{"id":444758,"date":"2017-10-26T11:18:57","date_gmt":"2017-10-26T11:18:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/?p=444758"},"modified":"2017-10-26T11:18:57","modified_gmt":"2017-10-26T11:18:57","slug":"will-trump-show-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/will-trump-show-end\/","title":{"rendered":"When Will the Trump Show End?"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 5<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

This opinion piece was written by\u00a0Dr. Ionas Aurelian Rus, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Cincinnati Blue Ash College (USA). The opinion does not necessarily represent the opinion of the editorial staff of Moldova.org.<\/em><\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

I have been asked repeatedly when the Trump presidency will end. My answer has been for several months “Probably on January 20, 2021”.
\nTrump’s presidency has been far from a success, yet the fact remains that whatever can be proven about Donald Trump, namely the fact that the real estate tycoon engaged in money laundering, is probably not one of the “high crimes and misdemeanors” necessary for impeachment and removal from office any more than Bill Clinton’s perjury about what he did with Monica “Jaws” Lewinsky. The issue of whether there is a “smoking gun” in connection with Russiagate is the wrong question. There is a smoking gun in the case of various people linked to Trump, some of whom will go to jail. Yet the interpretation of the evidence has come to be seen as an issue of opinion in the post-modern age of “alternative facts”. It is unlikely that two-thirds of the Senate will remove the president who lost the popular vote by almost three million votes to Hillary Clinton from office.
\nTrump’s popularity rate of 40%, which has been stationary for a long time, is not sufficient for re-election, yet it is also too high for impeachment. Very many of the Republican House of Representatives members will vote against impeachment due to the fear of Trumpist competition in the Republican primaries. They might be seen as “profiles in lack of courage” from a Democratic perspective, or as individuals dedicated to a Republican legislative agenda from some conservative perspectives. The standard conservative candidate for the Republican nomination for the Virginia governorship for 2017, Ed Gillespie, barely won by 43.7% against the Trumpist Corey Stuart, who got 42.5% on June 13, 2017. Many House of Representatives members do dislike Trump, but most of their voters despise the Democrats so much that impeachment is out of the question as long as the Republicans control the House. Even if the Democrats will win the House of Representatives elections of 2018, which is less than 50% likely, it is unlikely that two-thirds of the Senate will vote for Trump’s removal from office.
\nTrump has indeed lost some support in comparison with the November 2016 elections, but those voters whose support he has lost are unlikely to vote in the Republican primaries. He has lost the support of many of the Democratic populists and has gained the support of some former Cruz voters who are satisfied that the president is, surprisingly to them, conservative enough. Trump has been a “fake outsider”, in respect to China a “fake protectionist”, and probably a fake populist. Unlike the wealthy, but elitist, 2012 Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, he does not strike one as an elitist who would eat “grey poupon, one of the life’s finer pleasures”. Just like Bill Clinton, Trump likes McDonald’s.
\nTrump has been lucky with his enemies, not only in the Republican primaries and the general election but also in the press. The flaw of the mostly Democratic Washington and New York press, especially in relation to Russiagate, is obsessiveness, which makes it boring for a person with a short attention span. That Trump has been guilty of unethical behavior is clear. Yet his spirited defense of his former National Security Adviser Mike Flynn is less reminiscent of Richard Nixon during Watergate from the movie “All the President’s Men” (though the reality was more complex than the movie), and more similar to Harry Truman’s defense of the former State Department employee and Soviet Communist spy Alger Hiss, who was convicted of perjury in 1950.
