{"id":106723,"date":"2007-08-13T17:18:00","date_gmt":"2007-08-13T17:18:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/new.moldova.org\/2007\/08\/13\/analysis-a-chance-for-the-opposition-66182-eng\/"},"modified":"2007-08-13T17:18:00","modified_gmt":"2007-08-13T17:18:00","slug":"analysis-a-chance-for-the-opposition-66182-eng","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/analysis-a-chance-for-the-opposition-66182-eng\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: A chance for the opposition"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 5<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

Author: Anatol Golea, Infotag<\/p>\n

The outcome of the 3 and 17 June local elections, that came as a surprise especially in Chisinau, has triggered political commentaries and debates during the current inter-season political period. With politicians being on holidays, political analysts are trying to discover the secret of success of young Liberal Dorin Chirtoaca and understand why the rating of the ruling Party of Communists is falling. They are seeking to forecast the further actions of the opposition, as it is for the first time since 2001 that it stands real chances of struggling for power. They are also trying to predict the actions of Communists who are not eager to give up power. <\/p>\n

Touching upon the Chisinau mayoral election, it is worth mentioning that the winner had nothing but enthusiasm, while the defeated communist candidate had unlimited financial and administrative resources as well as the backing of the ruling party and President Vladimir Voronin. <\/p>\n

Dorin Chirtoaca’s success can be regarded as the “peak of triumph” of the Liberal Party and its leader, Mihai Ghimpu, who has been persistently participating in the fight for power since the 1994 elections, when the Reform Party was set up. At the time, the project turned out to be a failure, with the founders and leaders of that party leaving politics for business. As to the political brand, they left it as a gift to Mihai Ghimpu, who has unsuccessfully tried to promote it. A deputy in the first Moldovan parliament, Ghimpu has never again managed to enter the lawmaking body despite huge efforts. <\/p>\n

After repeated failures during various pre-election struggles, Mihai Ghimpu turned out to be the most agile when appropriating – absolutely for free and on legal basis – the brand of “Liberal party” that Liberals of former President Mircea Snegur and of the new opposition leader Serafim Urechean had given up in the wake of struggles. Yet, Ghimpu quickly realized that the name of “Liberal party” has both tradition and doctrine, and opens up quite wide prospects. It is difficult to say whether precisely this name laid the foundation for his party’s success at the latest mayoral election in Chisinau. Undoubtedly, a successful project of the wise through political experience uncle became his nephew – Dorin Chirtoaca. <\/p>\n

He has actively promoted himself, set tasks and fulfilled them consistently. Chirtoaca participated in the 2005 mayoral elections and even came second in the runoff (which was invalidated because of low turnout); as ordinary citizen, he used to attend city hall meetings giving rise to minor scandals against the then acting mayor, Vasile Ursu. To put it otherwise, he made himself known and despite his youth and complete lack of management experience, voters saw him as an alternative to the current authorities. His pro-European position and the fact that he has been involved in no corrupt scandals so far has also played an important role. <\/p>\n

In addition, he had real good luck with his main challenger, Veaceslav Iordan. An irrelevant and muffled politician, a narrow-minded manager and an insignificant orator with absolutely no charisma – all these helped the energetic Chirtoaca. <\/p>\n

It might be that Iordan is quite a nice person, but his spin doctors failed to show this to voters. PR-technologists are still to study Iordan’s ambiguous election campaign, which was worked out under the assistance of Romanian image-makers. <\/p>\n

Many reckon that Communists made a mistake when they unexpectedly relieved Vasile Ursu from the office of Chisinau acting mayor and appointing their candidate, Veaceslav Iordan, to this position. Analysts are saying that Ursu would have easily won the election from the very first round. It is impossible to prove that and it is pointless to guess. It is known that there is no use in shaking your fist after a fight, let alone after an election. President Vladimir Voronin himself has said at a recent news conference that “all are wise after the event”. <\/p>\n

Public opinion polls are also hardly reliable, as they are highly irrelevant in Moldova and as a rule seek to form the public opinion rather than to study it. Besides, they form it quite unsuccessfully as well. For instance, a few weeks before the June elections, the most authoritarian poll, Public Opinion Barometer, put Iordan much ahead the other contenders. After the election, the survey’s organizers said they should study why another category of citizens not those who participated in the survey showed up at the polling stations to cast their ballots (!). <\/p>\n

