{"id":449072,"date":"2020-12-26T19:40:35","date_gmt":"2020-12-26T19:40:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/?p=449072"},"modified":"2020-12-26T19:54:43","modified_gmt":"2020-12-26T19:54:43","slug":"the-world-bank-a-significant-economic-contraction-is-expected-in-2020-and-a-slow-recovery-in-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/the-world-bank-a-significant-economic-contraction-is-expected-in-2020-and-a-slow-recovery-in-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"The World Bank: &#8220;A significant economic contraction is expected in 2020, and a slow recovery in 2021.&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading Time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 4<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minutes<\/span><\/span><p>An series of reports presenting the economic <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/country\/moldova\/brief\/moldova-economic-update\">overview<\/a> of the Republic of Moldova were published recently by the <strong>World Bank<\/strong>. The reports&#8217; main conclusion emphasised that <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">the COVID-19 pandemic and this year&#8217;s drought <em>&#8220;have drastically worsened the outlook for Moldova with a significant economic contraction expected in 2020, and a slow recovery in 2021,&#8221;<\/em><\/span><\/span> as it mentioned in the <a href=\"http:\/\/pubdocs.worldbank.org\/en\/152271608708764457\/Moldova-Economic-Update-Dec-22.pdf\">Moldova Economic Update for Winter 2020<\/a> of the financial institution.<\/p>\n<p>What is more, the uncertainty related to the duration of the pandemic could have a further negative impact on firms, workers and households.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Poverty is expected to increase as households face the impact of the crisis, including loss of employment and earnings, a reduction in remittances receipts, and the return of vulnerable migrants from abroad who might struggle to find employment.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>First, the economic activity of the country dropped in the first three quarters of 2020, driven primarily by a reduction in households\u2019 consumption and stocks. The lockdown measures have hindered trade and industrial production, while a severe drought has impacted agriculture, as the Word Bank overview stated. Therefore, <strong><span style=\"color: #993300;\">a<\/span><span style=\"color: #993300;\">n economic contraction is expected in 2020 of a magnitude not seen since the great global recession in 2009.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The World Bank <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/pubdocs.worldbank.org\/en\/152271608708764457\/Moldova-Economic-Update-Dec-22.pdf\">Economic Update for Winter 2020<\/a><\/strong> and the <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/pubdocs.worldbank.org\/en\/185631608708604109\/Moldova-Economic-Update-Special-Focus-Dec-22.pdf\">Assessment of the impact of COVID-19 and the drought on jobs, firms, and households<\/a> <\/strong>presented the following figures:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The GDP is estimated to decline by <span style=\"color: #993300;\">7.2%<\/span> in 2020;<\/li>\n<li>Employment, earnings losses and remittances will continue to decline due to the lockdown in Moldova and its main economic partner, that hitting households hard;<\/li>\n<li>Mainly, employment is expected to drop by almost <span style=\"color: #993300;\">8%<\/span> in 2020, with an estimated 70 000 jobs lost, of which the majority in trade and hospitality, followed by agriculture and industry;<\/li>\n<li>Even with an adjustment of intermediate costs to make up for reduced sales, still almost<span style=\"color: #993300;\"> half of firms <span style=\"color: #000000;\">(<\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">m<\/span>ostly micro) may need to cut costs to remain profitable &#8211; large firms are expected to experience the largest decline in profits, micro firms will be forced to adjust their labor costs;<\/li>\n<li>Poverty is expected to increase to about <span style=\"color: #993300;\">13%<\/span><span style=\"color: #993300;\">, as <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">17%<\/span> of households reported a reduction of income from work, 8.3% &#8211; a reduction of remittances from abroad, and 3.6% &#8211; the withholding of salaries, pensions, and social benefits, according to the 2020 Household Budget Survey;<\/li>\n<li>Most of the investment activity has been postponed or cancelled due to uncertainty;<\/li>\n<li>Depressed global demand, combined with the recent drought, are expected to contain exports;<\/li>\n<li>Imports are also expected to shrink due to anaemic consumption throughout the year;<\/li>\n<li>The combination of the pandemic and the severe drought is expected to affect most sectors of the economy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div id=\"attachment_449073\" style=\"width: 1081px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-449073\" class=\"size-full wp-image-449073\" src=\"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/short-term.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1071\" height=\"745\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/short-term.jpg 1071w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/short-term-300x209.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/short-term-768x534.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/short-term-400x278.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1071px) 100vw, 1071px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-449073\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: worldbank.org<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"attachment_449075\" style=\"width: 861px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-449075\" class=\"wp-image-449075 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/job-loss.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"851\" height=\"764\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/job-loss.jpg 851w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/job-loss-300x269.