{"id":448562,"date":"2020-07-19T19:14:39","date_gmt":"2020-07-19T19:14:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/?p=448562"},"modified":"2020-07-19T19:25:02","modified_gmt":"2020-07-19T19:25:02","slug":"experts-the-economic-impact-of-the-pandemic-crisis-the-latest-figures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/experts-the-economic-impact-of-the-pandemic-crisis-the-latest-figures\/","title":{"rendered":"Experts: The economic impact of the pandemic crisis – the latest figures"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 4<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

The coronavirus pandemic hit the Moldovan economy very hard. At the end of April, the United Nations Moldova<\/strong> forecasted<\/a> that the blow to economic activity could reach 20% of the country’s GDP<\/span> during the second quarter of 2020, especially when it comes to the most vulnerable areas. After\u00a06 months since the beginning of the pandemic, economic experts reported the last figures.<\/p>\n

The public budget revenues are 3 billion lei lower than initially anticipated.\u00a0<\/span><\/h4>\n

During March-May 2020, the budget revenues from taxes and fees were 1.8 billion lei<\/strong> lower (-17.8%<\/span>) than in the same period of 2019. Taking into consideration that, initially,\u00a0an increase of revenues by 11.4%was anticipated, the total difference reached 3 billion lei as compared to the initial planned budget, is mentioned in a\u00a0note<\/a>\u00a0of the economic expert, Veaceslav Ionita<\/strong>. According to him, it is the biggest\u00a0budget loss in the history of the Republic of Moldova<\/span>.<\/p>\n

The economist\u00a0mentioned that, even though the public budget revenues increased beyond the expectations in the first 2 months of 2020, this surplus could not save the situation, as there was a decrease of revenues by 30.7%<\/span> in April only. “Budget expenditures are 18 billion lei higher than possible revenues this year and, without external financial support, it is impossible to honour all budgetary obligations assumed by the Government,”<\/em> said the expert.<\/p>\n

Moldova’s foreign trade has fallen by 26.2% when compared to the same period last year.\u00a0<\/span><\/h4>\n

In the first 3 months of economic crisis (March-May), the volume of foreign trade of Moldova decreased by $ 582 million<\/strong> (-26.3%<\/span>), as compared to the same period of 2019, as Ionita reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Imports fell by $ 414 million (-27.1%), the\u00a0<\/span><\/span>decrease being determined by the inactivity of commercial units during the quarantine, reduction of the population’s consumption and petroleum products fall in prices and consumption, as the expert also stated. Exports decreased by $ 168 million (-24.5%<\/span>). Exports to EU countries suffered the biggest decline, as they dropped by $ 127 million (-29.2%<\/span>) during this period.<\/p>\n

The wine sector, as the most export-dependent industry (over 85% of wine production in Moldova is directed to export), would be hit the most. In 2020, exports of wine products could fall again below $ 100 million<\/span> (the level of 1998), according to the forecasts of IDIS Viitorul<\/strong> experts.<\/p>\n

See also:\u00a0Coronavirus drains the wine industry<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, the crisis affects not only winemakers, but also farmers, glass factories, carriers and other related industries. The wine industry in the Republic of Moldova is the only branch where the entire production cycle is local. Giving the current situation, experts advised domestic sales opportunities to be identified.<\/p>\n

According to the\u00a0information<\/a> presented by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)<\/strong>, both exports and imports started to recover in May, when a series of pandemic restrictions were lifted.<\/p>\n

Passenger transportation services have decreased 4.5 times as compared to 2019.<\/span><\/h4>\n

In January – May 2020, 46.7%<\/span> less passengers used public transportation in Moldova, when compared to 2019, as the NBS data<\/a> stated. The number of passengers decreased 4.5 times compared to the period of March-May 2019, according to an analytical note<\/a> of Veaceslav Ionita<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The expert claimed that, during this period, air transport suffered the most. It was reduced by 5.7 times, as compared to the same period last year. At the same time, the land\u00a0transport has decreased 4 times. As the land transport is mostly operated by local companies, the domestic carriers were affected the most by the crisis.<\/p>\n

