{"id":157802,"date":"2009-06-04T14:38:42","date_gmt":"2009-06-04T14:38:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/new.moldova.org\/2009\/06\/04\/kommersant-who-should-russia-back-in-moldova-201189-eng\/"},"modified":"2009-06-04T14:38:42","modified_gmt":"2009-06-04T14:38:42","slug":"kommersant-who-should-russia-back-in-moldova-201189-eng","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/kommersant-who-should-russia-back-in-moldova-201189-eng\/","title":{"rendered":"Kommersant: Who should Russia back in Moldova?"},"content":{"rendered":"<span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading Time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 2<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minutes<\/span><\/span><p>By Dmitry Oreshkin <\/p>\n<p><strong>The latest political developments in Moldova indicate how weak and insecure President Vladimir Voronin really is<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>That the Moldovan Communist Party failed to get the so called Golden Vote from the opposition is an indication of how weak President Vladimir Voronin is and how insecure his reign. His threats were ignored, promises of a political compromise all but sneered at. Let&#8217;s be pragmatic about it. Whatever principles the Moldovan opposition adheres to had nothing to do with its obstinacy. The opposition was motivated by cold reasoning and analysis. It behaved in the manner it did because of the certainty that it is a political corpse that has been alternating threats with promises.<\/p>\n<p>And what shall Russia do? There is the simple logic of the runaway Trans-Dniester region: the Kremlin should dismiss Moldova as lost forever and focus its parental feelings on the only faithful son, Trans-Dniester leader Igor Smirnov. By way of showing its affection, the Kremlin ought to recognize sovereignty of the self-proclaimed Trans-Dniester Moldovan Republic. There are, however, certain nuances Tiraspol sadly fails to acknowledge. It is the Trans-Dniester region with its leadership that is a notoriously chronic non-payer to Russia for its gas.<\/p>\n<p>Some observers believe that a message is being sent to Moscow, a message to the effect that the Kremlin had better pay better attention to Smirnov&#8217;s needs if it does not want any problems with gas transit to South Europe. Unfortunately, too much an emphasis on the Trans-Dniester region will create for Russia analogous problems with Moldova on the right-hand bank of the Dniester. In other words, Russia will need working contacts with Kishinev whoever ends up on the pinnacle of political power there.<\/p>\n<p>In the meantime, the opposition will probably emerge even stronger from the next snap election. This election will be closely monitored by the European Union, so that the use of the Soviet practice of bulletin counting is ruled out. Besides, the economic crisis (the one which is impossible in prosperous Moldova, judging by the reckless statements of its Communist leaders) affects Moldova more and more seriously. Last but not the least, the people is fed up. It is as simple as that.<\/p>\n<p>The truth is simple too. Voronin&#8217;s determination to maintain a precarious balance between Russia and Europe (the old axiom about a friendly calf who sucks two mothers) resulted in a situation where authoritarian methods stopped functioning. Facing a similar predicament, Lukashenko, Kokoity, or Smirnov would have accused the parliament of subversive activities, locked up opposition leaders, and thrown away the keys. Moldova cannot afford it: disgusted Europe will immediately turn its back on Kishinev, national economy will wither without modernization, and the ruling regime will find itself depending on export of raw materials (Russian ones, in this particular case). Voronin is trying to keep up appearances at least formally. He has to put up with a stalled authoritarian model in politics and with the humiliating risk to lose the election.<\/p>\n<p>Moldova is the fourth lesson after Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus fate is giving Russia. Russia backs the wrong people. It fears wrong things. And it struggles to attain wrong objectives.<\/p>\n<p>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading Time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 2<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minutes<\/span><\/span>That the Moldovan Communist Party failed to get the so called Golden Vote from the opposition is an indication of how weak President Vladimir Voronin is and how insecure his reign.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-157802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"content_social_share":"<span class=\"span-reading-time rt-reading-time\" style=\"display: block;\"><span class=\"rt-label rt-prefix\">Reading Time: <\/span> <span class=\"rt-time\"> 2<\/span> <span class=\"rt-label rt-postfix\">minutes<\/span><\/span><p>By Dmitry Oreshkin <\/p>\n<p><strong>The latest political developments in Moldova indicate how weak and insecure President Vladimir Voronin really is<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>That the Moldovan Communist Party failed to get the so called Golden Vote from the opposition is an indication of how weak President Vladimir Voronin is and how insecure his reign. His threats were ignored, promises of a political compromise all but sneered at. Let&#8217;s be pragmatic about it. Whatever principles the Moldovan opposition adheres to had nothing to do with its obstinacy. The opposition was motivated by cold reasoning and analysis. It behaved in the manner it did because of the certainty that it is a political corpse that has been alternating threats with promises.<\/p>\n<p>And what shall Russia do? There is the simple logic of the runaway Trans-Dniester region: the Kremlin should dismiss Moldova as lost forever and focus its parental feelings on the only faithful son, Trans-Dniester leader Igor Smirnov. By way of showing its affection, the Kremlin ought to recognize sovereignty of the self-proclaimed Trans-Dniester Moldovan Republic. There are, however, certain nuances Tiraspol sadly fails to acknowledge. It is the Trans-Dniester region with its leadership that is a notoriously chronic non-payer to Russia for its gas.<\/p>\n<p>Some observers believe that a message is being sent to Moscow, a message to the effect that the Kremlin had better pay better attention to Smirnov&#8217;s needs if it does not want any problems with gas transit to South Europe. Unfortunately, too much an emphasis on the Trans-Dniester region will create for Russia analogous problems with Moldova on the right-hand bank of the Dniester. In other words, Russia will need working contacts with Kishinev whoever ends up on the pinnacle of political power there.<\/p>\n<p>In the meantime, the opposition will probably emerge even stronger from the next snap election. This election will be closely monitored by the European Union, so that the use of the Soviet practice of bulletin counting is ruled out. Besides, the economic crisis (the one which is impossible in prosperous Moldova, judging by the reckless statements of its Communist leaders) affects Moldova more and more seriously. Last but not the least, the people is fed up. It is as simple as that.<\/p>\n<p>The truth is simple too. Voronin&#8217;s determination to maintain a precarious balance between Russia and Europe (the old axiom about a friendly calf who sucks two mothers) resulted in a situation where authoritarian methods stopped functioning. Facing a similar predicament, Lukashenko, Kokoity, or Smirnov would have accused the parliament of subversive activities, locked up opposition leaders, and thrown away the keys. Moldova cannot afford it: disgusted Europe will immediately turn its back on Kishinev, national economy will wither without modernization, and the ruling regime will find itself depending on export of raw materials (Russian ones, in this particular case). Voronin is trying to keep up appearances at least formally. He has to put up with a stalled authoritarian model in politics and with the humiliating risk to lose the election.<\/p>\n<p>Moldova is the fourth lesson after Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus fate is giving Russia. Russia backs the wrong people. It fears wrong things. 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