{"id":408840,"date":"2015-01-14T14:40:59","date_gmt":"2015-01-14T12:40:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.moldova.org\/?p=408840"},"modified":"2015-01-14T14:40:59","modified_gmt":"2015-01-14T12:40:59","slug":"mihai-cernencu-even-if-russia-reopens-its-market-for-moldova-we-must-understand-that-the-crises-might-repeat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/mihai-cernencu-even-if-russia-reopens-its-market-for-moldova-we-must-understand-that-the-crises-might-repeat\/","title":{"rendered":"Mihai Cernencu: Even if Russia reopens its market for Moldova, we must understand that the crises might repeat"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 6<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

The year 2014 will go down in history also because of the tensed regional situation: the Russian military aggression against Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea. The world, as we have known it in the last 50 years, has changed dramatically this year. International experts commented after Russia infringed on the principles of the international law and annexed Crimea by military force. The university professor, Mihai Cernencu, has a different opinion.<\/p>\n

Mihai Cernencu: <\/b>It\u2019s the Russian Federation which sustains the world has changed and that we must accept new realities. I don’t think so. As long as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union exist, as well as the current structure of international relations, we can say that after 2014 the world will never be the same.<\/p>\n

There have appeared a series of ideas in the Russian Federation which, in my opinion, are bizarre. For example, the representatives of the Russian diplomacy, as well as the head of the Kremlin, say that “NATO is getting close to the Russian borders.” This is a real aberration. NATO, through the USA has direct borders with the Russian Federation in the Far East, while Turkey has been a NATO member since 1947. I do not see how the entry of Bulgaria was able to get NATO closer to the Russian Federation given that Turkey has direct borders with Russia. Moreover, Romania does not have common borders with the Russian Federation either. It is true that the Baltic countries have joined NATO and they have done it simply because they are afraid of another invasion of Russia, the successor of the Soviet Union, because Moscow has always tried to destabilize these countries.<\/p>\n

The tsarist foreign policy and the foreign policy of the USSR do not differ at all from the foreign policy of the Russian Federation. In 1939 the Soviet Union created the Karelian-Finnish Soviet Socialist Republic in order to start a war in Finland. Fortunately, 11 thousand international volunteers came and fought back the Soviet Union. The Soviet press was writing then that the USSR was not fighting against Finland but was supporting the Karelian-Finnish Republic to fight against the bourgeois regime there. That happened in the conditions when the Soviet Union was simply swept from the League of Nations for the aggression against Finland. And today, we see Luhansk, Donetsk, the Transnistrian republic … I assure you that there is no difference whatsoever between the foreign policy of the USSR and that of the Russian Federation.<\/p>\n

Economically, half a year was enough for Russia to feel fully the embargo imposed by the EU and the USA in connection with Ukraine. In the beginning, Moscow said that European sanctions din not affect it. And we saw it that it was true. Iran, for example, has been under embargo for 40 years and its economy is still operating according to certain economic laws. While in Russia no economic law is being respected today.<\/p>\n

Altogether, the external sanctions and the domestic situation, but also the dramatic fall in the oil prices on the international market has led to the current situation in Russia. As a result, the Russian economy has been seriously hit.<\/p>\n

These things are so bizarre and strange, that at some point you think it\u2019s a science fiction film. At leas,t it does not look like reality. And it seems that the Russian Federation is not connected to the reality. I believe that the true wakening will happen after the New Year. The sharp depreciation of the ruble shows distrust in the government, Putin and the Russian financial system. The process of money withdrawal from banks will start. It will be then that the disaster will begin and the \u201ckr\u00eemna\u015f” will go down in history. Things will look really bad in future and I believe that what Russia did in Ukraine could expand to the Russian Federation.<\/p>\n

Lina Gr\u00e2u: S<\/b>peaking about the complicated financial situation in the Russian Federation, there are two opinions at Chisinau. Some say that the situation in Russia does not affect us as we are not so connected with the Russian market as we were some years ago. Others say it will anyway affect the situation in Moldova having a big impact on the national currency, trade and the situation of migrants. How do you see things?<\/p>\n

M.C.:\u00a0<\/b>I thank all the saints that Moldova is not that connected economically to the Russian Federation due to the embargoes that Moscow has imposed on us. And thank God!
\nWe will be affected to the extent of our deposits in the banks in the Russian Federation. The Moldovan banks which have deposits in those banks may not be able to recover them.<\/p>\n

