Author: Ion Marandici, Political and Security Statewatch, Nr. 6, 2008

Overview

The balance of power remains unstable in Gagauz Popular Assembly after the March regional elections. In Chisinau Municipal Council, the situation is similar. The new reconfiguration of power distribution in Chisinau Municipal Council highlighted possible future scenarios at national level.

Controlling food, fuel and energy prices was the main challenge for the Government during the last two months. A short overview of referenda in Republic of Moldova shows that any group of citizens wishing to initiate a referendum will face resistance on behalf of the authorities. This year, Liberal Democrats managed to gather over 200 000 signatures, but the Central Electoral Commission required 350 000 signatures a few days before the deadline in order to initiate the referendum.

Gagauzian puzzle and turmoil in Chisinau Municipal Council: from local to national politics

Electing the presidents of the district councils was the major stumble block in many of the rayons across the country after the June 2007 elections. In two thirds of the districts, democratic coalitions were formed and opposition candidates won the seats of district council presidents. In many of the rayons coalitions depend on the will of one or two councilors. The most notable examples are the Gagauzian region and the situation in the Chisinau Municipal Council.

The elections for the local Gagauzian Popular Assembly took place in March 2008. However, the situation in the autonomous region is tensioned and unclear. The major task for the newly elected local deputies was the election of a chairman of the Assembly. Forming a majority in the local parliament proved to be extremely difficult and the majorities formed were highly unstable. The first attempt to elect the chairman of the region’s parliament failed. After the third attempt, the Communist candidate Demian Karaseny seemed to be the frontrunner with one-vote advantage (18 from 35). But since a few ballots were missing his election was cancelled. The fourth attempt to elect the president brought to the front the Ravnopravie candidate, Serghey Chernev, supported by Nikolay Dudoglo and Mikhail Formuzal, the current head of the executive branch in the region. Still, those are not accepted by the Communist deputies who accused the newly formed majority of fraud and and maintains that Serghey Chernev is the legal chairman of the Popular Assembly. They brought the case before the court and on June 24, the Appeal Court from Comrat decided that Chernev was elected correctly.

The Gagauz autonomous region enjoys extensive prerogatives compared to the other districts, but the autonomy did not lead to prosperity. In the 1990-1995 period, Gagauz movement for autonomy was very strong and the danger of an armed conflict was present. After the autonomous status was granted, the pro-autonomy movement lost influence and in power came Gagauz leaders seeking closer cooperation with central authorities. Those leaders got the support from the Communist party.

The stability in the Gagauz region is and will be under threat because the Formuzal group and the Dudoglo group demand more autonomy for the region and often apply a blackmail strategy in relation with the central authorities.

According to certain press information, “Edinnaya Gagauzia” would seek to obtain the same status as the Transnistrian region and proportional representation in Moldova’s Parliament. The Gagauz declare they do not have representatives in the state’s higher offices and thus lack the capacity to influence state policies. However, it should be mentioned that the governor (bashkan) participates at all government sessions and is consulted on all laws and governmental decisions. Moreover, usually representatives of the autonomous region are included in various high ranking committees. The recent discovery of a stockroom for weapons and some light arms near Comrat fueled the fear in Chisinau that the situation in the region might destabilize.

To a certain extent, the post-electoral situation in the Gagauz autonomous region is similar to the political state of affairs in the Chisinau Municipal Council. After the June 2007 elections, a governing majority was formed by Liberals, Democrats, Our Moldova Alliance party and the Christian Democrats. Subsequently, the Christian-Democrats left the coalition and were replaced by the Social Democrats. On June 6, the Social Democrats left the coalition and the balance of power changed. This allowed for the dismissal of the Liberal chairman of the Municipal Council and the election of Eduard Musuc as the new chairman with the support of the Communists. Ghimpu did not accept the decision, because of certain procedure infringements and claimed to be the legitimate chairman. Thus, during June there were a few attempts to hold sessions of the Council, but the result was that each chairman was meeting only with half of the Council. The climax was reached when armed persons entered the session room at the end of June and tried to violently defend their representatives.

There are a few conclusions that should be drawn from the crisis in the Gagauz autonomy and in the Chisinau Municipal Council.

First conclusion is that in Moldovan politics, stable coalitions at the local level are a myth. The two above-mentioned cases show that certain parties would negotiate and reach compromise easily if they are offered greater advantages in terms of offices, favorable decisions etc. It is clear that Social Democratic Party left the democratic coalition because Communists promised them the office of chairman. His candidature was supported by the Humanist Party, the Christian Democrats and Ravnopravie. The paradox is that Musuc’s party has only five representatives (from 51) in the Council.

Secondly, very often the incumbent of an elected function is not willing to quit it even if a decision in this sense was adopted. Political opponents often prefer to sue each other rather than leave peacefully. In case of Ghimpu’s dismissal, the law was not providing how many members have the right to dismiss the president of the Council. This loophole led to a bitter debate that lasted the whole month. Communists used this method very often in Chisinau after their electoral defeat in June 2007 elections.

Thirdly, we may presume that after the future parliamentary elections in February or March 2009, the pattern we have observed in the Chisinau Municipal Council might be repeated. That means Communists, Christian Democrats (PPCD), Social Democrats (PSDM) and the Democrats (PDM) might form a governing majority. This in case PPCD and PSDM will overcome the 6% electoral threshold. The meeting at the end of the month of Eduard Musuc with President Vladimir Voronin proves that more likely before the 2009 parliamentary elections Communists will not attack PSDM and that the scenario in the Chisinau Municipal Council was realized also with the help of President Voronin, who was attacking continuously the winners of the 2007 local elections in Chisinau. On the other side the Liberals (PL), Liberal Democrats (PLDM) and Our Moldova Alliance party (AMN) seem to be future coalition partners. The recent declarations of Dumitru Braghis about ongoing negotiations between Social Democrats and Democrats show that parties face major difficulties in finding a formula of cooperation, after the ban of the electoral blocks.

