{"id":444201,"date":"2017-08-02T10:04:23","date_gmt":"2017-08-02T10:04:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/?p=444201"},"modified":"2017-08-02T10:04:23","modified_gmt":"2017-08-02T10:04:23","slug":"socialist-federalization-plan-just-bad-moldova-kozak-plan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/socialist-federalization-plan-just-bad-moldova-kozak-plan\/","title":{"rendered":"The Socialist Federalization Plan Is Just as Bad for Moldova as the Kozak Plan"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 4<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

This opinion piece was written by\u00a0Dr. Ionas Aurelian Rus, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Cincinnati Blue Ash College (USA). The opinion does not necessarily represent the opinion of the editorial staff of Moldova.org.<\/em><\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

The federalization plan of the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova, supported by Moldovan President Igor Dodon, may be found on the party’s website<\/a>. Unfortunately, the content of this plan is not known by enough people. Almost all of the information below may be found in the Socialist and other public sources, and the rest of the information comes from Western, especially American, interceptions, of Russian internal communications. It is not the fault of the author of this article if what Dodon said was misunderstood by the Russian authorities.<\/p>\n

As is typical in federal states, the legislature of a potential federal Moldova, discussed in Article 5 of the Socialist plan, is bicameral, composed of the Senate and the House of Representatives. The reason why the names of the two chambers of the US Congress have been chosen is likely to increase the chances that the U.S. authorities would be neutral to this plan. The order in which the two chambers are discussed in the Socialist plan is, however, different from that in the American constitution. The Senate is discussed before the House of Representatives, because the intent is that the Senate should be more powerful in the “Moldovan Federal Republic”.<\/p>\n

The intent is that the Senate should be composed of 27 members, compared to 26 members in the 2003 Kozak Plan, which Moldova’s Communist president Vladimir Voronin refused to sign after initialing it due to societal opposition. According to the Socialist plan, “The number of senators from each of the subjects of the federation is determined by the need to ensure a proper representation in the legislative branch of the of power in the federation, irrespective of the size of the territory of the federation’s subject.” Although it was not included in the plan, and is only known from the interception of Russian internal communications, Transnistria will have 10 senators and Gagauzia 4. In other words, the two regions will have a majority in the Senate (14 out of 27 members). According to the Kozak plan, the 9 senators representing Transnistria and the 4 from Gagauzia represented exactly half of the 26 senators. Therefore, from this point of view, Dodon’s plan is worse for the majority population of the Republic of Moldova than the Kozak Plan. Senators are to be elected by the legislatures of (smaller) Moldova, Transnistria and Gagauzia, not by the population. It was the same way in the United States until 1913, or better, until the senators began to be elected directly by the voters, a third in 1914, a third in 1916 and a third in 1918. Before this change, when the legislatures of the states chose the senators, the system was corrupt.<\/p>\n

In the Transnistrian separatist census of 2015, Transnistria had 475,000 inhabitants, of which 28.5% self-identified as Moldovans, 29.1% as Russians, and 22.9% as Ukrainians. Probably no linguistic statistics will appear, but most of the population of Transnistria is Russophone. In Gagauzia, with 104,449 inhabitants, 95.3% of the population is made up of ethnic minorities, including 83.8% Gagauz, according to the Moldovan census of 2014. In the rest of the Republic of Moldova, there were 2,409,034 inhabitants at the last census, more than 86% from the majority population. In conclusion, the 19.38% of the inhabitants of Transnistria and Gagauzia will be represented by the majority of the Senate according to the Socialist plan.<\/p>\n

Both the composition of the cabinet of ministers and that of the Supreme Court and the Constitutional Court, which will immediately have a new composition, will be proposed by the president and will have to be approved by the Senate and only by the Senate. Moreover, one may find in point 8.4 that “the Federal Constitutional Court is to be created on a parity basis, in accordance with the principle of equal rights of the subjects in defense of their rights.” According to the Kozak Plan, of 11 members of the Constitutional Court, only four were to be appointed by the Supreme Soviet of Transnistria and one of the Gagauz legislature. Therefore, in the Socialist plan, the regions with separatist tendencies would be favored more than in the Kozak Plan. Such a Constitutional Court will probably not stop Dodon’s dictatorial tendencies, but will approve them.<\/p>\n

