reduce the risk of violating the rights of ‘non-titular’ peoples, something which now takes place in all national republics.”
To ensure security for Russia in this new situation, Hiker1 says, Russia would retain four military bases on the territories of the new independent states, secure agreements from the parties not to seek recognition of or compensation for past genocides, and arrange for peaceful exchange of populations in border areas.
Moreover, he says, Moscow should “include all three new states in the Organization of the Collective Security Treaty and include Osetia-Alania in the free trade area. And Russia should send border guards to the new states just as it did in the case of Tajikistan until relatively recently.
Even with all these arrangements, Hiker1 says, there may be problems. There could be some growth in separatist attitudes elsewhere in Russia although he suggests that this threat is less likely than many assume. Moreover, there could be some expanded or unpredictable refugee flows, although there too a carefully considered Russian policy can limit that difficulty.
Finally, he notes, there is the danger of the intensification of the Circassian question, given that there are more than 800,000 Circassians in Russia and more than six million of them living in Turkey and the Middle East. Moscow must ensure that any “return” not undermine the existing ethnic balance.
According to Hiker1, “the idea of ‘Greater Circassia’ probably will remain a marginal one, but this question must not be ignored,” lest inattention create a situation in which demographic changes have the most serious political consequences.
It is not clear just who Hiker1 is, but the detail with which he discusses these issues suggests that he may be part of or at least has close friends in the security agencies where position papers on such issues likely are being prepared in case the powers that be decide to yield to the logic of the position he advances.
Both that logic and the sophistication of his discussion about an issue that is one of the most sensitive in the Russian Federation at the present time mean that they merit attention even if Moscow does not change the map of the North Caucasus or if the North Caucasians ultimately change it in some other way.
A new football club has earned a leading place in the UEFA Champions League groups and starred in the headlines of worldwide football news yesterday. The Football Club Sheriff Tiraspol claimed a win with the score 2-1 against Real Madrid on the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid. That made Sheriff Tiraspol the leader in Group D of the Champions League, including the football club in the groups of the most important European interclub competition for the first time ever.
International media outlets called it a miracle, a shock and a historic event, while strongly emphasizing the origin of the team and the existing political conflict between the two banks of the Dniester. “Football club from a pro-Russian separatist enclave in Moldova pulls off one of the greatest upsets in Champions League history,” claimed the news portals. “Sheriff crushed Real!” they said.
Moldovans made a big fuss out of it on social media, splitting into two groups: those who praised the team and the Republic of Moldova for making history and those who declared that the football club and their merits belong to Transnistria – a problematic breakaway region that claims to be a separate country.
Both groups are right and not right at the same time, as there is a bunch of ethical, political, social and practical matters that need to be considered.
Is it Moldova?
First of all, every Moldovan either from the right or left bank of Dniester (Transnistria) is free to identify himself with this achievement or not to do so, said Vitalie Spranceana, a sociologist, blogger, journalist and urban activist. According to him, boycotting the football club for being a separatist team is wrong.
At the same time, “it’s an illusion to think that territory matters when it comes to football clubs,” Spranceana claimed. “Big teams, the ones included in the Champions League, have long lost their connection both with the countries in which they operate, and with the cities in which they appeared and to which they linked their history. […] In the age of globalized commercial football, teams, including the so-called local ones, are nothing more than global traveling commercial circuses, incidentally linked to cities, but more closely linked to all sorts of dirty, semi-dirty and cleaner cash flows.”
What is more important in this case is the consistency, not so much of citizens, as of politicians from the government who have “no right to celebrate the success of separatism,” as they represent “the national interests, not the personal or collective pleasures of certain segments of the population,” believes the political expert Dionis Cenusa. The victory of FC Sheriff encourages Transnistrian separatism, which receives validation now, he also stated.
“I don’t know how it happens that the “proud Moldovans who chose democracy”, in their enthusiasm for Sheriff Tiraspol’s victory over Real Madrid, forget the need for total and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria!” declared the journalist Vitalie Ciobanu.
Nowadays, FC Sheriff Tiraspol has no other choice than to represent Moldova internationally. For many years, the team used the Moldovan Football Federation in order to be able to participate in championships, including international ones. That is because the region remains unrecognised by the international community. However, the club’s victory is presented as that of Transnistria within the region, without any reference to the Republic of Moldova, its separatist character being applied in this case especially.
Is it a victory?
In fact, FC Sheriff Tiraspol joining the Champions League is a huge image breakthrough for the Transnistrian region, as the journalist Madalin Necsutu claimed. It is the success of the Tiraspol Club oligarchic patrons. From the practical point of view, FC Sheriff Tiraspol is a sports entity that serves its own interests and the interests of its owners, being dependent on the money invested by Tiraspol (but not only) oligarchs.
Here comes the real dilemma: the Transnistrian team, which is generously funded by money received from corruption schemes and money laundering, is waging an unequal fight with the rest of the Moldovan football clubs, the journalist also declared. The Tiraspol team is about to raise 15.6 million euro for reaching the Champions League groups and the amounts increase depending on their future performance. According to Necsutu, these money will go directly on the account of the club, not to the Moldovan Football Federation, creating an even bigger gab between FC Sheriff and other football clubs from Moldova who have much more modest financial possibilities.
“I do not see anything useful for Moldovan football, not a single Moldovan player is part of FC Sheriff Tiraspol. I do not see anything beneficial for the Moldovan Football Federation or any national team.”
Is it only about football?
FC Sheriff Tiraspol, with a total estimated value of 12.8 million euros, is controlled by Victor Gusan and Ilya Kazmala, being part of Sheriff Holding – a company that controls the trade of wholesale, retail food, fuels and medicine by having monopolies on these markets in Transnistria. The holding carries out car trading activities, but also operates in the field of construction and real estate. Gusan’s people also hold all of the main leadership offices in the breakaway region, from Parliament to the Prime Minister’s seat or the Presidency.
