{"id":264604,"date":"2011-11-16T13:42:33","date_gmt":"2011-11-16T13:42:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/new.moldova.org\/2011\/11\/16\/forecasts-confirm-oil-boom-in-azerbaijan-is-approaching-to-end-226593-eng\/"},"modified":"2011-11-16T13:42:33","modified_gmt":"2011-11-16T13:42:33","slug":"forecasts-confirm-oil-boom-in-azerbaijan-is-approaching-to-end-226593-eng","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/forecasts-confirm-oil-boom-in-azerbaijan-is-approaching-to-end-226593-eng\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasts confirm: oil boom in Azerbaijan is approaching to end"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 4<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

CESD\/ Baku — Officials figures and forecasts confirm that oil boom in Azerbaijan is approaching to end: 50 million ton in 2010, 46 million ton in 2011 and 45 million ton in 2012, 32 million ton in 2016. <\/p>\n

Azerbaijan will produce 45 million tons of oil in 2012, Khoshbakht Yusifzada, the state oil company SOCAR’s First Vice-President, told reporters. He said SOCAR will account for 8-8.3 million tons of the total volume of oil to be produced next year, while the rest will be oil extracted from Azerbaijan’s major Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli block of fields in the Caspian Sea and condensate from the offshore Shahdaniz field.<\/p>\n

CESD stated that the latest forecasting confirm that oil boom in Azerbaijan is doomed to end in a few years. Azerbaijan’s high dependence on oil exports poses a potential threat to the economy given the potential volatility in the international oil market. Oil reserves, however, started decreasing in 2011 and last year was pick in oil production. In long term, decreasing of oil output will cause tax revenues decline and budget deficits increase, driving up interest rates.<\/p>\n

In fact, the Azerbaijani economy is dominated by natural resource-based revenues which have risen in spectacular ways in the past few years. However, the non-oil sector of the economy remains undeveloped and fragile. Total public spending grew rapidly rising wage and input costs and heightening inflationary expectations, and underscoring the fragile competitive climate facing economic agents in non-natural resource sectors of the Azeri economy. Petroleum production provides 85 percent of Azerbaijan’s state budget revenues, accounts for 67 percent of the country’s GDP and 93 percent of Azerbaijan’s export. Oil and oil products constituted 92 % of Azerbaijan’s export by results of January-September, according to CESD sources. Only 8 % of export is non-oil products CESD concerned over Azeri export’s reliance on oil revenue since oil continued to dominate in Azerbaijan’s exports accounting for 92 0% of all exports as of October 01 despite efforts to diversify Azerbaijan’s economy away from oil. Center experts mentioned that export of goods made up $21.324bn and import $6.599bn in 2010. It means nonoil sector contribution to Azerbaijani export was $ 1, 7 billion last year which was lower than Georgian export ($ 2, 46 billion). In fact, Azerbaijani non-oil export is 39 % lower than Georgian total export that shows increasing of total export volume of Azerbaijan is not sustainable.<\/p>\n

According to the Harvard International Review calculations Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli filed has 3 billion barrels (of the initial 5 billion) reserve and the end of Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli in the year 2019. Given that 2010 was the peak year of Azeri oil production, the descent begins as of 2011. Of course, the output will not stop immediately, but its reduction by 10 percent a year will be a severe blow.<\/p>\n

CESD assessment model also include tendency of decreasing of oil production in Azerbaijan. State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) produced 50 million ton oil in 2010. SOCAR targets 46 million ton for 2011 which 4 million ton less than last year’s output. Meanwhile, the latest predictions confirm that oil production will be decreased to about 33 million ton in 2015 (see table below). Even with current prices of crude oil in the world market, SOFAZ’s assets will be totally spent within the budget lines if current unbelievable transfers’ level kept. Keeping such fantastic transfers can result in negative consequences because of theatrical cutting of budget expenditure lines due to potential lack of financial resources.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Finance Ministry of Azerbaijan reports that consolidated budget draft of Azerbaijan is made with the forecast of SOFAZ’s revenues at AZN 10.697 billion ($ 13,54 billion) and expenditures at AZN 10.482 billion ($ 13,27 billion). The Ministry reports that the Draft Law says that the oil sector will provide at least AZN 12 billion ($ 15, 28 billion) or 73.2% of revenues and the non-oil sector AZN 4.4 billion ($ 5, 56 billion) or 26.8% next year. Transfer to the State Budget from the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) will reach AZN 9.905 billion ($12.538 billion) or 60.3% of all budget revenues. Figures show that Azerbaijan State Oil Fund’s budget expenditures will be almost equal with revenues in 2012. It means that SOFAZ is not adequately meeting its central objective – preserving oil money for future generations. It seems difficult to protect the money from the consumption appetite. The transfers from SOFAZ to the State Budget have shot up from $ 686 million in 2007 to $ 11, 64 billion in 2011 and a decision has been taken to further raise the transfer to $ 12,538 billion in 2012. It means that amount of transfers from the fund to the state budget is 18 times higher than in 2011 compare with 2007 which is barely credible in the oil countries’ experience in the world.<\/p>\n