Controlling prices – the ultimate interventionist tool to fight inflation

The major challenge in June for the Government was the rising prices. Food and fuel prices were rising in the whole region and this month a wave of price increases took place in the country. From July 1, energy and the natural gas imported from Ukraine and Russian Federation will become more expansive. There are desperate attempts on behalf of the government to control the inflation. The National Bank is following the recommendations of International Monetary Fund, trying to change its monetary policy in order to fight inflation. Its policies are based on the assumption that inflation is first of all a monetary phenomenon. Usually, when inflation was hitting the national economy, the currency was loosing value too. Now the situation is new, while the inflation is rising, the Leu is gaining value against the US Dollar and the Euro. It seems the only “commodity” not affected by inflation is money.

Price for natural gas deliveries will increase to 260 US dollars for m3. The visits of the Moldovan official to Moscow show that despite the deep friendship between the Communist authorities and Russian authorities, gas prices are not controllable. Even if the new premier Greceanii visited Moscow and met with Vladimir Putin and Alexei Miller (director of Gazprom) the result of the visit was discouraging. The gas prices will rise and at the end of the year will reach 300 USD per m3.

In case of food products, prices can be controlled. It is food prices that affect the popularity of any government in any country of the world. In Moldova, the Government showed it is willing to control some prices. This was the case of sugar. At the beginning of the month the price for sugar increased with almost 50%, apparently without any obvious reason. The Government accused shadow groups of trying to destabilize the economy and undertook harsh measures against the speculators. The same happened in case of meat. The country is importing meat from other countries and the Government met with major importers and reached an agreement of lowering import taxes especially, for the so-called “social” meat. So, the prices for meat increased and then decreased slightly after the intervention of the Government.

The bread industry is dominated by the state owned company “Franzeluta” and after the drought from last year the Government managed to keep prices for bread low. Still, farmers complain that state is buying wheat for the State Reserves at low prices thus making the life of the producers harder. We might presume that under these circumstances many farmers might renounce next year to cultivate wheat. In case of rice, Government was powerless and rice became over night an expansive product.

Government intervened also in the construction sector. After creating a new Ministry responsible for the building industry, it fined the economic agents increasing artificially the price for it. The situation is similar to the bread industry, only in construction sector the major producer is Lafarge Company, owned but foreign private investors. So, the Government operated several controls and the prices stabilized. On the one hand, the Government follows the recommendations of IMF and on the other hand the Government intervenes on the market when it deems it is necessary to protect certain consumers.

Regarding the situation in agriculture, major experts forecast a rich harvest this year. That means that unlike the last year the risks of a food crisis are very low. However, in June pensioners protested a few times in front of the Government demanding an increase of pensions. Some pensioners receive as pension the equivalent of 40 US dollars and in that context it can happen that popular discontent might increase.

Referendum – a ‘rare bird’ in Moldova

Democracy in Moldova has its specificities. Elements of direct democracy are almost absent. Referenda as a form of direct democracy are not welcome in Moldova. Until 2008, two referenda were organized in Moldova.

The first one in 1994, called improperly sociological survey, formulated a question in a very abstract manner. It asked the citizens of Moldova, whether they are in favor of the independence and territorial integrity of the country. 75% of the participants voted for independence and territorial integrity. Actually, the referendum aimed to give a blow to the unionist movement at that time and to show that the population is not in favor of a re-unification with Romania. The democratic exercise had no juridical consequences and in fact, it was a simple survey.

The second referendum was a consultative one. It was organized on May 23, 2000 at the initiative of President Petru Lucinschi. That time, President Lucinschi sought to obtain popular support for his initiative of extending presidential prerogatives. 58% of the participants supported the proposal. However, the second referendum in the history of the Moldovan state was criticized by major parliamentary parties and politicians, who feared of loosing influence. Main critics pointed at the fact that at the referendum the turnout was lower than the legal one (of 60%). The funny thing is that the referendum had as consequence the opposite; it determined the opponents of President Lucinschi to put forward ideas of a parliamentary republic in which the president would be elected by the parliament. Subsequently, Moldova became a parliamentary republic. None of the two referenda was a popular initiative, but rather coming from above.

The third attempt was initiated by the extra-parliamentary Liberal Democratic Party and had as object the way the President and Parliament are elected. Liberal Democrats proposed the direct election of the President and the election of half of the Parliament based on the majoritarian system. After a three month campaign, the Liberal Democratic Party gathered 220 000 signatures, but just a few days before the deadline the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) announced that 350 000 signatures are needed for a referendum to be initiated. Such an attitude of the authorities puts at risk any future attempt to initiate a referendum at the grassroots. The arbitrary behavior of the CEC shows that the people of Moldova probably will have no chance to initiate a referendum.

Prognosis

The last political developments in the Chisinau Municipal Council prove that the major party in the country renounced to its strategy of “total opposition” and is willing to negotiate and form governing coalitions at the local level. The Party of Communists will be much more open to negotiations also after the elections in 2009. That means the results will count less and rather the alliances will determine the composition of the next Government and the name of the future president. The last coalition in the Gagauz Popular Assembly and the new one in Chisinau Municipal Council will be unstable since they do not represent large majorities. The inflationist tendencies may put pressure on public spending and it is obvious the Government will try to respond to inflation by controlling prices for most important food products. However, the popular discontent will rise, mainly among pensioners as it happened in the Transnistrian region. It became clear that until the elections in 2009 no referendum will take place and that means current electoral system will remain unchanged.