The railway, road, river and air freight transport companies transported 5.8 million tons<\/strong> of goods in the pandemic period, that being 13.9%<\/span> less than in 2019.<\/p>\n

The real estate market has decreased by 36% in the second quarter of 2020.<\/span><\/h4>\n

In April – June 2020, 36%<\/span> less transactions with (buying and selling) apartments were performed than the same period in 2019, according<\/a> to Veaceslav Ionita<\/strong>. The reduction in the number of transactions also influenced mortgage loans. Thus, in the second quarter of 2020, there were 2.3 times less apartments purchased through mortgages as compared to 2019. However, both the number of transactions and mortgage purchases have reached the pre-boom level (2018-2019).<\/p>\n

The nominal increase in salaries (recalculated in euro) and the decrease in the price of apartments led to the fact that a family’s effort to purchase an apartment was eased by 13% this year<\/span>. Thus, for the purchase of an apartment of 70 square meters in Chisinau are required 7.6 annual salaries, as compared to 8.7 annual salaries in 2019, stated the economic expert.<\/p>\n

The foreign exchange market has contracted by 42% when compared to 2019.<\/span><\/h4>\n

During the pandemic period, the foreign exchange market in the Republic of Moldova contracted by over 42%, that being m<\/span><\/span>uch m<\/span>ore than it was recorded in the crisis of 2015, when the foreign exchange market fell by 31%. “In fact, the foreign exchange market\u00a0contracting was determined by the slowdown in economic life, caused by the COVID-19 crisis,”<\/em> explained<\/a> Ionita.<\/p>\n

The total turnover of the foreign exchange market decreased by $ 543 million<\/strong> in 2020 – the lowest value in the last eight years<\/span>.<\/p>\n

Foreign currency sales to individuals fell by $ 93 million (-42%<\/span>). This decline could be explained by the low demand of foreign currency purchases and reducing the population’s tendency for foreign exchange savings. Foreign currency sales to legal entities decreased by $ 159 million (-38%<\/span>), that being determined by the sharp decrease of imports in the Republic of Moldova.<\/p>\n

See also:\u00a0Record remittances sent to Moldova during the COVID-19 pandemic \u2013 expert\u2019s explanation<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

The number of people who had a job, but did not work at all increased 2 times.<\/span><\/h4>\n

The NBS reported<\/a> that 33.2 thousand people<\/strong> (4.1% of the total employed population) and their situation at work was affected by the coronavirus pandemic. The number of people who had a job, but did not work at all increased 2 times (4.9%<\/span>) in the first quarter of 2020 as compared to the same period of 2019. The number of people on unpaid leave increased 3.5 times, in annual leave – 2.9 times and those on technical unemployment – 1.6 times. More than a half of these people weren’t paid by companies while staying at home.<\/p>\n

At the same time, 16.6 thousand people<\/strong> worked from home during the pandemic crisis, this number increasing 2.5 times as compared to the first quarter of 2019.\u00a0 51.1 thousand people<\/strong> (6.3% of total employment) were\u00a0employed on a part-time basis in the first quarter of 2020.<\/p>\n

A recent survey<\/a> conducted by the\u00a0iData company<\/strong> during June-July, on 1 511 respondents showed that 22%<\/span> of respondents lost their incomes during the COVID-19 crisis, while 4% had to sell their belongings to handle the crisis. About 48.4% of respondents used their savings, 35.2% saved on other items to handle necessity expenses, 30% borrowed money, and 3.9% sold personal goods.<\/p>\n

55% of respondents said most expenses went to food, followed by healthcare and home maintenance.<\/span><\/p>\n

The lockdown delivered a serious blow especially to such sectors as\u00a0retail trade, restaurants, catering, tourism, recreation and cultural activities. The real economic impact on these sectors is yet to be assessed and reflected in future economic reports.<\/p>\n