CESD calculations show that more than $ 19, 0 billion transferred only last 2 years (2010\/2011) and $31,6 billion are transferred between 2010-2012 years which is more than total of assets of SOFAZ.<\/p>\n

Reminding that The BP-led consortium Azerbaijan International Operation Company (AIOC) highlighted that its Chirag, Azeri and Gunashli (ACG) oilfields in the Caspian Sea produced 19 million tons (140.4 million barrels) of oil in January-June 2011, down 5.9% from the year-earlier level of 20.2 million tons. Additionally, during the first half of 2011, AIOC-operated Shahdaniz gas field produced 3.07 billion cubic meters of gas, down from 3.6 bcm in the same period a year ago. The offshore Shahdaniz field is operated by the British oil giant with a 25.5% share, with the other partners being Statoil ASA, NICO, Total SA, LukAgip, TPAO and Azerbaijani state energy firm SOCAR. On the other hand, ACG oilfields are divided between the operator BP with 35.8% share and Chevron Corp., Inpex, SOCAR, Statoil, ExxonMobil Corporation, TPAO, Itocu and Hess Corporation. BP Azerbaijan intends to produce 51.5 million tons of oil and 28 bcm of gas in 2011 in the region versus 50.83 million tons and 26.2 bcm, respectively, in 2010. Last year, the Shahdaniz field – with estimated reserves of around 1.2 trillion cubic meters – produced about 6.9 bcm of gas, up from 6.2 bcm in 2009. Meanwhile, oil production in Azerbaijan made up 23,8 million tonnes in the first half of 2011. It constituted a drop by 1,445,000 tonnes or 5.6% over the same period of the last year, according to the State Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan. Production made up 4.1m tonnes of crude in January, 3.8m tonnes in February, 4.1m tonnes in March, 3.9m tonnes in April, 4.1m tonnes in May and 3.88m tonnes in June.
\n—
\nThe Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD<\/a>) is a think tank in Baku, Azerbaijan. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reading Time: <\/span> 4<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>Officials figures and forecasts confirm that oil boom is approaching to end; 50 million ton in 2010, 46 million ton in 2011 and 45 million ton in 2012, 32 million ton in 2016.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":264603,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-264604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy"],"content_social_share":"Reading Time: <\/span> 4<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

CESD\/ Baku — Officials figures and forecasts confirm that oil boom in Azerbaijan is approaching to end: 50 million ton in 2010, 46 million ton in 2011 and 45 million ton in 2012, 32 million ton in 2016. <\/p>\n

Azerbaijan will produce 45 million tons of oil in 2012, Khoshbakht Yusifzada, the state oil company SOCAR’s First Vice-President, told reporters. He said SOCAR will account for 8-8.3 million tons of the total volume of oil to be produced next year, while the rest will be oil extracted from Azerbaijan’s major Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli block of fields in the Caspian Sea and condensate from the offshore Shahdaniz field.<\/p>\n

CESD stated that the latest forecasting confirm that oil boom in Azerbaijan is doomed to end in a few years. Azerbaijan’s high dependence on oil exports poses a potential threat to the economy given the potential volatility in the international oil market. Oil reserves, however, started decreasing in 2011 and last year was pick in oil production. In long term, decreasing of oil output will cause tax revenues decline and budget deficits increase, driving up interest rates.<\/p>\n

In fact, the Azerbaijani economy is dominated by natural resource-based revenues which have risen in spectacular ways in the past few years. However, the non-oil sector of the economy remains undeveloped and fragile. Total public spending grew rapidly rising wage and input costs and heightening inflationary expectations, and underscoring the fragile competitive climate facing economic agents in non-natural resource sectors of the Azeri economy. Petroleum production provides 85 percent of Azerbaijan’s state budget revenues, accounts for 67 percent of the country’s GDP and 93 percent of Azerbaijan’s export. Oil and oil products constituted 92 % of Azerbaijan’s export by results of January-September, according to CESD sources. Only 8 % of export is non-oil products CESD concerned over Azeri export’s reliance on oil revenue since oil continued to dominate in Azerbaijan’s exports accounting for 92 0% of all exports as of October 01 despite efforts to diversify Azerbaijan’s economy away from oil. Center experts mentioned that export of goods made up $21.324bn and import $6.599bn in 2010. It means nonoil sector contribution to Azerbaijani export was $ 1, 7 billion last year which was lower than Georgian export ($ 2, 46 billion). In fact, Azerbaijani non-oil export is 39 % lower than Georgian total export that shows increasing of total export volume of Azerbaijan is not sustainable.<\/p>\n

