{"id":446111,"date":"2018-11-27T11:14:02","date_gmt":"2018-11-27T11:14:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/?p=446111"},"modified":"2019-01-10T13:42:54","modified_gmt":"2019-01-10T13:42:54","slug":"conflict-sea-azov-represents-reason-worry-moldova-crisis-overview-experts-opinion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/conflict-sea-azov-represents-reason-worry-moldova-crisis-overview-experts-opinion\/","title":{"rendered":"“The conflict in the Sea of Azov represents a reason to worry for Moldova” The crisis overview and the experts\u2019 opinion"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 6<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

A dangerous new crisis between Russia and Ukraine began after Russia seized 3 Ukrainian naval ships on Sunday morning, preventing them to enter the Kerch Strait \u2013 a narrow strip of water that links the Black and Azov seas and holds strategic importance for both countries.<\/p>\n

According to the Ukrainian navy cited in the international media<\/a>, a Russian vessel bumped into a Ukrainian tugboat Yany Kapu<\/em>. Along with Berdiansk and Nikopol<\/em> gunboats, it was transiting from Odessa to the port of Mariupol in the Sea of Azov. The Russian vessel opened fire and wounded several sailors. The tugboat Yany Kapu<\/em> and the gunboat Berdiansk<\/em> were disabled by the Russian forces and the undamaged Nikopol <\/em>was taken under control. Russia sent two combat helicopters to the location of the incident, as reported by the Ukrainian Navy. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry declares in a statement<\/a> that Russia acted \u201caggressively\u201d and \u201cillegally used force against the ships of the Ukrainian Navy.\u201d<\/p>\n

The office of the Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko qualified<\/a> the Russian action against the Ukrainian navy ships as “an act of aggression aimed at deliberately escalating the situation in the waters of the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait.” It also called for international condemnation of Moscow and the imposition of new sanctions. “We consider such actions categorically unacceptable and this aggression has already led to consequences,” said Petro Poroshenko.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, the Russian FSB security service states<\/a> that the border patrol boats captured the Ukrainian naval vessels by using weapons. The FSB declared it was forced to take action as the Ukrainian boats illegally entered its territorial waters and ignored warnings to stop, according to the news agency TASS. “Weapons were used with the aim of forcibly stopping the Ukrainian warships,” the FSB said. The Russian media speculates that the incident in the Kerch Strait was a conspiracy between the U.S. and Ukrainian authorities for endangering the upcoming meeting between the U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 Summit.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Source: Twitter<\/p><\/div>\n

As a response to the crisis, Russia temporarily blocked<\/a> the passage to the Kerch Strait by placing a tanker in the waters under a bridge controlled by Russians. The access way was reopened for the civilian ships only, according to TASS.<\/p>\n

The conflict seems to escalate even more as on Monday the Ukrainian lawmakers voted<\/a>, at the initiative of the country\u2019s president Petro Poroshenko, to declare martial law in 10 regions of Ukraine for a term of 30 days, starting in the morning of November 28th<\/sup>. The martial law also specifies that the election of President of Ukraine was set to March 31st<\/sup>, 2019.<\/p>\n

International community<\/h3>\n

European Union and NATO support the Ukraine sovereignty and its territorial integrity and calls on Russia “to ensure unhindered access to Ukrainian ports in the Azov Sea,” as Oana Lungescu, the spokesperson of NATO, declares in a statement<\/a> to CNN. At the same time, Rosemary DiCarlo, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs urged Ukraine and Russia \u201cto refrain from any ratcheting up of actions or rhetoric,\u201d as UN News reports<\/a>. \u201c[We] remind both [Russia and Ukraine] of the need to contain this incident so as to prevent a serious escalation that may have unforeseen consequences,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Source: UN News<\/p><\/div>\n

Several European states, including Romania and Republic of Moldova expressed their concern regarding the development of the Azov Sea and Kerch Strait conflict. \u201cAggression & violation of international law undermine the security of the whole region,\u201d declares the service of the Romanian Ministry of External Affairs. The Moldovan Ministry of External Affairs and European Integration expressed its \u201cprofound concern\u201d regarding the occurring events as well. \u201cWe firmly blame any acts of aggression and provocation that undermine the regional security,” the ministry said<\/a>. Both Romanian and Moldovan Ministries support \u201cthe territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine and its rights to use its territorial waters.\u201d<\/p>\n

Experts\u2019 opinion<\/h3>\n

Rosian Vasiloi<\/strong>, the IDIS “Viitorul” expert in security policies, qualifies the Ukrainian actions of transferring its vessels through the Kerch Strait as \u201cnot illegal,\u201d taking into consideration the previous agreements between Russia and Ukraine. Whereas the Russian actions \u201care a flagrant violation of the established agreements, Kremlin trying to set new game rules in the Black and Azov seas and maintaining the position that those are territorial waters under the Russian control,\u201d says Vasiloi.<\/p>\n