Secondly, can you imagine that the Moldovan migrants working in the Russian Federation, which account for about 25 to 27 percent of all migrants could return to Moldova as they will not be paid for their work? \u00a0I don\u2019t think that their salaries will be increased three times. For example, a worker who received 20 thousand rubles when one dollar was 30 rubles had a different situation than today when 1 dollar became 60-70 rubles. Our migrants will not be able to make savings to send them home and even worse, they will hardly be able to make both ends meet.<\/p>\n

The third aspect, I know what happened in 1997-1998 when many exporters of sugar, fruit, and vegetables, have lost practically everything. They had signed the contracts in rubles when the ruble flew from 6 to 30 rubles for one US dollar. When they received their money in rubles they had really difficult times. Now, it is important to learn the lesson – no matter what happens next and no matter the trade possibilities, we should understand once and for all that the crises will repeat in future. Looking back to what happened in 1988-1989 and then in 1998, and now in \u00a02014 to 2015, I’m not sure this will not happen again. What other experiences could convince our citizens and politicians that Russia is not a safe place? We have to do a lot in this sense and the EU is helping us to put the Association Agreement into practice. The Association Agreement through the financial assistance provided by the EU, is trying to teach us how to trade and how to produce qualitative products in order to be competitive on the EU markets.<\/p>\n

L.G.:<\/b> Why is Russia afraid of signing the Association Agreement by Ukraine and Moldova?<\/p>\n

M.C.:\u00a0<\/b>Russia is losing its markets. Where will it be selling its products if not in Ukraine where there are 45 million consumers?
\nSecondly, Putin’s greatest fear is that together with the beginning of democracy and prosperity in Ukraine, the example given by Ukraine as a modernized and democratic state could be thousands of times more dangerous than any weapon at the border with the Russian Federation. The example of Ukraine could be bewildering to the people in the Russian Federation. That’s actually why Russia is trying so fiercely to destabilize Ukraine. Having a prosperous and democratic Ukraine at its border, the more so that it will not be able to penetrate its market, means the beginning of the end of the Russian Federation.<\/p>\n

L.G.: <\/b>One of the important events of the year was the parliamentary elections from November 30th. Much has been said about the fact that this vote was decisive for Moldova’s European course. How should the Moldovan political class behave so that the European integration process continues and its benefits are felt by the citizens?<\/p>\n

M.C.:\u00a0<\/b>If people enter politics in order to have benefits, we have what we have now. If, however, they enter politics following the state interests it is different. The Czech Republic, Estonia, and Poland for example, did have such responsible politicians. This is really important as not everybody can make politics to the benefit of the society.
\nFor example, in our country people enter politics for profit. And in this case, the politics is not to the benefit of the society and citizens.<\/p>\n

L.G.:\u00a0<\/b>If this rather sad situation described by you perpetuates the European prospects of Moldova will remain unclear. What would have to be changed in the way politics is done? Are there factors of change in Moldova?<\/p>\n

M.C.:\u00a0<\/b>As long as what I said above about the politics which brings benefits to certain people remains valid in Moldova, we will not able to move forward. Things will start changing when our well-trained young people who are abroad now come back and take over the governance, including ministries. It is only when the critical mass of these people come home, that the things will start changing.<\/p>\n

Lina Gr\u00e2u:<\/b>\u00a0<\/b>Do you see the possibility for Moldova to get closer to the EU in 2015? Is a functional government early next year possible ?<\/p>\n

Mihai Cernencu: <\/b>I would like that we have a government by the end of this year but I am not sure this will happen. I would prefer a broader alliance than one of the three parties as this way the social base for the support of the European integration will increase. The government programme must match the Association Agreement. The authorities have to adopt next year over 300 laws which should lead to the harmonization of the Moldovan legislation with that of the EU, which is a very long and complicated process.
\nI wish that at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Riga we achieved what our authorities promised in 2013 – to submit an application for EU membership. There are good relations at the personal level between Leanca and Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission. The meetings and the visit that Donald Tusk, the chairman of the European Council, will pay to Moldova are also very important in this sense.<\/p>\n

But on this way, two inherent conditions \u2013 fighting against corruption and the reforms- are extremely important. The EU will apply the \u201cmore for more\u201d principle -more reforms – more money, fewer reforms – less money. This interdependence between what we do and the EU funding could become fundamental for the politicians, the government, and the Republic of Moldova as a state.
\nThe only solution for the modernization and prosperity of Moldova is the European Union.<\/p>\n