According to the Harvard International Review calculations Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli filed has 3 billion barrels (of the initial 5 billion) reserve and the end of Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli in the year 2019. Given that 2010 was the peak year of Azeri oil production, the descent begins as of 2011. Of course, the output will not stop immediately, but its reduction by 10 percent a year will be a severe blow.<\/p>\n

CESD assessment model also include tendency of decreasing of oil production in Azerbaijan. State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) produced 50 million ton oil in 2010. SOCAR targets 46 million ton for 2011 which 4 million ton less than last year’s output. Meanwhile, the latest predictions confirm that oil production will be decreased to about 33 million ton in 2015 (see table below). Even with current prices of crude oil in the world market, SOFAZ’s assets will be totally spent within the budget lines if current unbelievable transfers’ level kept. Keeping such fantastic transfers can result in negative consequences because of theatrical cutting of budget expenditure lines due to potential lack of financial resources.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Finance Ministry of Azerbaijan reports that consolidated budget draft of Azerbaijan is made with the forecast of SOFAZ’s revenues at AZN 10.697 billion ($ 13,54 billion) and expenditures at AZN 10.482 billion ($ 13,27 billion). The Ministry reports that the Draft Law says that the oil sector will provide at least AZN 12 billion ($ 15, 28 billion) or 73.2% of revenues and the non-oil sector AZN 4.4 billion ($ 5, 56 billion) or 26.8% next year. Transfer to the State Budget from the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) will reach AZN 9.905 billion ($12.538 billion) or 60.3% of all budget revenues. Figures show that Azerbaijan State Oil Fund’s budget expenditures will be almost equal with revenues in 2012. It means that SOFAZ is not adequately meeting its central objective – preserving oil money for future generations. It seems difficult to protect the money from the consumption appetite. The transfers from SOFAZ to the State Budget have shot up from $ 686 million in 2007 to $ 11, 64 billion in 2011 and a decision has been taken to further raise the transfer to $ 12,538 billion in 2012. It means that amount of transfers from the fund to the state budget is 18 times higher than in 2011 compare with 2007 which is barely credible in the oil countries’ experience in the world.<\/p>\n

CESD calculations show that more than $ 19, 0 billion transferred only last 2 years (2010\/2011) and $31,6 billion are transferred between 2010-2012 years which is more than total of assets of SOFAZ.<\/p>\n

Reminding that The BP-led consortium Azerbaijan International Operation Company (AIOC) highlighted that its Chirag, Azeri and Gunashli (ACG) oilfields in the Caspian Sea produced 19 million tons (140.4 million barrels) of oil in January-June 2011, down 5.9% from the year-earlier level of 20.2 million tons. Additionally, during the first half of 2011, AIOC-operated Shahdaniz gas field produced 3.07 billion cubic meters of gas, down from 3.6 bcm in the same period a year ago. The offshore Shahdaniz field is operated by the British oil giant with a 25.5% share, with the other partners being Statoil ASA, NICO, Total SA, LukAgip, TPAO and Azerbaijani state energy firm SOCAR. On the other hand, ACG oilfields are divided between the operator BP with 35.8% share and Chevron Corp., Inpex, SOCAR, Statoil, ExxonMobil Corporation, TPAO, Itocu and Hess Corporation. BP Azerbaijan intends to produce 51.5 million tons of oil and 28 bcm of gas in 2011 in the region versus 50.83 million tons and 26.2 bcm, respectively, in 2010. Last year, the Shahdaniz field – with estimated reserves of around 1.2 trillion cubic meters – produced about 6.9 bcm of gas, up from 6.2 bcm in 2009. Meanwhile, oil production in Azerbaijan made up 23,8 million tonnes in the first half of 2011. It constituted a drop by 1,445,000 tonnes or 5.6% over the same period of the last year, according to the State Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan. Production made up 4.1m tonnes of crude in January, 3.8m tonnes in February, 4.1m tonnes in March, 3.9m tonnes in April, 4.1m tonnes in May and 3.88m tonnes in June.
\n—
\nThe Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD<\/a>) is a think tank in Baku, Azerbaijan. <\/em><\/p>\n

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