He considers that the main objectives of the Russian actions is to discourage assistance and support from the European institutions to Ukraine in the defence and security sector, to hinder the intention of joining NATO, as well as convincing the Ukrainian citizens about the weakness of the Navy Forces and promoting the propagandist messages in the context of future Ukrainian elections.<\/p>\n

Rosian Vasiloi expresses his expectations concerning a tough reaction from the international community, as tolerating such actions from the Russian side \u201cis way too much.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI expect that the Ukrainian authorities and the EU institutions would concentrate their forces for promoting policies and measures that would sanction a possible Russia\u2019s aggression against its neighbouring state.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The Republic of Moldova should align to these sanctions, considers Vasiloi. \u201cThe eventual war declaration from the Russian side is not a thing to be ignored. The risks for the Republic of Moldova are high, taking into consideration the presence of Russian troops on the Moldovan territory. Therefore, a clear reaction and concrete measures from Moldovan side regarding this subject is needed.\u201d<\/p>\n

Denis Cenu\u0219\u0103<\/strong>, the associated expert at Expert-Grup, considers that the development of the Kerch Strait conflict \u201cwill largely depend on the international community’s response.\u201d The actions and decisions of UN, NATO and EU international organizations, as well as the position of individual countries such as the US, Germany, France and the UK, will determine the Moscow\u2019s further steps.<\/p>\n

\u201cTaking into account the previous reactions of the international community to Russian aggression (Crime annexation, military action in Donbass, civilian plane MH17 crash, etc.), there is a low probability that other measures than economic and individual sanctions can stop the Russian Federation,\u201d says Cenu\u0219\u0103. On the other hand, he mentions that such measures may be followed by reactions of the Russian Federation, including shortening natural gas supplies, reactivating the crisis in Syria, extending economic sanctions, or triggering hybrid activities in countries vulnerable to populist movements.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fact that for Putin’s regime the military agenda prevails over diplomacy and \u201csoft power\u201d confirms an alarming direction that the Russian Federation is taking by rejecting international law and bilateral agreements.\u201d This shows that the reformist segments of the Russian society are incapable of sanctioning Putin’s authoritarian regime, whose foreign policy is wholly dominated by militaristic visions, according to Cenu\u0219\u0103.<\/p>\n

Regarding the conflicting information that appeared in the Russian and Ukrainian media, the expert notices that the Russian Federation is interested in exposing the events in a way it suits. \u201cIn the last two decades, the Russian crisis situations have always been misinterpreted by the pro-government press and Russian officials. Therefore, there are no reasons to trust the statements made in the Russian media this time.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the background of the information mismatch, one can see what the intentions of the Russian Federation are. First, Cenu\u0219\u0103 states that Russia uses military atrocities against Ukrainian ships to discredit Petr Poroshenko’s presidency in the context of the presidential election, in which Moscow relies on the candidacy of Yulia Tymoshenko. Second, Moscow wants to flood the national and international public space with the idea that the Azov Sea is treated as a Russian internal geographical area, although in reality this area belongs to Ukraine or it is shared with Ukraine. \u201cSo, we are witnessing a new act of legitimizing the illegal integration of Crimea into the Russian territory.\u201d Third, a new trend of expanding the Russian aggression from the earth to the sea can be observed. If in the Donbass region, Moscow claimed that the problem is in the separatist forces, which it can somehow masquerade, then in the waters of the Azov Sea this trend comes to the foreground, regardless of the misinformation angle.<\/p>\n

Concerning the possible influence of the conflict in the region, particularly for Moldova, Cenu\u0219\u0103 points out the opinion of the international military experts suggesting that Russia is capable of anything.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn a way, we are faced with a security and geopolitical reality easily disputed by Moscow whenever it deems necessary and neglecting any existing diplomatic framework. This represents a reason to worry, as Moldova has Russian military forces stationed in the Transnistrian region, low military training, lack of any solid strategic vision, and a local political context fragile or tolerant of Russian interference.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The conflict backgrounds<\/h4>\n

Since the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, an act that is not legally recognized by the international community, and a war with the pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine, these two countries have been locked in a continuous conflict. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have been steadily escalating in recent months.<\/p>\n

For example, last month, the conflict extended into the area of religion when the Ukrainian Orthodox Church officially broke free from Moscow\u2019s control. Besides, Ukraine and the United States have been accusing Russia of interfering with international shipping in and out of the Kerch Strait for some months now.<\/p>\n