Photo:\u00a0Michelle Ziling Ou|\u00a0Unsplash<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reading Time: <\/span> 4<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>The coronavirus pandemic hit the Moldovan economy very hard. At the end of April, the United Nations Moldova forecasted that the blow to economic activity could reach 20% of the country’s GDP during the second quarter of 2020, especially when it comes to the most vulnerable areas. After\u00a06 months since the beginning of the pandemic, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":448563,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,56],"tags":[249,561,642,381,800,77,35,801,625,27,608,799],"class_list":["post-448562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-reportaje","tag-249","tag-561","tag-covid-19","tag-crisis","tag-economic","tag-economy","tag-important","tag-indicators","tag-industry","tag-moldova","tag-pandemic","tag-shock"],"content_social_share":"Reading Time: <\/span> 4<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

The coronavirus pandemic hit the Moldovan economy very hard. At the end of April, the United Nations Moldova<\/strong> forecasted<\/a> that the blow to economic activity could reach 20% of the country’s GDP<\/span> during the second quarter of 2020, especially when it comes to the most vulnerable areas. After\u00a06 months since the beginning of the pandemic, economic experts reported the last figures.<\/p>\n

The public budget revenues are 3 billion lei lower than initially anticipated.\u00a0<\/span><\/h4>\n

During March-May 2020, the budget revenues from taxes and fees were 1.8 billion lei<\/strong> lower (-17.8%<\/span>) than in the same period of 2019. Taking into consideration that, initially,\u00a0an increase of revenues by 11.4%was anticipated, the total difference reached 3 billion lei as compared to the initial planned budget, is mentioned in a\u00a0note<\/a>\u00a0of the economic expert, Veaceslav Ionita<\/strong>. According to him, it is the biggest\u00a0budget loss in the history of the Republic of Moldova<\/span>.<\/p>\n

The economist\u00a0mentioned that, even though the public budget revenues increased beyond the expectations in the first 2 months of 2020, this surplus could not save the situation, as there was a decrease of revenues by 30.7%<\/span> in April only. “Budget expenditures are 18 billion lei higher than possible revenues this year and, without external financial support, it is impossible to honour all budgetary obligations assumed by the Government,”<\/em> said the expert.<\/p>\n

Moldova’s foreign trade has fallen by 26.2% when compared to the same period last year.\u00a0<\/span><\/h4>\n

In the first 3 months of economic crisis (March-May), the volume of foreign trade of Moldova decreased by $ 582 million<\/strong> (-26.3%<\/span>), as compared to the same period of 2019, as Ionita reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Imports fell by $ 414 million (-27.1%), the\u00a0<\/span><\/span>decrease being determined by the inactivity of commercial units during the quarantine, reduction of the population’s consumption and petroleum products fall in prices and consumption, as the expert also stated. Exports decreased by $ 168 million (-24.5%<\/span>). Exports to EU countries suffered the biggest decline, as they dropped by $ 127 million (-29.2%<\/span>) during this period.<\/p>\n

The wine sector, as the most export-dependent industry (over 85% of wine production in Moldova is directed to export), would be hit the most. In 2020, exports of wine products could fall again below $ 100 million<\/span> (the level of 1998), according to the forecasts of IDIS Viitorul<\/strong> experts.<\/p>\n

See also:\u00a0Coronavirus drains the wine industry<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, the crisis affects not only winemakers, but also farmers, glass factories, carriers and other related industries. The wine industry in the Republic of Moldova is the only branch where the entire production cycle is local. Giving the current situation, experts advised domestic sales opportunities to be identified.<\/p>\n

According to the\u00a0information<\/a> presented by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)<\/strong>, both exports and imports started to recover in May, when a series of pandemic restrictions were lifted.<\/p>\n

Passenger transportation services have decreased 4.5 times as compared to 2019.<\/span><\/h4>\n

In January – May 2020, 46.7%<\/span> less passengers used public transportation in Moldova, when compared to 2019, as the NBS data<\/a> stated. The number of passengers decreased 4.5 times compared to the period of March-May 2019, according to an analytical note<\/a> of Veaceslav Ionita<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The expert claimed that, during this period, air transport suffered the most. It was reduced by 5.7 times, as compared to the same period last year. At the same time, the land\u00a0transport has decreased 4 times. As the land transport is mostly operated by local companies, the domestic carriers were affected the most by the crisis.<\/p>\n