Actually, this time, in spite of Moldova’s 21st century tradition, participating in the elections were not only retirees, who conventionally cast ballots for communists, but also youths. Those, who have been recently assigned the right to vote, did not want that their grand-mothers and grand-fathers decide on their fate. Despite predictions by sociologists, they went to the ballot. And this was the merit of Chirtoaca and some other former candidates who firmly backed him in the runoff and persuaded Chisinau residents to come to the polling stations. <\/p>\n

The main conclusion of the mayoral election in Chisinau is that the overwhelming majority of capital’s residents cast ballots against communists rather than for Chirtoaca. And it was not only the youth that elected him, but also representatives of the middle class, entrepreneurs, intelligentsia and a large part of Russian speaking voters. It was a “protest electorate”. Had the ballot papers included an “against all” column, it is likely that a wide part of voters would have voted against both candidates. But in this case, they voted against the communists’ protégé and, accordingly, for his challenger. <\/p>\n

A few years ago, a journalist said that it does not matter who Vladimir Voronin would back at the elections – if he puts forward his hat as a candidate, voters would elect it. This postulate, which was fair at that time, is no longer valid. The personality of the candidate does matter, while Voronin’s support can have a boomerang effect, that is, to lead to a negative outcome. At a certain stage, the Party of Communists became aware of it as well. The Communist newspaper hardly backed Iordan, while his election leaflets even underlined that Iordan is no member of the Party of Communists. Yet, it was too late. <\/p>\n

Another difficulty for Iordan resided in that fact that he is not a “public personality” and, in line with the communist traditions, he refused to participate in TV debates. International observers, who came for the elections, stated from the outset that for candidates in their countries, refusing TV debates would mean signing their death penalty. This worldwide practice starts bringing results in Moldova as well, where, in addition, the tradition of holding pre-election TV debates is sparking off. <\/p>\n

Communists themselves indirectly contributed to Dorin Chirtoaca’s victory. Over the last few years, they have done a lot to reorient the electorate. And if the international organizations are quite reluctant to believe in the sincerity of the official Chisinau when it comes to European integration, then voters preferred the candidate who matches best the so much advertised European values. Communists, who took power in 2001 due to pro-Russian slogans, have done a lot for the electorate to turn anti-Russian, thus helping indirectly their political challengers. Meanwhile, it seems that the ruling party has not yet made up its mind as to the foreign policy it should carry out. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reading Time: <\/span> 5<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>The outcome of the 3 and 17 June local elections, that came as a surprise especially in Chisinau, has triggered political commentaries and debates during the current inter-season political period. Wit<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-106723","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"content_social_share":"Reading Time: <\/span> 5<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

Author: Anatol Golea, Infotag<\/p>\n

The outcome of the 3 and 17 June local elections, that came as a surprise especially in Chisinau, has triggered political commentaries and debates during the current inter-season political period. With politicians being on holidays, political analysts are trying to discover the secret of success of young Liberal Dorin Chirtoaca and understand why the rating of the ruling Party of Communists is falling. They are seeking to forecast the further actions of the opposition, as it is for the first time since 2001 that it stands real chances of struggling for power. They are also trying to predict the actions of Communists who are not eager to give up power. <\/p>\n

Touching upon the Chisinau mayoral election, it is worth mentioning that the winner had nothing but enthusiasm, while the defeated communist candidate had unlimited financial and administrative resources as well as the backing of the ruling party and President Vladimir Voronin. <\/p>\n

Dorin Chirtoaca’s success can be regarded as the “peak of triumph” of the Liberal Party and its leader, Mihai Ghimpu, who has been persistently participating in the fight for power since the 1994 elections, when the Reform Party was set up. At the time, the project turned out to be a failure, with the founders and leaders of that party leaving politics for business. As to the political brand, they left it as a gift to Mihai Ghimpu, who has unsuccessfully tried to promote it. A deputy in the first Moldovan parliament, Ghimpu has never again managed to enter the lawmaking body despite huge efforts. <\/p>\n