The football club is supported by a holding alleged of smuggling, corruption, money laundering and organised crime. Moldovan media outlets published investigations about the signals regarding the Sheriff’s holding involvement in the vote mobilization and remuneration of citizens on the left bank of the Dniester who participated in the snap parliamentary elections this summer and who were eager to vote for the pro-Russian socialist-communist bloc.
Considering the above, there is a great probability that the Republic of Moldova will still be represented by a football club that is not identified as being Moldovan, being funded from obscure money, growing in power and promoting the Transnistrian conflict in the future as well.
Photo: unknown
Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova, Natalia Gavrilita, together with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nicu Popescu, pay an official visit to Brussels, between September 27-28, being invited by High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell Fontelles.
Today, Prime Minister had a meeting with Charles Michel, President of the European Council. The Moldovan PM thanked the senior European official for the support of the institution in strengthening democratic processes, reforming the judiciary and state institutions, economic recovery and job creation, as well as increasing citizens’ welfare. Natalia Gavrilita expressed her confidence that the current visit laid the foundations for boosting relations between the Republic of Moldova and the European Union, so that, in the next period, it would be possible to advance high-level dialogues on security, justice and energy. Officials also exchanged views on priorities for the Eastern Partnership Summit, to be held in December.
“The EU is open to continue to support the Republic of Moldova and the ambitious reform agenda it proposes. Moldova is an important and priority partner for us,” said Charles Michel.
Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita also met with Paolo Gentiloni, European Commissioner for Economy, expressing her gratitude for the support received through the OMNIBUS macro-financial assistance program. The two officials discussed the need to advance the recovery of money from bank fraud, to strengthen sustainable mechanisms for supporting small and medium-sized enterprises in Moldova, and to standardize the customs and taxes as one of the main conditions for deepening cooperation with the EU in this field.
Additionally, Prime Minister spoke about the importance of the Eastern Partnership and the Deep Free Trade Agreement, noting that the Government’s policies are aimed at developing an economic model aligned with the European economic model, focused on digitalization, energy efficiency and the green economy.
A common press release of the Moldovan Prime Minister with High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the Commission, Josep Borrell Fontelles, took place today, where the agenda of Moldova’s reforms and the main priorities to focus on in the coming months were presented: judiciary reform; fighting COVID-19 pandemic; promoting economic recovery and conditions for growth and job creation; strengthening state institutions and resilience of the country.
“I am here to relaunch the dialogue between my country and the European Union. Our partnership is strong, but I believe there is room for even deeper cooperation and stronger political, economic and sectoral ties. I am convinced that this partnership is the key to the prosperity of our country and I hope that we will continue to strengthen cooperation.”
The Moldovan delegation met Didier Reynders, European Commissioner for Justice. Tomorrow, there are scheduled common meetings with Oliver Varhelyi, European Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement, Adina Valean, European Commissioner for Transport and Kadri Simson, European Commissioner for Energy.
Prime Minister will also attend a public event, along with Katarina Mathernova, Deputy Director-General for Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations.
Photo: gov.md
Politics
Promo-LEX about Maia Sandu’s UN speech: The president must insist on appointing a rapporteur to monitor the situation of human rights in Transnistria
The President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu, pays an official visit to New York, USA, between September 21-22. There, she participates in the work of the United Nations General Assembly. According to a press release of the President’s Office, the official will deliver a speech at the tribune of the United Nations.
In this context, the Promo-LEX Association suggested the president to request the appointment of a special rapporteur in order to monitor the situation of human rights in the Transnistrian region. According to Promo-LEX, the responsibility for human rights violations in the Transnistrian region arises as a result of the Russian Federation’s military, economic and political control over the Tiraspol regime.
“We consider it imperative to insist on the observance of the international commitments assumed by the Russian Federation regarding the withdrawal of the armed forces and ammunition from the territory of the country,” the representatives of Promo-LEX stated. They consider the speech before the UN an opportunity “to demand the observance of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights by the Russian Federation with reference to this territory which is in its full control.”
“It is important to remember about the numerous cases of murder, torture, ill-treatment, forced enlistment in illegal military structures, the application of pseudo-justice in the Transnistrian region, all carried out under the tacit agreement of the Russian Federation. These findings stem from dozens of rulings and decisions issued by the European Court of Human Rights, which found that Russia is responsible for human rights violations in the region.”
The association representatives expressed their hope that the president of the country would give priority to issues related to the human rights situation in the Transnistrian region and would call on relevant international actors to contribute to guaranteeing fundamental human rights and freedoms throughout Moldova.
They asked Maia Sandu to insist on the observance of the obligation to evacuate the ammunition and the military units of the Russian Federation from the territory of the Republic of Moldova, to publicly support the need for the Russian Federation to implement the ECtHR rulings on human rights violations in the Transnistrian region, and to request the appointment of an UN Human Rights Council special rapporteur to monitor the human rights situation in the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova.
**
The Promo-LEX Association concluded that 14 out of 25 actions planned within the National Action Plan for the years 2018–2022 concerning respecting human rights in Transnistria were not carried out by the responsible authorities.
The association expressed its concern and mentioned that there are a large number of delays in the planned results. “There is a lack of communication and coordination between the designated institutions, which do not yet have a common vision of interaction for the implementation of the plan.”
Promo-LEX requested the Government of the Republic of Moldova to re-assess the reported activities and to take urgent measures, “which would exclude superficial implementation of future activities and increase the level of accountability of the authorities.”
Photo: peacekeeping.un.org
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