{"id":160411,"date":"2010-02-01T22:11:46","date_gmt":"2010-02-01T22:11:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/new.moldova.org\/2010\/02\/01\/ukraine-the-neighbor-and-the-neighborhood-205816-eng\/"},"modified":"2010-02-01T22:11:46","modified_gmt":"2010-02-01T22:11:46","slug":"ukraine-the-neighbor-and-the-neighborhood-205816-eng","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/ukraine-the-neighbor-and-the-neighborhood-205816-eng\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine \u2013 the Neighbor and the Neighborhood"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 3<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

By Edward Lucas<\/em>, CEPA Senior Fellow <\/em><\/p>\n

Why does Ukraine’s presidential election matter for the United States and Central Europe? <\/strong><\/p>\n

No blatant fraud. Diverse mass media. An election result that is not predetermined. Leading candidates who support markets, political freedom, the rule of law and integration with Europe. Power set to pass peacefully from loser to winner. By ex-Soviet standards, Ukraine’s presidential election seems like a breath of fresh air.
\nYet Ukraine’s Western friends and neighbors look on the past four years as a time of almost unremitting disappointment, with little chance of improvement. Ukraine is a morass of economic failure, cronyism and decline. Those who have spent time and energy trying to help feel their efforts have been wasted.<\/p>\n

For the United States and Central Europe, Ukraine matters for three reasons. From a purely practical point of view, it is the most important transit country. Just over three-quarters of Europe’s gas imports from Russia go through Ukraine. It is a nightmare journey in both a physical and political sense. The pipes and compressors are at the end of their design life – and have been ill-maintained to boot. When outsiders rightly lambast Russia for neglecting its oil and gas infrastructure, they save some invective for similar mismanagement in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Worse, corrupt feuds between Russian and Ukrainian energy tycoons have resulted in furious annual rows. Russia says Ukraine does not pay its bills and steals gas. Ukraine accuses Russia of blackmail. Both sides are to blame. (When did you last hear of, say, the Netherlands and Germany having a similar argument?) But the price, in uncertainty and disruption, is paid by innocent customers in Slovakia, Hungary, Poland and Croatia.<\/p>\n

That has strengthened the case for Nord Stream, the Russian-German pipeline on the Baltic seabed and South Stream, a Russian-backed Black Sea pipeline. Ukraine’s unreliability has made it much easier for Russia to argue the case for the northern and southern bypasses, which weaken all of Eastern Europe’s energy security.<\/p>\n

Secondly, if Ukraine is a political and economic success story, then it is harder for Russia’s ex-KGB rulers to argue that their brand of authoritarian crony capitalism is the only practical way of running a big ex-Soviet country. If Ukraine is a failure, then the Kremlin’s approach looks vindicated.<\/p>\n

Here the results are mixed. Few Russians would wish to import Ukraine’s politicians, or its behemoth bureaucracy. But other things look rather attractive. Ukraine has no political prisoners. Nobody gets locked up in a psychiatric hospital for annoying the authorities. Journalists get sued, not murdered. The discussion of history is not a crime. Busybodies and do-gooders can pursue their favorite causes. Nothing in Ukrainian political life resembles the Kremlin’s “party of power,” United Russia.<\/p>\n

The third reason Ukraine matters is geopolitical. If Ukraine can integrate with the European Union (EU) and NATO, then it tips the balance against Russia’s revisionist policies in the former Soviet empire. President Dmitry Medvedev’s talk of a “sphere of privileged interests” will sound silly rather than sinister.<\/p>\n

Both sides are to blame for failure here. It was the EU that failed to grasp the opportunity presented by the Orange Revolution. It was NATO that botched the 2007 summit in Bucharest. Under President George W. Bush, America pushed for a Membership Action Plan (MAP) for Ukraine and Georgia far too late and with too little preparation. That left NATO humiliatingly divided. A slower and more deliberate strategy, focusing on nitty-gritty improvements rather than a controversial label, would have been more likely to succeed – and more suitable to Ukraine’s needs.<\/p>\n

Ukrainian politicians are indeed corrupt, erratic and blinkered. But the outside world has consistently based its policy on hopes rather than reality. Put bluntly, Ukraine is not just a larger version of Poland. It is more divided internally; its political class is weaker; its structural problems are much greater. It needs more time to escape its tormented past.<\/p>\n

Whether it is the dodgy Viktor Yanukovych or the temperamental Yulia Tymoshenko who wins the presidential election on February 7, the outside world will have to respond with firmness and patience towards Ukraine’s rulers, tempered with generosity towards the Ukrainians themselves. The billions spent on propping up public finances in recent years have been, in effect, a subsidy to the feckless political class – and an ill-spent one.<\/p>\n

It would be more productive to use the money elsewhere. A good example comes from Tbilisi, where Georgian authorities have opened a landmark House of Europe, hosting exhibitions, lectures and events to boost the public’s exposure to European culture and ideas. As the EU sets up its own multi-billion euro “External Action Service,” it could do a lot worse than use a sliver of the budget to set up similar institutions in every city in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

