{"id":447853,"date":"2020-01-02T15:27:49","date_gmt":"2020-01-02T15:27:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/?p=447853"},"modified":"2020-01-05T13:48:56","modified_gmt":"2020-01-05T13:48:56","slug":"expert-grup-economic-forecasts-for-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/expert-grup-economic-forecasts-for-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Expert-Grup: economic forecasts for Moldova in 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 2<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

The experts from the Expert-Grup Independent Analytical Centre have given the forecasts for the Moldovan economy in the year 2020. According to them, the bank fraud<\/strong> will still affect the economy of the Republic of Moldova in 2020, along with this year’s presidential elections<\/strong> and the adopted budgetary policy<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

In 2020, the biggest challenge for the economy of the Republic of Moldova will represent the expansionary budgetary policy, which includes<\/span><\/span>\u00a0a budget deficit of over 3% of GDP and has unclear funding sources.<\/p>\n

The analysts emphasised that the risk is related to the increased amount of the possible loans taken by the Government from the commercial banks. “Before elections, governments usually focus on increased budgetary spending with unclear financial coverage and this year is no exception. In the context of worsening relations with development partners, including with the International Monetary Fund, the Government could more intensely resort to domestic loans taken from commercial banks. This will hit the economy again because the banks will prefer to credit the Government rather than the real sector, affecting the investment activity and the economic growth,\u201d<\/em> stated<\/a>\u00a0the Executive Director of the Expert-Grup Centre, Adrian Lupu\u015for, for Ziarul de Gard\u0103.<\/p>\n

Another important challenge is the\u00a0electoral context, namely the presidential elections<\/span> that create a high level of uncertainty and instability, the Expert-Grup representatives said.\u00a0“That is the main fear of an investor, especially in such countries as Moldova. This means that during the election period the level of uncertainty is high and it is risky for someone to invest. This affects the activity of the enterprises, the creation of jobs and the general economic growth. […] These factors create risks for the macro-financial stabilisation,\u201d\u00a0<\/em>Lupu\u0219or said.<\/p>\n

The Moldovan bank fraud scandal<\/span>, which occurred in 2014, will still affect the economic development of the country in 2020.\u00a0“In 2018, the Republic of Moldova experienced a shameful evolution in investigations related to the bank fraud. Now that we have a new leadership in the General Prosecutor’s Office, we have certain expectations again,”<\/em> the expert claimed.<\/p>\n

Still, experts of the centre said that\u00a0 there are no premises for a possible crisis in the foreign exchange market of the Republic of Moldova, even though\u00a0there will be certain trends with pressures on the national currency<\/span> in the new year. “They are about reducing exports, remittances, foreign assistance and foreign direct investment. All of it will put pressure on the balance of payments, because the main sources that ensure the inflow of foreign currency in the country will be affected. Still, the National Bank has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to avoid excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate and to face the economic challenges mentioned above,\u201d<\/em> explained Lupu\u0219or.<\/p>\n

The Expert-Grup Independent Analytical Centre noted,\u00a0in a press release<\/a>, that among the most important challenges for 2020 are the planned budget deficit for 2020, a low capacity to implement public investments with external financing, supplying the country with natural gas, ensuring the legal and decision independence of the National Bank, investigating fraud in the banking sector, but also the worrying developments in the labour market.<\/span><\/p>\n

Photo: expert-grup.org<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reading Time: <\/span> 2<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>The experts from the Expert-Grup Independent Analytical Centre have given the forecasts for the Moldovan economy in the year 2020. According to them, the bank fraud will still affect the economy of the Republic of Moldova in 2020, along with this year’s presidential elections and the adopted budgetary policy. In 2020, the biggest challenge for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":447854,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,3,4],"tags":[526,297,525,35,27],"class_list":["post-447853","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-politics","category-society","tag-economics","tag-expert","tag-forecasts","tag-important","tag-moldova"],"content_social_share":"Reading Time: <\/span> 2<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

The experts from the Expert-Grup Independent Analytical Centre have given the forecasts for the Moldovan economy in the year 2020. According to them, the bank fraud<\/strong> will still affect the economy of the Republic of Moldova in 2020, along with this year’s presidential elections<\/strong> and the adopted budgetary policy<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

In 2020, the biggest challenge for the economy of the Republic of Moldova will represent the expansionary budgetary policy, which includes<\/span><\/span>\u00a0a budget deficit of over 3% of GDP and has unclear funding sources.<\/p>\n

The analysts emphasised that the risk is related to the increased amount of the possible loans taken by the Government from the commercial banks. “Before elections, governments usually focus on increased budgetary spending with unclear financial coverage and this year is no exception. In the context of worsening relations with development partners, including with the International Monetary Fund, the Government could more intensely resort to domestic loans taken from commercial banks. This will hit the economy again because the banks will prefer to credit the Government rather than the real sector, affecting the investment activity and the economic growth,\u201d<\/em> stated<\/a>\u00a0the Executive Director of the Expert-Grup Centre, Adrian Lupu\u015for, for Ziarul de Gard\u0103.<\/p>\n

Another important challenge is the\u00a0electoral context, namely the presidential elections<\/span> that create a high level of uncertainty and instability, the Expert-Grup representatives said.\u00a0“That is the main fear of an investor, especially in such countries as Moldova. This means that during the election period the level of uncertainty is high and it is risky for someone to invest. This affects the activity of the enterprises, the creation of jobs and the general economic growth. […] These factors create risks for the macro-financial stabilisation,\u201d\u00a0<\/em>Lupu\u0219or said.<\/p>\n

The Moldovan bank fraud scandal<\/span>, which occurred in 2014, will still affect the economic development of the country in 2020.\u00a0“In 2018, the Republic of Moldova experienced a shameful evolution in investigations related to the bank fraud. Now that we have a new leadership in the General Prosecutor’s Office, we have certain expectations again,”<\/em> the expert claimed.<\/p>\n

Still, experts of the centre said that\u00a0 there are no premises for a possible crisis in the foreign exchange market of the Republic of Moldova, even though\u00a0there will be certain trends with pressures on the national currency<\/span> in the new year. “They are about reducing exports, remittances, foreign assistance and foreign direct investment. All of it will put pressure on the balance of payments, because the main sources that ensure the inflow of foreign currency in the country will be affected. Still, the National Bank has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to avoid excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate and to face the economic challenges mentioned above,\u201d<\/em> explained Lupu\u0219or.<\/p>\n

The Expert-Grup Independent Analytical Centre noted,\u00a0in a press release<\/a>, that among the most important challenges for 2020 are the planned budget deficit for 2020, a low capacity to implement public investments with external financing, supplying the country with natural gas, ensuring the legal and decision independence of the National Bank, investigating fraud in the banking sector, but also the worrying developments in the labour market.<\/span><\/p>\n

Photo: expert-grup.org<\/p>\n

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