The interview was done by\u00a0Lina Gr\u00e2u, foreign policy expert and programme coordinator of the Foreign Policy Association of Moldova.\u00a0<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reading Time: <\/span> 6<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>The year 2014 will go down in history also because of the tensed regional situation: the Russian military aggression against Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea. The world, as we have known it in the last 50 years, has changed dramatically this year. International experts commented after Russia infringed on the principles of the international […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":181932,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-408840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion"],"content_social_share":"Reading Time: <\/span> 6<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

The year 2014 will go down in history also because of the tensed regional situation: the Russian military aggression against Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea. The world, as we have known it in the last 50 years, has changed dramatically this year. International experts commented after Russia infringed on the principles of the international law and annexed Crimea by military force. The university professor, Mihai Cernencu, has a different opinion.<\/p>\n

Mihai Cernencu: <\/b>It\u2019s the Russian Federation which sustains the world has changed and that we must accept new realities. I don’t think so. As long as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union exist, as well as the current structure of international relations, we can say that after 2014 the world will never be the same.<\/p>\n

There have appeared a series of ideas in the Russian Federation which, in my opinion, are bizarre. For example, the representatives of the Russian diplomacy, as well as the head of the Kremlin, say that “NATO is getting close to the Russian borders.” This is a real aberration. NATO, through the USA has direct borders with the Russian Federation in the Far East, while Turkey has been a NATO member since 1947. I do not see how the entry of Bulgaria was able to get NATO closer to the Russian Federation given that Turkey has direct borders with Russia. Moreover, Romania does not have common borders with the Russian Federation either. It is true that the Baltic countries have joined NATO and they have done it simply because they are afraid of another invasion of Russia, the successor of the Soviet Union, because Moscow has always tried to destabilize these countries.<\/p>\n

The tsarist foreign policy and the foreign policy of the USSR do not differ at all from the foreign policy of the Russian Federation. In 1939 the Soviet Union created the Karelian-Finnish Soviet Socialist Republic in order to start a war in Finland. Fortunately, 11 thousand international volunteers came and fought back the Soviet Union. The Soviet press was writing then that the USSR was not fighting against Finland but was supporting the Karelian-Finnish Republic to fight against the bourgeois regime there. That happened in the conditions when the Soviet Union was simply swept from the League of Nations for the aggression against Finland. And today, we see Luhansk, Donetsk, the Transnistrian republic … I assure you that there is no difference whatsoever between the foreign policy of the USSR and that of the Russian Federation.<\/p>\n

Economically, half a year was enough for Russia to feel fully the embargo imposed by the EU and the USA in connection with Ukraine. In the beginning, Moscow said that European sanctions din not affect it. And we saw it that it was true. Iran, for example, has been under embargo for 40 years and its economy is still operating according to certain economic laws. While in Russia no economic law is being respected today.<\/p>\n

Altogether, the external sanctions and the domestic situation, but also the dramatic fall in the oil prices on the international market has led to the current situation in Russia. As a result, the Russian economy has been seriously hit.<\/p>\n

These things are so bizarre and strange, that at some point you think it\u2019s a science fiction film. At leas,t it does not look like reality. And it seems that the Russian Federation is not connected to the reality. I believe that the true wakening will happen after the New Year. The sharp depreciation of the ruble shows distrust in the government, Putin and the Russian financial system. The process of money withdrawal from banks will start. It will be then that the disaster will begin and the \u201ckr\u00eemna\u015f” will go down in history. Things will look really bad in future and I believe that what Russia did in Ukraine could expand to the Russian Federation.<\/p>\n

Lina Gr\u00e2u: S<\/b>peaking about the complicated financial situation in the Russian Federation, there are two opinions at Chisinau. Some say that the situation in Russia does not affect us as we are not so connected with the Russian market as we were some years ago. Others say it will anyway affect the situation in Moldova having a big impact on the national currency, trade and the situation of migrants. How do you see things?<\/p>\n

M.C.:\u00a0<\/b>I thank all the saints that Moldova is not that connected economically to the Russian Federation due to the embargoes that Moscow has imposed on us. And thank God!
\nWe will be affected to the extent of our deposits in the banks in the Russian Federation. The Moldovan banks which have deposits in those banks may not be able to recover them.<\/p>\n