—
\nEdward Lucas is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and Senior Editor at The Economist.<\/em> The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Center for European Policy Analysis. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reading Time: <\/span> 3<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>Why does Ukraine\u2019s presidential election matter for the United States and Central Europe?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-160411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"content_social_share":"Reading Time: <\/span> 3<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

By Edward Lucas<\/em>, CEPA Senior Fellow <\/em><\/p>\n

Why does Ukraine’s presidential election matter for the United States and Central Europe? <\/strong><\/p>\n

No blatant fraud. Diverse mass media. An election result that is not predetermined. Leading candidates who support markets, political freedom, the rule of law and integration with Europe. Power set to pass peacefully from loser to winner. By ex-Soviet standards, Ukraine’s presidential election seems like a breath of fresh air.
\nYet Ukraine’s Western friends and neighbors look on the past four years as a time of almost unremitting disappointment, with little chance of improvement. Ukraine is a morass of economic failure, cronyism and decline. Those who have spent time and energy trying to help feel their efforts have been wasted.<\/p>\n

For the United States and Central Europe, Ukraine matters for three reasons. From a purely practical point of view, it is the most important transit country. Just over three-quarters of Europe’s gas imports from Russia go through Ukraine. It is a nightmare journey in both a physical and political sense. The pipes and compressors are at the end of their design life – and have been ill-maintained to boot. When outsiders rightly lambast Russia for neglecting its oil and gas infrastructure, they save some invective for similar mismanagement in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Worse, corrupt feuds between Russian and Ukrainian energy tycoons have resulted in furious annual rows. Russia says Ukraine does not pay its bills and steals gas. Ukraine accuses Russia of blackmail. Both sides are to blame. (When did you last hear of, say, the Netherlands and Germany having a similar argument?) But the price, in uncertainty and disruption, is paid by innocent customers in Slovakia, Hungary, Poland and Croatia.<\/p>\n

That has strengthened the case for Nord Stream, the Russian-German pipeline on the Baltic seabed and South Stream, a Russian-backed Black Sea pipeline. Ukraine’s unreliability has made it much easier for Russia to argue the case for the northern and southern bypasses, which weaken all of Eastern Europe’s energy security.<\/p>\n

Secondly, if Ukraine is a political and economic success story, then it is harder for Russia’s ex-KGB rulers to argue that their brand of authoritarian crony capitalism is the only practical way of running a big ex-Soviet country. If Ukraine is a failure, then the Kremlin’s approach looks vindicated.<\/p>\n

Here the results are mixed. Few Russians would wish to import Ukraine’s politicians, or its behemoth bureaucracy. But other things look rather attractive. Ukraine has no political prisoners. Nobody gets locked up in a psychiatric hospital for annoying the authorities. Journalists get sued, not murdered. The discussion of history is not a crime. Busybodies and do-gooders can pursue their favorite causes. Nothing in Ukrainian political life resembles the Kremlin’s “party of power,” United Russia.<\/p>\n

The third reason Ukraine matters is geopolitical. If Ukraine can integrate with the European Union (EU) and NATO, then it tips the balance against Russia’s revisionist policies in the former Soviet empire. President Dmitry Medvedev’s talk of a “sphere of privileged interests” will sound silly rather than sinister.<\/p>\n

Both sides are to blame for failure here. It was the EU that failed to grasp the opportunity presented by the Orange Revolution. It was NATO that botched the 2007 summit in Bucharest. Under President George W. Bush, America pushed for a Membership Action Plan (MAP) for Ukraine and Georgia far too late and with too little preparation. That left NATO humiliatingly divided. A slower and more deliberate strategy, focusing on nitty-gritty improvements rather than a controversial label, would have been more likely to succeed – and more suitable to Ukraine’s needs.<\/p>\n

Ukrainian politicians are indeed corrupt, erratic and blinkered. But the outside world has consistently based its policy on hopes rather than reality. Put bluntly, Ukraine is not just a larger version of Poland. It is more divided internally; its political class is weaker; its structural problems are much greater. It needs more time to escape its tormented past.<\/p>\n

Whether it is the dodgy Viktor Yanukovych or the temperamental Yulia Tymoshenko who wins the presidential election on February 7, the outside world will have to respond with firmness and patience towards Ukraine’s rulers, tempered with generosity towards the Ukrainians themselves. The billions spent on propping up public finances in recent years have been, in effect, a subsidy to the feckless political class – and an ill-spent one.<\/p>\n

It would be more productive to use the money elsewhere. A good example comes from Tbilisi, where Georgian authorities have opened a landmark House of Europe, hosting exhibitions, lectures and events to boost the public’s exposure to European culture and ideas. As the EU sets up its own multi-billion euro “External Action Service,” it could do a lot worse than use a sliver of the budget to set up similar institutions in every city in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

—
\nEdward Lucas is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and Senior Editor at The Economist.<\/em> The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Center for European Policy Analysis. <\/em><\/p>\n

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