{"id":159396,"date":"2009-09-16T10:45:15","date_gmt":"2009-09-16T10:45:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/new.moldova.org\/2009\/09\/16\/moldovan-communist-soft-liners-options-a-prisoners-dilemma-203592-eng\/"},"modified":"2009-09-16T10:45:15","modified_gmt":"2009-09-16T10:45:15","slug":"moldovan-communist-soft-liners-options-a-prisoners-dilemma-203592-eng","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/moldovan-communist-soft-liners-options-a-prisoners-dilemma-203592-eng\/","title":{"rendered":"Moldovan communist soft-liners options \u2013 a “Prisoner\u2019s Dilemma”"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 4<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

By Dinu Popa<\/em><\/p>\n

In 2009 Moldova had its share of political upheavals. In April people from Chisinau got on the streets of the capital to protest the fraudulent elections. A string of violent riots followed. With the building of the Parliament and the Presidency set on fire by rioters, a bitter dispute started between the Communist Party and the democratic opposition, both sides insisting that the opposing party caused the destruction. To prove their point Communists arrested around 500 young people. Many of them had been severely beaten in detention. Some women had been raped and humiliated by police officers. A number of political and business leaders had been arrested on false pretext. <\/p>\n

These days Moldova is facing yet another political showdown. After the opposition caused, this spring, repeated elections by refusing to vote for the president now its communists’ turn to decide if they want to vote for the president or walk out of the Parliament and cause another round of Parliamentary elections. The Alliance for the European Integration (AEI), a coalition of four non-communist, pro-western leaning parties, has enough votes to elect a speaker of the Parliament, but not enough to elect a new president. According to the Moldovan Constitution, if the president is not elected, new Parliamentary elections have to be held next year.<\/p>\n

Although the situation in Moldova seems very confusing, I believe there is a way to reliably analyze and predict some of the outcomes of the political struggle in Chisinau. This can be done by using a game theory model with prison sentence payoffs, called Prisoner’s Dilemma<\/a>, originally created by Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher working at RAND (USA) in 1950 and later formalized by Albert W. Tucker. <\/p>\n

Here is how this theoretical dilemma is relevant to the events in Moldova. The main source of the confusion in Chisinau right now is the Communist Party of the Republic of Moldova’s (CPRM) decisions and actions. The questions on everybody’s mind in Moldova now are: What is CPRM going to do? Will its members vote for the new president or will they gamble on starting repeated parliamentary elections?<\/p>\n

Although the CPRM’s methods remain secretive and its decision making process is opaque, it became clear recently that the Communist Party in Moldova is not a monolithic structure. It seems to have broken into two rival factions – the soft-line reformers and the hard-liners. <\/p>\n

The hard-line faction’s leader is Moldova’s ex-president Vladimir Voronin. Among the members of this team are Ivan Kalin, Vladimir Mishin, and other old school soviet nomenclature, mostly Russian-speaking communists.
\nThe soft-liners so far eluded publicity, but they seem to be loyal to Marian Lupu, a recent defector from the CPRM and the new leader of the Democratic Party, which became part of the new political coalition AEI. The rumor is that there are at least 12 from the CPRM faction in the Moldovan Parliament, holding together a quarter of the total of 48 communist votes, that are not so loyal to Voronin as hard-liners are. Many of these soft-liners, interestingly, are not party members. They held positions of ministers in the Communist-backed governments between 2001 and 2009 or they are defectors from other parties, as is the case of Eduard Musuc, a former leader of Social Democratic Party. The confrontation behind the scenes already started. Soft-liners made their presence felt by releasing this month, to everybody’s surprise, a press announcement about Voronin’s resignation to a number of press agencies and forcing him to bow to their will. Voronin called them traitors and blood-sucking leeches and promised to weed them out of the CPRM.<\/p>\n

In a way the two factions’ options are similar to those in the Prisoner’s Dilemma. <\/p>\n

The hard-liners’ options are limited – they can convince the soft-liners to cooperate and stall the transition of power, or they lose any influence and have to answer for all the suffering they’ve inflicted on the people of Moldova during the last eight years. <\/p>\n

With hard-liners position clear, the ball is entirely in the reformer’s court. If they decide to cooperate with the AEI and elect Marian Lupu president of Moldova, they may enjoy a number of benefits, including access to power or, at least, immunity from prosecution for the alleged illegalities they committed. If they cooperate with the hard-liners and insist on repeating the parliamentary elections, they may have a chance to regain power in Moldova and maintain the status quo for a few more years. And if they decide to do nothing they risk losing all – get punished by their hard-liners associates now, and by the AEI later.<\/p>\n

The reformer’s decision, however, is greatly simplified by a few known facts – it’s clear that hard-liners will not cooperate with the AEI, so there is no danger for the two teams to betray each other and end up with a lousy deal. Also, supporting the AEI is, by far, a better moral decision than supporting the other communist faction, because of all the crimes and corruption that are part of the hard-liners’ arsenal, methods that brought Moldova to its knees.
\nThere is also the factor of punishments that hard-liners are likely to use in order to maintain the party discipline. This, however, is a double edged sword, as it may become an additional motivation for the soft-liners to support the AEI, and, by doing so, to undermine the hard-liners’ leverage in law-enforcement and intelligence bodies, such as Ministry of Interior, Prosecutor’s office, and the State Information Service.<\/p>\n