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/job-loss-768x689.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/job-loss-400x359.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 851px) 100vw, 851px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-449075\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: worldbank.org<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The increasing number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths in 2020 have created health and social emergencies and put a great strain on the economy, as it is mentioned in the World Bank assessment.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;In addition, the most severe drought since 2000 has hit the country, with agricultural production falling by more than 30% in the third quarter compared to the same period in 2019.&#8221;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>According to the World Bank&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/pubdocs.worldbank.org\/en\/152271608708764457\/Moldova-Economic-Update-Dec-22.pdf\">data<\/a>, the imports have contracted by <span style=\"color: #993300;\">16.4%<\/span>, <em>&#8220;which has more than compensated the decline in export (-7.4%) and in remittances (-4.6%).&#8221;<\/em> The contraction happened due to lower energy prices and weak domestic demand in the first half of 2020. <em>&#8220;As a result, the current account deficit (CAD) has narrowed to 4.4% of GDP, which is almost 2.5 times smaller than during the same period in 2019.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_449076\" style=\"width: 1108px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-449076\" class=\"wp-image-449076 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/remittances.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1098\" height=\"705\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/remittances.jpg 1098w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/remittances-300x193.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/remittances-768x493.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/remittances-400x257.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1098px) 100vw, 1098px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-449076\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: worldbank.org<\/p><\/div>\n<p>On the other hand, the existing 2020 CAD was mainly financed by public debt instruments. <em>&#8220;By September, external debt reached around 65% of GDP, 3% higher than in 2019,&#8221;<\/em> the report said.<\/p>\n<p>Another aspect pointed out in the report is related to the fiscal situation: fiscal revenues decrease by <span style=\"color: #993300;\">1.7%<\/span>, due to declining corporate income tax and VAT on imports. At the same time, public spending increased as the result of COVID-19 mitigation measured introduced by authorities. Public investment contracted by about <span style=\"color: #993300;\">4%<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;As a result, the fiscal deficit will reach 4.5% of GDP, pushing the public and publicly guaranteed debt up by 4% to 31.4% of GDP,&#8221;<\/em> is concluded in the report. That is higher than historical averages, but less than half of what was planned in the state budget law.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Going forward, the fiscal stance is expected to be challenging due to a decline in revenues as businesses struggle and households suffer from weak job creation and wage growth. As a result, public debt is expected to increase rapidly, but still remaining low by international standards.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<div id=\"attachment_449074\" style=\"width: 1042px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-449074\" class=\"wp-image-449074 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/fiscal.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1032\" height=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/fiscal.jpg 1032w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/fiscal-300x223.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/fiscal-768x572.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/fiscal-400x298.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1032px) 100vw, 1032px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-449074\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: worldbank.org<\/p><\/div>\n<p>**<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><strong>Even though the forecasts for 2021 seem optimistic, the pandemic is still expected to keep the economy below its potential. <\/strong><\/span>Economic growth is expected to reach <span style=\"color: #000080;\">3.8%<\/span> in 2021, thanks to the development of vaccines. <em>&#8220;Consumer and investment confidence are expected to rebound thanks to the resumption of remittances, increase in social transfers, and accommodative monetary stance,&#8221;<\/em> the World Bank reports stated. Most sectors, including agriculture, are also expected to recover, reaching the 2019 levels in 2022. The current account deficit will gradually widen as the economy accelerates, as well as the<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>average<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>inflation that <em>&#8220;is expected to be below the target of 5% in 2020-2021, but to pick up as the recovery strengthens.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The economic recovery though, relies on <span style=\"color: #993300;\">favourable conditions linked to vaccine rollout, but also on the ability of the authorities to advance long-term structural reforms:<\/span> ensuring fiscal efficiency and access to external financing, continue justice and governance reform agenda, along with reforms in the non-banking financial sector, market and price regulations, anti-corruption and rule of law, as well bolstering productivity in private sectors.