{"id":448141,"date":"2020-04-06T19:27:56","date_gmt":"2020-04-06T19:27:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/?p=448141"},"modified":"2020-04-06T19:34:20","modified_gmt":"2020-04-06T19:34:20","slug":"whats-next-optimistic-vs-pessimistic-projections-for-the-pandemic-evolution-in-moldova","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/whats-next-optimistic-vs-pessimistic-projections-for-the-pandemic-evolution-in-moldova\/","title":{"rendered":"What’s next? Optimistic vs pessimistic projections for the pandemic evolution in Moldova"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 2<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

By the end of May, around 31 000 thousand new cases of infection with COVID-19 could be registered in the Republic of Moldova, according to a pessimistic scenario developed by the National Agency for Public Health (NAPH).<\/p>\n

The average incubation period (the period between infection and the moment symptoms may appear) recorded in the case of patients from Moldova was 5.8 days<\/strong>, while the R0 (basic reproduction number) was established as being 2.6 persons<\/strong>, meaning that each newly-infected\u00a0person spreads the disease to about 2.6 other people on average. If the same trend is maintained, the number of patients infected with COVID-19 will reach 31 000<\/strong> cases by the end of May<\/span>.<\/p>\n

The director of the NAPH, Nicolae Furtuna, specified that the pessimistic scenario could become reality if the population does not follow to the instructions given by the authorities. “Picnics, public gatherings, meetings attended by 6-8 people on any occasion are not desirable. They are even contraindicated. Let’s be patient. If we stay at home, we will follow the optimistic scenario, otherwise the medical system and the economy will flounder, ”\u00a0<\/em>mentioned<\/a> the official.<\/p>\n

However, if the citizens demonstrate responsibility and comply with the measures of isolation, the R0 of COVID-19 could decrease to 1.5 persons<\/strong>. In this case, the positive scenario would manifest where morbidity could decrease 10 times.<\/p>\n

At the moment, there are 965 confirmed cases in the Republic of Moldova, out of which 80 patients are serious or critical. There are 37 cases of recovered persons and 19 deaths. Most of cases are recorded in the capital city of the country – 316 cases, according to the data<\/a> provided by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection.<\/p>\n

The categories of patients who are at higher risk for severe illness are those aged between 50 and 59 years – 232 persons, and patients aged over 60 – 215 persons, as well as the medical personnel who takes care of COVID-19 patients.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Source: virusncov.com<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reading Time: <\/span> 2<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>By the end of May, around 31 000 thousand new cases of infection with COVID-19 could be registered in the Republic of Moldova, according to a pessimistic scenario developed by the National Agency for Public Health (NAPH). The average incubation period (the period between infection and the moment symptoms may appear) recorded in the case […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":448145,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[609,35,27,608,475,670],"class_list":["post-448141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-society","tag-coronavirus","tag-important","tag-moldova","tag-pandemic","tag-projections","tag-scenario"],"content_social_share":"Reading Time: <\/span> 2<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

By the end of May, around 31 000 thousand new cases of infection with COVID-19 could be registered in the Republic of Moldova, according to a pessimistic scenario developed by the National Agency for Public Health (NAPH).<\/p>\n

The average incubation period (the period between infection and the moment symptoms may appear) recorded in the case of patients from Moldova was 5.8 days<\/strong>, while the R0 (basic reproduction number) was established as being 2.6 persons<\/strong>, meaning that each newly-infected\u00a0person spreads the disease to about 2.6 other people on average. If the same trend is maintained, the number of patients infected with COVID-19 will reach 31 000<\/strong> cases by the end of May<\/span>.<\/p>\n

The director of the NAPH, Nicolae Furtuna, specified that the pessimistic scenario could become reality if the population does not follow to the instructions given by the authorities. “Picnics, public gatherings, meetings attended by 6-8 people on any occasion are not desirable. They are even contraindicated. Let’s be patient. If we stay at home, we will follow the optimistic scenario, otherwise the medical system and the economy will flounder, ”\u00a0<\/em>mentioned<\/a> the official.<\/p>\n

However, if the citizens demonstrate responsibility and comply with the measures of isolation, the R0 of COVID-19 could decrease to 1.5 persons<\/strong>. In this case, the positive scenario would manifest where morbidity could decrease 10 times.<\/p>\n

At the moment, there are 965 confirmed cases in the Republic of Moldova, out of which 80 patients are serious or critical. There are 37 cases of recovered persons and 19 deaths. Most of cases are recorded in the capital city of the country – 316 cases, according to the data<\/a> provided by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection.<\/p>\n

The categories of patients who are at higher risk for severe illness are those aged between 50 and 59 years – 232 persons, and patients aged over 60 – 215 persons, as well as the medical personnel who takes care of COVID-19 patients.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Source: virusncov.com<\/p><\/div>\n

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