My hope is that the communist soft-liners will carefully examine their options and will make the only correct decision in this case – help the Alliance for European integration elect a president and, by doing that, help Moldova to move forward with reforms and solve their “Prisoner’s Dilemma.”
\n—
\nDinu Popa is an independent analyst, resident of Dallas, TX, working for a telecommunication company. He holds a master’s degree in Communication Studies from the California State University. He immigrated to the United States from the Republic of Moldova. <\/em><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reading Time: <\/span> 4<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>Although the situation in Moldova seems very confusing, I believe there is a way to reliably analyze and predict some of the outcomes of the political struggle in Chisinau. This can be done by using a game theory model with prison sentence payoffs, called Prisoner\u2019s Dilemma, originally created by Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher working at RAND (USA) in 1950 and later formalized by Albert W. Tucker.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":159394,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-159396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"content_social_share":"Reading Time: <\/span> 4<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

By Dinu Popa<\/em><\/p>\n

In 2009 Moldova had its share of political upheavals. In April people from Chisinau got on the streets of the capital to protest the fraudulent elections. A string of violent riots followed. With the building of the Parliament and the Presidency set on fire by rioters, a bitter dispute started between the Communist Party and the democratic opposition, both sides insisting that the opposing party caused the destruction. To prove their point Communists arrested around 500 young people. Many of them had been severely beaten in detention. Some women had been raped and humiliated by police officers. A number of political and business leaders had been arrested on false pretext. <\/p>\n

These days Moldova is facing yet another political showdown. After the opposition caused, this spring, repeated elections by refusing to vote for the president now its communists’ turn to decide if they want to vote for the president or walk out of the Parliament and cause another round of Parliamentary elections. The Alliance for the European Integration (AEI), a coalition of four non-communist, pro-western leaning parties, has enough votes to elect a speaker of the Parliament, but not enough to elect a new president. According to the Moldovan Constitution, if the president is not elected, new Parliamentary elections have to be held next year.<\/p>\n

Although the situation in Moldova seems very confusing, I believe there is a way to reliably analyze and predict some of the outcomes of the political struggle in Chisinau. This can be done by using a game theory model with prison sentence payoffs, called Prisoner’s Dilemma<\/a>, originally created by Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher working at RAND (USA) in 1950 and later formalized by Albert W. Tucker. <\/p>\n

Here is how this theoretical dilemma is relevant to the events in Moldova. The main source of the confusion in Chisinau right now is the Communist Party of the Republic of Moldova’s (CPRM) decisions and actions. The questions on everybody’s mind in Moldova now are: What is CPRM going to do? Will its members vote for the new president or will they gamble on starting repeated parliamentary elections?<\/p>\n

Although the CPRM’s methods remain secretive and its decision making process is opaque, it became clear recently that the Communist Party in Moldova is not a monolithic structure. It seems to have broken into two rival factions – the soft-line reformers and the hard-liners. <\/p>\n

The hard-line faction’s leader is Moldova’s ex-president Vladimir Voronin. Among the members of this team are Ivan Kalin, Vladimir Mishin, and other old school soviet nomenclature, mostly Russian-speaking communists.
\nThe soft-liners so far eluded publicity, but they seem to be loyal to Marian Lupu, a recent defector from the CPRM and the new leader of the Democratic Party, which became part of the new political coalition AEI. The rumor is that there are at least 12 from the CPRM faction in the Moldovan Parliament, holding together a quarter of the total of 48 communist votes, that are not so loyal to Voronin as hard-liners are. Many of these soft-liners, interestingly, are not party members. They held positions of ministers in the Communist-backed governments between 2001 and 2009 or they are defectors from other parties, as is the case of Eduard Musuc, a former leader of Social Democratic Party. The confrontation behind the scenes already started. Soft-liners made their presence felt by releasing this month, to everybody’s surprise, a press announcement about Voronin’s resignation to a number of press agencies and forcing him to bow to their will. Voronin called them traitors and blood-sucking leeches and promised to weed them out of the CPRM.<\/p>\n

In a way the two factions’ options are similar to those in the Prisoner’s Dilemma. <\/p>\n

The hard-liners’ options are limited – they can convince the soft-liners to cooperate and stall the transition of power, or they lose any influence and have to answer for all the suffering they’ve inflicted on the people of Moldova during the last eight years. <\/p>\n

With hard-liners position clear, the ball is entirely in the reformer’s court. If they decide to cooperate with the AEI and elect Marian Lupu president of Moldova, they may enjoy a number of benefits, including access to power or, at least, immunity from prosecution for the alleged illegalities they committed. If they cooperate with the hard-liners and insist on repeating the parliamentary elections, they may have a chance to regain power in Moldova and maintain the status quo for a few more years. And if they decide to do nothing they risk losing all – get punished by their hard-liners associates now, and by the AEI later.<\/p>\n

The reformer’s decision, however, is greatly simplified by a few known facts – it’s clear that hard-liners will not cooperate with the AEI, so there is no danger for the two teams to betray each other and end up with a lousy deal. Also, supporting the AEI is, by far, a better moral decision than supporting the other communist faction, because of all the crimes and corruption that are part of the hard-liners’ arsenal, methods that brought Moldova to its knees.
\nThere is also the factor of punishments that hard-liners are likely to use in order to maintain the party discipline. This, however, is a double edged sword, as it may become an additional motivation for the soft-liners to support the AEI, and, by doing so, to undermine the hard-liners’ leverage in law-enforcement and intelligence bodies, such as Ministry of Interior, Prosecutor’s office, and the State Information Service.<\/p>\n

My hope is that the communist soft-liners will carefully examine their options and will make the only correct decision in this case – help the Alliance for European integration elect a president and, by doing that, help Moldova to move forward with reforms and solve their “Prisoner’s Dilemma.”
\n—
\nDinu Popa is an independent analyst, resident of Dallas, TX, working for a telecommunication company. He holds a master’s degree in Communication Studies from the California State University. He immigrated to the United States from the Republic of Moldova. <\/em><\/p>\n\n

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