\nThere was also a fear that Donald Trump would hand over various countries such as Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia to the Russian sphere of influence. This has not happened at the G-20 meeting, while in Warsaw, Poland, Trump fully endorsed NATO. Would there have been more leaks about Trumpworld’s links with Russia if NATO would not have been fully endorsed, or if Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia would have been handed over by Trump to the Russian sphere of influence? Perhaps. Yet this is not the age when this could be easily done. There is, after all, even a European Union which does not want these countries to join the Russian sphere of influence. If he would have attempted to help Putin expand his sphere of influence, that would have constituted proof of intentionality and thus of impeachability in the Trump team’s collusion with Russia. And Trump is still a very intelligent man, who knows how to hire very well-paid, very smart lawyers.
\nYet reciprocating Russian president’s Vladimir Putin’s endorsement of Trump during the 2016 elections and his “extra credit” help with the elections, as one of my former students called it, Trump has de facto endorsed Putin for his 2018 re-election at G-20. Trump’s past investments in other countries before his presidency did not take into account human rights. The current administration has been much less supportive of human rights around the world than any U.S. president since Jimmy Carter, to the immense pleasure of Russia’s president. Putin seems indeed like Dr. Evil. We are thus dealing with organized evil, whereas Trump is merely “creative” with his Twitter.
\nThe charismatic Republican star Trump, who succeeded Barack Obama, has also benefited from opponents who were not charismatic in the Republican primaries and caucuses, and against Hillary Clinton in the general election. Trump was quite original in his insults, but his elite opponents have not been up to the task. It is hard to imagine that any Republican could defeat Trump in the quest for the Republican nomination for 2020, and the opinion polls are showing that he would get the support of 59 to 68% in September 2018. Ohio’s Republican governor John Kasich, who is of Czech and Croatian ancestry, is planning to run for the Republican nomination in 2020 and will damage Trump.
\nTrump has also benefited from Putin’s “useful idiots” from the unreasonable left of the Jill Stein, Oliver Stone, and Stephen Cohen variety, who could be seen on RT (Russia Today) and in other places. Trump is afraid of being assassinated by the CIA, just as in Oliver Stone’s famous movie, “JFK”. Progressive public figures have not taken a position against Putin’s useful idiots, though they should have. In 1948, the mainstream liberals defined the pro-Soviet Russian elements as beyond the pale, but this did not happen in 2016. And, in a certain section of academia, there is more sympathy for those fired from the State Department under Secretaries of State Clinton and Kerry under Obama for being too pro-Russia than for those fired under Secretary of State Tillerson under Trump for being too anti-Russia.
\nCould Trump be re-elected? This is unlikely, but not impossible, in the case of a catastrophe like the 9\/11\/2001 attacks, or of a series of bomb threats and actual bombings in the bathrooms in train stations and colleges, brought to us by Russian intelligence under the “modest” guidance of Vladimir Putin. Could Trump be impeached and removed from office? This is very unlikely, but he might resign a la Richard Nixon, and he might even invoke health as a reason for his resignation. Yet even that scenario of a shortened Trump presidency is unlikely.
\nSo Trump will probably continue serving as the president of the U.S. until January 20, 2021, after which he will probably be succeeded by the Democratic presidential candidate. In any case, his epitaph should be, just like that of Plunkitt of Tammany Hall, “He Seen His Opportunities, and He Took ‘Em.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reading Time: <\/span> 5<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>This opinion piece was written by\u00a0Dr. Ionas Aurelian Rus, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Cincinnati Blue Ash College (USA). The opinion does not necessarily represent the opinion of the editorial staff of Moldova.org. *** I have been asked repeatedly when the Trump presidency will end. My answer has been for several […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":443053,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-444758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion"],"content_social_share":"Reading Time: <\/span> 5<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