Nowhere in the plan is it written that the “Moldovan language” will use the Latin alphabet, and Dodon in fact promised the return to the Cyrillic alphabet. In fact, the “Moldovan language” will use both Latin and Cyrillic alphabets. Although it is not written in the plan, Russian will become the second official language, something that was not included in the Kozak Plan, but was publicly mentioned by Dodon. There is nothing written about the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria. The Transnistrian armed forces will be maintained for a while. They will include many soldiers, many of whom are currently in the Russian army.<\/p>\n

Although it is not written in the public version of the plan, the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova will be canceled and replaced with Dodon’s federalization plan after the signing of an agreement between the leaders of the Republic of Moldova and Transnistria, with Russia’s approval and US neutrality, without the EU or Ukraine if they will oppose it, and will be guaranteed by the Russian Federation. Of course, this will only be possible if the Socialists will get a majority in parliament in 2018, but this majority will not have to be three-fifths or two-thirds, because this is not about amending the constitution but replacing it.<\/p>\n

The plan does not indicate that the population will have the right to vote if they approve the plan or not. The Kozak Plan mentioned the approval of the plan through a referendum. It is possible that a referendum will take place throughout the Republic of Moldova, but this is not mentioned in the plan. In addition, this referendum may be fraudulent. The Central Electoral Commission is not mentioned in the federalization plan.<\/p>\n

Dodon relies on the neutrality of the Western diplomats against such plans. It is hard to say whether he is right or not. However, Dodon’s federalization plans must be combatted massively, intensively and totally. The victory of the pro-Western or declared pro-Western forces in the parliamentary elections, i.e., without the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova, the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova and Our Party, would guarantee the avoidance of federalization.<\/p>\n

In conclusion, the Socialist plans for federalization are a clear and immediate danger. Dodon’s plans are at least as bad as the Kozak Plan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reading Time: <\/span> 4<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>This opinion piece was written by\u00a0Dr. Ionas Aurelian Rus, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Cincinnati Blue Ash College (USA). The opinion does not necessarily represent the opinion of the editorial staff of Moldova.org. *** The federalization plan of the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova, supported by Moldovan President […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":442887,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-444201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-important-en","category-opinion"],"content_social_share":"Reading Time: <\/span> 4<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

This opinion piece was written by\u00a0Dr. Ionas Aurelian Rus, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Cincinnati Blue Ash College (USA). The opinion does not necessarily represent the opinion of the editorial staff of Moldova.org.<\/em><\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

The federalization plan of the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova, supported by Moldovan President Igor Dodon, may be found on the party’s website<\/a>. Unfortunately, the content of this plan is not known by enough people. Almost all of the information below may be found in the Socialist and other public sources, and the rest of the information comes from Western, especially American, interceptions, of Russian internal communications. It is not the fault of the author of this article if what Dodon said was misunderstood by the Russian authorities.<\/p>\n

As is typical in federal states, the legislature of a potential federal Moldova, discussed in Article 5 of the Socialist plan, is bicameral, composed of the Senate and the House of Representatives. The reason why the names of the two chambers of the US Congress have been chosen is likely to increase the chances that the U.S. authorities would be neutral to this plan. The order in which the two chambers are discussed in the Socialist plan is, however, different from that in the American constitution. The Senate is discussed before the House of Representatives, because the intent is that the Senate should be more powerful in the “Moldovan Federal Republic”.<\/p>\n