<\/p>\n<p>Photo: Kevin Schneider |Pixabay<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading Time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 4<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minutes<\/span><\/span>An series of reports presenting the economic overview of the Republic of Moldova were published recently by the World Bank. The reports&#8217; main conclusion emphasised that the COVID-19 pandemic and this year&#8217;s drought &#8220;have drastically worsened the outlook for Moldova with a significant economic contraction expected in 2020, and a slow recovery in 2021,&#8221; as [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":448064,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,3,4,56],"tags":[77,35,801,27,351],"class_list":["post-449072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-politics","category-society","category-reportaje","tag-economy","tag-important","tag-indicators","tag-moldova","tag-world-bank"],"content_social_share":"<span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading Time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 4<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minutes<\/span><\/span><p>An series of reports presenting the economic <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/country\/moldova\/brief\/moldova-economic-update\">overview<\/a> of the Republic of Moldova were published recently by the <strong>World Bank<\/strong>. The reports&#8217; main conclusion emphasised that <span style=\"color: #993300;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">the COVID-19 pandemic and this year&#8217;s drought <em>&#8220;have drastically worsened the outlook for Moldova with a significant economic contraction expected in 2020, and a slow recovery in 2021,&#8221;<\/em><\/span><\/span> as it mentioned in the <a href=\"http:\/\/pubdocs.worldbank.org\/en\/152271608708764457\/Moldova-Economic-Update-Dec-22.pdf\">Moldova Economic Update for Winter 2020<\/a> of the financial institution.<\/p>\n<p>What is more, the uncertainty related to the duration of the pandemic could have a further negative impact on firms, workers and households.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Poverty is expected to increase as households face the impact of the crisis, including loss of employment and earnings, a reduction in remittances receipts, and the return of vulnerable migrants from abroad who might struggle to find employment.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>First, the economic activity of the country dropped in the first three quarters of 2020, driven primarily by a reduction in households\u2019 consumption and stocks. The lockdown measures have hindered trade and industrial production, while a severe drought has impacted agriculture, as the Word Bank overview stated. Therefore, <strong><span style=\"color: #993300;\">a<\/span><span style=\"color: #993300;\">n economic contraction is expected in 2020 of a magnitude not seen since the great global recession in 2009.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The World Bank <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/pubdocs.worldbank.org\/en\/152271608708764457\/Moldova-Economic-Update-Dec-22.pdf\">Economic Update for Winter 2020<\/a><\/strong> and the <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/pubdocs.worldbank.org\/en\/185631608708604109\/Moldova-Economic-Update-Special-Focus-Dec-22.pdf\">Assessment of the impact of COVID-19 and the drought on jobs, firms, and households<\/a> <\/strong>presented the following figures:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The GDP is estimated to decline by <span style=\"color: #993300;\">7.2%<\/span> in 2020;<\/li>\n<li>Employment, earnings losses and remittances will continue to decline due to the lockdown in Moldova and its main economic partner, that hitting households hard;<\/li>\n<li>Mainly, employment is expected to drop by almost <span style=\"color: #993300;\">8%<\/span> in 2020, with an estimated 70 000 jobs lost, of which the majority in trade and hospitality, followed by agriculture and industry;<\/li>\n<li>Even with an adjustment of intermediate costs to make up for reduced sales, still almost<span style=\"color: #993300;\"> half of firms <span style=\"color: #000000;\">(<\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">m<\/span>ostly micro) may need to cut costs to remain profitable &#8211; large firms are expected to experience the largest decline in profits, micro firms will be forced to adjust their labor costs;<\/li>\n<li>Poverty is expected to increase to about <span style=\"color: #993300;\">13%<\/span><span style=\"color: #993300;\">, as <\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">17%<\/span> of households reported a reduction of income from work, 8.3% &#8211; a reduction of remittances from abroad, and 3.6% &#8211; the withholding of salaries, pensions, and social benefits, according to the 2020 Household Budget Survey;<\/li>\n<li>Most of the investment activity has been postponed or cancelled due to uncertainty;<\/li>\n<li>Depressed global demand, combined with the recent drought, are expected to contain exports;<\/li>\n<li>Imports are also expected to shrink due to anaemic consumption throughout the year;<\/li>\n<li>The combination of the pandemic and the severe drought is expected to affect most sectors of the economy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div id=\"attachment_449073\" style=\"width: 1081px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-449073\" class=\"size-full wp-image-449073\" src=\"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/short-term.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1071\" height=\"745\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/short-term.jpg 1071w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/short-term-300x209.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/short-term-768x534.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/short-term-400x278.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1071px) 100vw, 1071px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-449073\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: worldbank.org<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"attachment_449075\" style=\"width: 861px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-449075\" class=\"wp-image-449075 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/job-loss.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"851\" height=\"764\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/job-loss.jpg 851w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/job-loss-300x269.