This opinion piece was written by\u00a0Dr. Ionas Aurelian Rus, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Cincinnati Blue Ash College (USA). The opinion does not necessarily represent the opinion of the editorial staff of Moldova.org.<\/em><\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

I have been asked repeatedly when the Trump presidency will end. My answer has been for several months “Probably on January 20, 2021”.
\nTrump’s presidency has been far from a success, yet the fact remains that whatever can be proven about Donald Trump, namely the fact that the real estate tycoon engaged in money laundering, is probably not one of the “high crimes and misdemeanors” necessary for impeachment and removal from office any more than Bill Clinton’s perjury about what he did with Monica “Jaws” Lewinsky. The issue of whether there is a “smoking gun” in connection with Russiagate is the wrong question. There is a smoking gun in the case of various people linked to Trump, some of whom will go to jail. Yet the interpretation of the evidence has come to be seen as an issue of opinion in the post-modern age of “alternative facts”. It is unlikely that two-thirds of the Senate will remove the president who lost the popular vote by almost three million votes to Hillary Clinton from office.
\nTrump’s popularity rate of 40%, which has been stationary for a long time, is not sufficient for re-election, yet it is also too high for impeachment. Very many of the Republican House of Representatives members will vote against impeachment due to the fear of Trumpist competition in the Republican primaries. They might be seen as “profiles in lack of courage” from a Democratic perspective, or as individuals dedicated to a Republican legislative agenda from some conservative perspectives. The standard conservative candidate for the Republican nomination for the Virginia governorship for 2017, Ed Gillespie, barely won by 43.7% against the Trumpist Corey Stuart, who got 42.5% on June 13, 2017. Many House of Representatives members do dislike Trump, but most of their voters despise the Democrats so much that impeachment is out of the question as long as the Republicans control the House. Even if the Democrats will win the House of Representatives elections of 2018, which is less than 50% likely, it is unlikely that two-thirds of the Senate will vote for Trump’s removal from office.
\nTrump has indeed lost some support in comparison with the November 2016 elections, but those voters whose support he has lost are unlikely to vote in the Republican primaries. He has lost the support of many of the Democratic populists and has gained the support of some former Cruz voters who are satisfied that the president is, surprisingly to them, conservative enough. Trump has been a “fake outsider”, in respect to China a “fake protectionist”, and probably a fake populist. Unlike the wealthy, but elitist, 2012 Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, he does not strike one as an elitist who would eat “grey poupon, one of the life’s finer pleasures”. Just like Bill Clinton, Trump likes McDonald’s.
\nTrump has been lucky with his enemies, not only in the Republican primaries and the general election but also in the press. The flaw of the mostly Democratic Washington and New York press, especially in relation to Russiagate, is obsessiveness, which makes it boring for a person with a short attention span. That Trump has been guilty of unethical behavior is clear. Yet his spirited defense of his former National Security Adviser Mike Flynn is less reminiscent of Richard Nixon during Watergate from the movie “All the President’s Men” (though the reality was more complex than the movie), and more similar to Harry Truman’s defense of the former State Department employee and Soviet Communist spy Alger Hiss, who was convicted of perjury in 1950.
\nThere was also a fear that Donald Trump would hand over various countries such as Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia to the Russian sphere of influence. This has not happened at the G-20 meeting, while in Warsaw, Poland, Trump fully endorsed NATO. Would there have been more leaks about Trumpworld’s links with Russia if NATO would not have been fully endorsed, or if Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia would have been handed over by Trump to the Russian sphere of influence? Perhaps. Yet this is not the age when this could be easily done. There is, after all, even a European Union which does not want these countries to join the Russian sphere of influence. If he would have attempted to help Putin expand his sphere of influence, that would have constituted proof of intentionality and thus of impeachability in the Trump team’s collusion with Russia. And Trump is still a very intelligent man, who knows how to hire very well-paid, very smart lawyers.
\nYet reciprocating Russian president’s Vladimir Putin’s endorsement of Trump during the 2016 elections and his “extra credit” help with the elections, as one of my former students called it, Trump has de facto endorsed Putin for his 2018 re-election at G-20. Trump’s past investments in other countries before his presidency did not take into account human rights. The current administration has been much less supportive of human rights around the world than any U.S. president since Jimmy Carter, to the immense pleasure of Russia’s president. Putin seems indeed like Dr. Evil. We are thus dealing with organized evil, whereas Trump is merely “creative” with his Twitter.
\nThe charismatic Republican star Trump, who succeeded Barack Obama, has also benefited from opponents who were not charismatic in the Republican primaries and caucuses, and against Hillary Clinton in the general election. Trump was quite original in his insults, but his elite opponents have not been up to the task. It is hard to imagine that any Republican could defeat Trump in the quest for the Republican nomination for 2020, and the opinion polls are showing that he would get the support of 59 to 68% in September 2018. Ohio’s Republican governor John Kasich, who is of Czech and Croatian ancestry, is planning to run for the Republican nomination in 2020 and will damage Trump.
\nTrump has also benefited from Putin’s “useful idiots” from the unreasonable left of the Jill Stein, Oliver Stone, and Stephen Cohen variety, who could be seen on RT (Russia Today) and in other places. Trump is afraid of being assassinated by the CIA, just as in Oliver Stone’s famous movie, “JFK”. Progressive public figures have not taken a position against Putin’s useful idiots, though they should have. In 1948, the mainstream liberals defined the pro-Soviet Russian elements as beyond the pale, but this did not happen in 2016. And, in a certain section of academia, there is more sympathy for those fired from the State Department under Secretaries of State Clinton and Kerry under Obama for being too pro-Russia than for those fired under Secretary of State Tillerson under Trump for being too anti-Russia.
\nCould Trump be re-elected? This is unlikely, but not impossible, in the case of a catastrophe like the 9\/11\/2001 attacks, or of a series of bomb threats and actual bombings in the bathrooms in train stations and colleges, brought to us by Russian intelligence under the “modest” guidance of Vladimir Putin. Could Trump be impeached and removed from office? This is very unlikely, but he might resign a la Richard Nixon, and he might even invoke health as a reason for his resignation. Yet even that scenario of a shortened Trump presidency is unlikely.
\nSo Trump will probably continue serving as the president of the U.S. until January 20, 2021, after which he will probably be succeeded by the Democratic presidential candidate. In any case, his epitaph should be, just like that of Plunkitt of Tammany Hall, “He Seen His Opportunities, and He Took ‘Em.”<\/p>\n

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