Secondly, can you imagine that the Moldovan migrants working in the Russian Federation, which account for about 25 to 27 percent of all migrants could return to Moldova as they will not be paid for their work? \u00a0I don\u2019t think that their salaries will be increased three times. For example, a worker who received 20 thousand rubles when one dollar was 30 rubles had a different situation than today when 1 dollar became 60-70 rubles. Our migrants will not be able to make savings to send them home and even worse, they will hardly be able to make both ends meet.<\/p>\n

The third aspect, I know what happened in 1997-1998 when many exporters of sugar, fruit, and vegetables, have lost practically everything. They had signed the contracts in rubles when the ruble flew from 6 to 30 rubles for one US dollar. When they received their money in rubles they had really difficult times. Now, it is important to learn the lesson – no matter what happens next and no matter the trade possibilities, we should understand once and for all that the crises will repeat in future. Looking back to what happened in 1988-1989 and then in 1998, and now in \u00a02014 to 2015, I’m not sure this will not happen again. What other experiences could convince our citizens and politicians that Russia is not a safe place? We have to do a lot in this sense and the EU is helping us to put the Association Agreement into practice. The Association Agreement through the financial assistance provided by the EU, is trying to teach us how to trade and how to produce qualitative products in order to be competitive on the EU markets.<\/p>\n

L.G.:<\/b> Why is Russia afraid of signing the Association Agreement by Ukraine and Moldova?<\/p>\n

M.C.:\u00a0<\/b>Russia is losing its markets. Where will it be selling its products if not in Ukraine where there are 45 million consumers?
\nSecondly, Putin’s greatest fear is that together with the beginning of democracy and prosperity in Ukraine, the example given by Ukraine as a modernized and democratic state could be thousands of times more dangerous than any weapon at the border with the Russian Federation. The example of Ukraine could be bewildering to the people in the Russian Federation. That’s actually why Russia is trying so fiercely to destabilize Ukraine. Having a prosperous and democratic Ukraine at its border, the more so that it will not be able to penetrate its market, means the beginning of the end of the Russian Federation.<\/p>\n

L.G.: <\/b>One of the important events of the year was the parliamentary elections from November 30th. Much has been said about the fact that this vote was decisive for Moldova’s European course. How should the Moldovan political class behave so that the European integration process continues and its benefits are felt by the citizens?<\/p>\n

M.C.:\u00a0<\/b>If people enter politics in order to have benefits, we have what we have now. If, however, they enter politics following the state interests it is different. The Czech Republic, Estonia, and Poland for example, did have such responsible politicians. This is really important as not everybody can make politics to the benefit of the society.
\nFor example, in our country people enter politics for profit. And in this case, the politics is not to the benefit of the society and citizens.<\/p>\n

L.G.:\u00a0<\/b>If this rather sad situation described by you perpetuates the European prospects of Moldova will remain unclear. What would have to be changed in the way politics is done? Are there factors of change in Moldova?<\/p>\n

M.C.:\u00a0<\/b>As long as what I said above about the politics which brings benefits to certain people remains valid in Moldova, we will not able to move forward. Things will start changing when our well-trained young people who are abroad now come back and take over the governance, including ministries. It is only when the critical mass of these people come home, that the things will start changing.<\/p>\n

Lina Gr\u00e2u:<\/b>\u00a0<\/b>Do you see the possibility for Moldova to get closer to the EU in 2015? Is a functional government early next year possible ?<\/p>\n

Mihai Cernencu: <\/b>I would like that we have a government by the end of this year but I am not sure this will happen. I would prefer a broader alliance than one of the three parties as this way the social base for the support of the European integration will increase. The government programme must match the Association Agreement. The authorities have to adopt next year over 300 laws which should lead to the harmonization of the Moldovan legislation with that of the EU, which is a very long and complicated process.
\nI wish that at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Riga we achieved what our authorities promised in 2013 – to submit an application for EU membership. There are good relations at the personal level between Leanca and Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission. The meetings and the visit that Donald Tusk, the chairman of the European Council, will pay to Moldova are also very important in this sense.<\/p>\n

But on this way, two inherent conditions \u2013 fighting against corruption and the reforms- are extremely important. The EU will apply the \u201cmore for more\u201d principle -more reforms – more money, fewer reforms – less money. This interdependence between what we do and the EU funding could become fundamental for the politicians, the government, and the Republic of Moldova as a state.
\nThe only solution for the modernization and prosperity of Moldova is the European Union.<\/p>\n

The interview was done by\u00a0Lina Gr\u00e2u, foreign policy expert and programme coordinator of the Foreign Policy Association of Moldova.\u00a0<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n

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