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/job-loss-768x689.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/job-loss-400x359.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 851px) 100vw, 851px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-449075\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: worldbank.org<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The increasing number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths in 2020 have created health and social emergencies and put a great strain on the economy, as it is mentioned in the World Bank assessment.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;In addition, the most severe drought since 2000 has hit the country, with agricultural production falling by more than 30% in the third quarter compared to the same period in 2019.&#8221;<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>According to the World Bank&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/pubdocs.worldbank.org\/en\/152271608708764457\/Moldova-Economic-Update-Dec-22.pdf\">data<\/a>, the imports have contracted by <span style=\"color: #993300;\">16.4%<\/span>, <em>&#8220;which has more than compensated the decline in export (-7.4%) and in remittances (-4.6%).&#8221;<\/em> The contraction happened due to lower energy prices and weak domestic demand in the first half of 2020. <em>&#8220;As a result, the current account deficit (CAD) has narrowed to 4.4% of GDP, which is almost 2.5 times smaller than during the same period in 2019.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_449076\" style=\"width: 1108px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-449076\" class=\"wp-image-449076 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/remittances.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1098\" height=\"705\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/remittances.jpg 1098w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/remittances-300x193.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/remittances-768x493.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/remittances-400x257.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1098px) 100vw, 1098px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-449076\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: worldbank.org<\/p><\/div>\n<p>On the other hand, the existing 2020 CAD was mainly financed by public debt instruments. <em>&#8220;By September, external debt reached around 65% of GDP, 3% higher than in 2019,&#8221;<\/em> the report said.<\/p>\n<p>Another aspect pointed out in the report is related to the fiscal situation: fiscal revenues decrease by <span style=\"color: #993300;\">1.7%<\/span>, due to declining corporate income tax and VAT on imports. At the same time, public spending increased as the result of COVID-19 mitigation measured introduced by authorities. Public investment contracted by about <span style=\"color: #993300;\">4%<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;As a result, the fiscal deficit will reach 4.5% of GDP, pushing the public and publicly guaranteed debt up by 4% to 31.4% of GDP,&#8221;<\/em> is concluded in the report. That is higher than historical averages, but less than half of what was planned in the state budget law.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Going forward, the fiscal stance is expected to be challenging due to a decline in revenues as businesses struggle and households suffer from weak job creation and wage growth. As a result, public debt is expected to increase rapidly, but still remaining low by international standards.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<div id=\"attachment_449074\" style=\"width: 1042px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-449074\" class=\"wp-image-449074 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/fiscal.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1032\" height=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/fiscal.jpg 1032w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/fiscal-300x223.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/fiscal-768x572.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/12\/fiscal-400x298.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1032px) 100vw, 1032px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-449074\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: worldbank.org<\/p><\/div>\n<p>**<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><strong>Even though the forecasts for 2021 seem optimistic, the pandemic is still expected to keep the economy below its potential. <\/strong><\/span>Economic growth is expected to reach <span style=\"color: #000080;\">3.8%<\/span> in 2021, thanks to the development of vaccines. <em>&#8220;Consumer and investment confidence are expected to rebound thanks to the resumption of remittances, increase in social transfers, and accommodative monetary stance,&#8221;<\/em> the World Bank reports stated. Most sectors, including agriculture, are also expected to recover, reaching the 2019 levels in 2022. The current account deficit will gradually widen as the economy accelerates, as well as the<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>average<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>inflation that <em>&#8220;is expected to be below the target of 5% in 2020-2021, but to pick up as the recovery strengthens.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The economic recovery though, relies on <span style=\"color: #993300;\">favourable conditions linked to vaccine rollout, but also on the ability of the authorities to advance long-term structural reforms:<\/span> ensuring fiscal efficiency and access to external financing, continue justice and governance reform agenda, along with reforms in the non-banking financial sector, market and price regulations, anti-corruption and rule of law, as well bolstering productivity in private sectors.<\/p>\n<p>Photo: Kevin Schneider |Pixabay<\/p>\n<div class='heateorSssClear'><\/div><div  class='heateor_sss_sharing_container heateor_sss_horizontal_sharing' 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