Featured image source: CNN<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reading Time: <\/span> 6<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>A dangerous new crisis between Russia and Ukraine began after Russia seized 3 Ukrainian naval ships on Sunday morning, preventing them to enter the Kerch Strait \u2013 a narrow strip of water that links the Black and Azov seas and holds strategic importance for both countries. According to the Ukrainian navy cited in the international […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":446113,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,3,40,56,8],"tags":[89,91,87,90,35,27,32,88,92],"class_list":["post-446111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","category-politics","category-security","category-reportaje","category-world-news","tag-azov","tag-cenusa","tag-conflict","tag-experts","tag-important","tag-moldova","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-vasiloi"],"content_social_share":"Reading Time: <\/span> 6<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

A dangerous new crisis between Russia and Ukraine began after Russia seized 3 Ukrainian naval ships on Sunday morning, preventing them to enter the Kerch Strait \u2013 a narrow strip of water that links the Black and Azov seas and holds strategic importance for both countries.<\/p>\n

According to the Ukrainian navy cited in the international media<\/a>, a Russian vessel bumped into a Ukrainian tugboat Yany Kapu<\/em>. Along with Berdiansk and Nikopol<\/em> gunboats, it was transiting from Odessa to the port of Mariupol in the Sea of Azov. The Russian vessel opened fire and wounded several sailors. The tugboat Yany Kapu<\/em> and the gunboat Berdiansk<\/em> were disabled by the Russian forces and the undamaged Nikopol <\/em>was taken under control. Russia sent two combat helicopters to the location of the incident, as reported by the Ukrainian Navy. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry declares in a statement<\/a> that Russia acted \u201caggressively\u201d and \u201cillegally used force against the ships of the Ukrainian Navy.\u201d<\/p>\n

The office of the Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko qualified<\/a> the Russian action against the Ukrainian navy ships as “an act of aggression aimed at deliberately escalating the situation in the waters of the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait.” It also called for international condemnation of Moscow and the imposition of new sanctions. “We consider such actions categorically unacceptable and this aggression has already led to consequences,” said Petro Poroshenko.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, the Russian FSB security service states<\/a> that the border patrol boats captured the Ukrainian naval vessels by using weapons. The FSB declared it was forced to take action as the Ukrainian boats illegally entered its territorial waters and ignored warnings to stop, according to the news agency TASS. “Weapons were used with the aim of forcibly stopping the Ukrainian warships,” the FSB said. The Russian media speculates that the incident in the Kerch Strait was a conspiracy between the U.S. and Ukrainian authorities for endangering the upcoming meeting between the U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 Summit.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Source: Twitter<\/p><\/div>\n

As a response to the crisis, Russia temporarily blocked<\/a> the passage to the Kerch Strait by placing a tanker in the waters under a bridge controlled by Russians. The access way was reopened for the civilian ships only, according to TASS.<\/p>\n

The conflict seems to escalate even more as on Monday the Ukrainian lawmakers voted<\/a>, at the initiative of the country\u2019s president Petro Poroshenko, to declare martial law in 10 regions of Ukraine for a term of 30 days, starting in the morning of November 28th<\/sup>. The martial law also specifies that the election of President of Ukraine was set to March 31st<\/sup>, 2019.<\/p>\n

International community<\/h3>\n

European Union and NATO support the Ukraine sovereignty and its territorial integrity and calls on Russia “to ensure unhindered access to Ukrainian ports in the Azov Sea,” as Oana Lungescu, the spokesperson of NATO, declares in a statement<\/a> to CNN. At the same time, Rosemary DiCarlo, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs urged Ukraine and Russia \u201cto refrain from any ratcheting up of actions or rhetoric,\u201d as UN News reports<\/a>. \u201c[We] remind both [Russia and Ukraine] of the need to contain this incident so as to prevent a serious escalation that may have unforeseen consequences,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Source: UN News<\/p><\/div>\n

Several European states, including Romania and Republic of Moldova expressed their concern regarding the development of the Azov Sea and Kerch Strait conflict. \u201cAggression & violation of international law undermine the security of the whole region,\u201d declares the service of the Romanian Ministry of External Affairs. The Moldovan Ministry of External Affairs and European Integration expressed its \u201cprofound concern\u201d regarding the occurring events as well. \u201cWe firmly blame any acts of aggression and provocation that undermine the regional security,” the ministry said<\/a>. Both Romanian and Moldovan Ministries support \u201cthe territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine and its rights to use its territorial waters.\u201d<\/p>\n

Experts\u2019 opinion<\/h3>\n

Rosian Vasiloi<\/strong>, the IDIS “Viitorul” expert in security policies, qualifies the Ukrainian actions of transferring its vessels through the Kerch Strait as \u201cnot illegal,\u201d taking into consideration the previous agreements between Russia and Ukraine. Whereas the Russian actions \u201care a flagrant violation of the established agreements, Kremlin trying to set new game rules in the Black and Azov seas and maintaining the position that those are territorial waters under the Russian control,\u201d says Vasiloi.<\/p>\n