The railway, road, river and air freight transport companies transported 5.8 million tons<\/strong> of goods in the pandemic period, that being 13.9%<\/span> less than in 2019.<\/p>\n

The real estate market has decreased by 36% in the second quarter of 2020.<\/span><\/h4>\n

In April – June 2020, 36%<\/span> less transactions with (buying and selling) apartments were performed than the same period in 2019, according<\/a> to Veaceslav Ionita<\/strong>. The reduction in the number of transactions also influenced mortgage loans. Thus, in the second quarter of 2020, there were 2.3 times less apartments purchased through mortgages as compared to 2019. However, both the number of transactions and mortgage purchases have reached the pre-boom level (2018-2019).<\/p>\n

The nominal increase in salaries (recalculated in euro) and the decrease in the price of apartments led to the fact that a family’s effort to purchase an apartment was eased by 13% this year<\/span>. Thus, for the purchase of an apartment of 70 square meters in Chisinau are required 7.6 annual salaries, as compared to 8.7 annual salaries in 2019, stated the economic expert.<\/p>\n

The foreign exchange market has contracted by 42% when compared to 2019.<\/span><\/h4>\n

During the pandemic period, the foreign exchange market in the Republic of Moldova contracted by over 42%, that being m<\/span><\/span>uch m<\/span>ore than it was recorded in the crisis of 2015, when the foreign exchange market fell by 31%. “In fact, the foreign exchange market\u00a0contracting was determined by the slowdown in economic life, caused by the COVID-19 crisis,”<\/em> explained<\/a> Ionita.<\/p>\n

The total turnover of the foreign exchange market decreased by $ 543 million<\/strong> in 2020 – the lowest value in the last eight years<\/span>.<\/p>\n

Foreign currency sales to individuals fell by $ 93 million (-42%<\/span>). This decline could be explained by the low demand of foreign currency purchases and reducing the population’s tendency for foreign exchange savings. Foreign currency sales to legal entities decreased by $ 159 million (-38%<\/span>), that being determined by the sharp decrease of imports in the Republic of Moldova.<\/p>\n

See also:\u00a0Record remittances sent to Moldova during the COVID-19 pandemic \u2013 expert\u2019s explanation<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

The number of people who had a job, but did not work at all increased 2 times.<\/span><\/h4>\n

The NBS reported<\/a> that 33.2 thousand people<\/strong> (4.1% of the total employed population) and their situation at work was affected by the coronavirus pandemic. The number of people who had a job, but did not work at all increased 2 times (4.9%<\/span>) in the first quarter of 2020 as compared to the same period of 2019. The number of people on unpaid leave increased 3.5 times, in annual leave – 2.9 times and those on technical unemployment – 1.6 times. More than a half of these people weren’t paid by companies while staying at home.<\/p>\n

At the same time, 16.6 thousand people<\/strong> worked from home during the pandemic crisis, this number increasing 2.5 times as compared to the first quarter of 2019.\u00a0 51.1 thousand people<\/strong> (6.3% of total employment) were\u00a0employed on a part-time basis in the first quarter of 2020.<\/p>\n

A recent survey<\/a> conducted by the\u00a0iData company<\/strong> during June-July, on 1 511 respondents showed that 22%<\/span> of respondents lost their incomes during the COVID-19 crisis, while 4% had to sell their belongings to handle the crisis. About 48.4% of respondents used their savings, 35.2% saved on other items to handle necessity expenses, 30% borrowed money, and 3.9% sold personal goods.<\/p>\n

55% of respondents said most expenses went to food, followed by healthcare and home maintenance.<\/span><\/p>\n

The lockdown delivered a serious blow especially to such sectors as\u00a0retail trade, restaurants, catering, tourism, recreation and cultural activities. The real economic impact on these sectors is yet to be assessed and reflected in future economic reports.<\/p>\n

Photo:\u00a0Michelle Ziling Ou|\u00a0Unsplash<\/p>\n

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