The intent is that the Senate should be composed of 27 members, compared to 26 members in the 2003 Kozak Plan, which Moldova’s Communist president Vladimir Voronin refused to sign after initialing it due to societal opposition. According to the Socialist plan, “The number of senators from each of the subjects of the federation is determined by the need to ensure a proper representation in the legislative branch of the of power in the federation, irrespective of the size of the territory of the federation’s subject.” Although it was not included in the plan, and is only known from the interception of Russian internal communications, Transnistria will have 10 senators and Gagauzia 4. In other words, the two regions will have a majority in the Senate (14 out of 27 members). According to the Kozak plan, the 9 senators representing Transnistria and the 4 from Gagauzia represented exactly half of the 26 senators. Therefore, from this point of view, Dodon’s plan is worse for the majority population of the Republic of Moldova than the Kozak Plan. Senators are to be elected by the legislatures of (smaller) Moldova, Transnistria and Gagauzia, not by the population. It was the same way in the United States until 1913, or better, until the senators began to be elected directly by the voters, a third in 1914, a third in 1916 and a third in 1918. Before this change, when the legislatures of the states chose the senators, the system was corrupt.<\/p>\n

In the Transnistrian separatist census of 2015, Transnistria had 475,000 inhabitants, of which 28.5% self-identified as Moldovans, 29.1% as Russians, and 22.9% as Ukrainians. Probably no linguistic statistics will appear, but most of the population of Transnistria is Russophone. In Gagauzia, with 104,449 inhabitants, 95.3% of the population is made up of ethnic minorities, including 83.8% Gagauz, according to the Moldovan census of 2014. In the rest of the Republic of Moldova, there were 2,409,034 inhabitants at the last census, more than 86% from the majority population. In conclusion, the 19.38% of the inhabitants of Transnistria and Gagauzia will be represented by the majority of the Senate according to the Socialist plan.<\/p>\n

Both the composition of the cabinet of ministers and that of the Supreme Court and the Constitutional Court, which will immediately have a new composition, will be proposed by the president and will have to be approved by the Senate and only by the Senate. Moreover, one may find in point 8.4 that “the Federal Constitutional Court is to be created on a parity basis, in accordance with the principle of equal rights of the subjects in defense of their rights.” According to the Kozak Plan, of 11 members of the Constitutional Court, only four were to be appointed by the Supreme Soviet of Transnistria and one of the Gagauz legislature. Therefore, in the Socialist plan, the regions with separatist tendencies would be favored more than in the Kozak Plan. Such a Constitutional Court will probably not stop Dodon’s dictatorial tendencies, but will approve them.<\/p>\n

Nowhere in the plan is it written that the “Moldovan language” will use the Latin alphabet, and Dodon in fact promised the return to the Cyrillic alphabet. In fact, the “Moldovan language” will use both Latin and Cyrillic alphabets. Although it is not written in the plan, Russian will become the second official language, something that was not included in the Kozak Plan, but was publicly mentioned by Dodon. There is nothing written about the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria. The Transnistrian armed forces will be maintained for a while. They will include many soldiers, many of whom are currently in the Russian army.<\/p>\n

Although it is not written in the public version of the plan, the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova will be canceled and replaced with Dodon’s federalization plan after the signing of an agreement between the leaders of the Republic of Moldova and Transnistria, with Russia’s approval and US neutrality, without the EU or Ukraine if they will oppose it, and will be guaranteed by the Russian Federation. Of course, this will only be possible if the Socialists will get a majority in parliament in 2018, but this majority will not have to be three-fifths or two-thirds, because this is not about amending the constitution but replacing it.<\/p>\n

The plan does not indicate that the population will have the right to vote if they approve the plan or not. The Kozak Plan mentioned the approval of the plan through a referendum. It is possible that a referendum will take place throughout the Republic of Moldova, but this is not mentioned in the plan. In addition, this referendum may be fraudulent. The Central Electoral Commission is not mentioned in the federalization plan.<\/p>\n

Dodon relies on the neutrality of the Western diplomats against such plans. It is hard to say whether he is right or not. However, Dodon’s federalization plans must be combatted massively, intensively and totally. The victory of the pro-Western or declared pro-Western forces in the parliamentary elections, i.e., without the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova, the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova and Our Party, would guarantee the avoidance of federalization.<\/p>\n

In conclusion, the Socialist plans for federalization are a clear and immediate danger. Dodon’s plans are at least as bad as the Kozak Plan.<\/p>\n

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