He considers that the main objectives of the Russian actions is to discourage assistance and support from the European institutions to Ukraine in the defence and security sector, to hinder the intention of joining NATO, as well as convincing the Ukrainian citizens about the weakness of the Navy Forces and promoting the propagandist messages in the context of future Ukrainian elections.<\/p>\n

Rosian Vasiloi expresses his expectations concerning a tough reaction from the international community, as tolerating such actions from the Russian side \u201cis way too much.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI expect that the Ukrainian authorities and the EU institutions would concentrate their forces for promoting policies and measures that would sanction a possible Russia\u2019s aggression against its neighbouring state.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The Republic of Moldova should align to these sanctions, considers Vasiloi. \u201cThe eventual war declaration from the Russian side is not a thing to be ignored. The risks for the Republic of Moldova are high, taking into consideration the presence of Russian troops on the Moldovan territory. Therefore, a clear reaction and concrete measures from Moldovan side regarding this subject is needed.\u201d<\/p>\n

Denis Cenu\u0219\u0103<\/strong>, the associated expert at Expert-Grup, considers that the development of the Kerch Strait conflict \u201cwill largely depend on the international community’s response.\u201d The actions and decisions of UN, NATO and EU international organizations, as well as the position of individual countries such as the US, Germany, France and the UK, will determine the Moscow\u2019s further steps.<\/p>\n

\u201cTaking into account the previous reactions of the international community to Russian aggression (Crime annexation, military action in Donbass, civilian plane MH17 crash, etc.), there is a low probability that other measures than economic and individual sanctions can stop the Russian Federation,\u201d says Cenu\u0219\u0103. On the other hand, he mentions that such measures may be followed by reactions of the Russian Federation, including shortening natural gas supplies, reactivating the crisis in Syria, extending economic sanctions, or triggering hybrid activities in countries vulnerable to populist movements.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fact that for Putin’s regime the military agenda prevails over diplomacy and \u201csoft power\u201d confirms an alarming direction that the Russian Federation is taking by rejecting international law and bilateral agreements.\u201d This shows that the reformist segments of the Russian society are incapable of sanctioning Putin’s authoritarian regime, whose foreign policy is wholly dominated by militaristic visions, according to Cenu\u0219\u0103.<\/p>\n

Regarding the conflicting information that appeared in the Russian and Ukrainian media, the expert notices that the Russian Federation is interested in exposing the events in a way it suits. \u201cIn the last two decades, the Russian crisis situations have always been misinterpreted by the pro-government press and Russian officials. Therefore, there are no reasons to trust the statements made in the Russian media this time.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the background of the information mismatch, one can see what the intentions of the Russian Federation are. First, Cenu\u0219\u0103 states that Russia uses military atrocities against Ukrainian ships to discredit Petr Poroshenko’s presidency in the context of the presidential election, in which Moscow relies on the candidacy of Yulia Tymoshenko. Second, Moscow wants to flood the national and international public space with the idea that the Azov Sea is treated as a Russian internal geographical area, although in reality this area belongs to Ukraine or it is shared with Ukraine. \u201cSo, we are witnessing a new act of legitimizing the illegal integration of Crimea into the Russian territory.\u201d Third, a new trend of expanding the Russian aggression from the earth to the sea can be observed. If in the Donbass region, Moscow claimed that the problem is in the separatist forces, which it can somehow masquerade, then in the waters of the Azov Sea this trend comes to the foreground, regardless of the misinformation angle.<\/p>\n

Concerning the possible influence of the conflict in the region, particularly for Moldova, Cenu\u0219\u0103 points out the opinion of the international military experts suggesting that Russia is capable of anything.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn a way, we are faced with a security and geopolitical reality easily disputed by Moscow whenever it deems necessary and neglecting any existing diplomatic framework. This represents a reason to worry, as Moldova has Russian military forces stationed in the Transnistrian region, low military training, lack of any solid strategic vision, and a local political context fragile or tolerant of Russian interference.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The conflict backgrounds<\/h4>\n

Since the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, an act that is not legally recognized by the international community, and a war with the pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine, these two countries have been locked in a continuous conflict. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have been steadily escalating in recent months.<\/p>\n

For example, last month, the conflict extended into the area of religion when the Ukrainian Orthodox Church officially broke free from Moscow\u2019s control. Besides, Ukraine and the United States have been accusing Russia of interfering with international shipping in and out of the Kerch Strait for some months now.<\/p>\n

Featured image source: CNN<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

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