After repeated failures during various pre-election struggles, Mihai Ghimpu turned out to be the most agile when appropriating – absolutely for free and on legal basis – the brand of “Liberal party” that Liberals of former President Mircea Snegur and of the new opposition leader Serafim Urechean had given up in the wake of struggles. Yet, Ghimpu quickly realized that the name of “Liberal party” has both tradition and doctrine, and opens up quite wide prospects. It is difficult to say whether precisely this name laid the foundation for his party’s success at the latest mayoral election in Chisinau. Undoubtedly, a successful project of the wise through political experience uncle became his nephew – Dorin Chirtoaca. <\/p>\n

He has actively promoted himself, set tasks and fulfilled them consistently. Chirtoaca participated in the 2005 mayoral elections and even came second in the runoff (which was invalidated because of low turnout); as ordinary citizen, he used to attend city hall meetings giving rise to minor scandals against the then acting mayor, Vasile Ursu. To put it otherwise, he made himself known and despite his youth and complete lack of management experience, voters saw him as an alternative to the current authorities. His pro-European position and the fact that he has been involved in no corrupt scandals so far has also played an important role. <\/p>\n

In addition, he had real good luck with his main challenger, Veaceslav Iordan. An irrelevant and muffled politician, a narrow-minded manager and an insignificant orator with absolutely no charisma – all these helped the energetic Chirtoaca. <\/p>\n

It might be that Iordan is quite a nice person, but his spin doctors failed to show this to voters. PR-technologists are still to study Iordan’s ambiguous election campaign, which was worked out under the assistance of Romanian image-makers. <\/p>\n

Many reckon that Communists made a mistake when they unexpectedly relieved Vasile Ursu from the office of Chisinau acting mayor and appointing their candidate, Veaceslav Iordan, to this position. Analysts are saying that Ursu would have easily won the election from the very first round. It is impossible to prove that and it is pointless to guess. It is known that there is no use in shaking your fist after a fight, let alone after an election. President Vladimir Voronin himself has said at a recent news conference that “all are wise after the event”. <\/p>\n

Public opinion polls are also hardly reliable, as they are highly irrelevant in Moldova and as a rule seek to form the public opinion rather than to study it. Besides, they form it quite unsuccessfully as well. For instance, a few weeks before the June elections, the most authoritarian poll, Public Opinion Barometer, put Iordan much ahead the other contenders. After the election, the survey’s organizers said they should study why another category of citizens not those who participated in the survey showed up at the polling stations to cast their ballots (!). <\/p>\n

Actually, this time, in spite of Moldova’s 21st century tradition, participating in the elections were not only retirees, who conventionally cast ballots for communists, but also youths. Those, who have been recently assigned the right to vote, did not want that their grand-mothers and grand-fathers decide on their fate. Despite predictions by sociologists, they went to the ballot. And this was the merit of Chirtoaca and some other former candidates who firmly backed him in the runoff and persuaded Chisinau residents to come to the polling stations. <\/p>\n

The main conclusion of the mayoral election in Chisinau is that the overwhelming majority of capital’s residents cast ballots against communists rather than for Chirtoaca. And it was not only the youth that elected him, but also representatives of the middle class, entrepreneurs, intelligentsia and a large part of Russian speaking voters. It was a “protest electorate”. Had the ballot papers included an “against all” column, it is likely that a wide part of voters would have voted against both candidates. But in this case, they voted against the communists’ protégé and, accordingly, for his challenger. <\/p>\n

A few years ago, a journalist said that it does not matter who Vladimir Voronin would back at the elections – if he puts forward his hat as a candidate, voters would elect it. This postulate, which was fair at that time, is no longer valid. The personality of the candidate does matter, while Voronin’s support can have a boomerang effect, that is, to lead to a negative outcome. At a certain stage, the Party of Communists became aware of it as well. The Communist newspaper hardly backed Iordan, while his election leaflets even underlined that Iordan is no member of the Party of Communists. Yet, it was too late. <\/p>\n

Another difficulty for Iordan resided in that fact that he is not a “public personality” and, in line with the communist traditions, he refused to participate in TV debates. International observers, who came for the elections, stated from the outset that for candidates in their countries, refusing TV debates would mean signing their death penalty. This worldwide practice starts bringing results in Moldova as well, where, in addition, the tradition of holding pre-election TV debates is sparking off. <\/p>\n

Communists themselves indirectly contributed to Dorin Chirtoaca’s victory. Over the last few years, they have done a lot to reorient the electorate. And if the international organizations are quite reluctant to believe in the sincerity of the official Chisinau when it comes to European integration, then voters preferred the candidate who matches best the so much advertised European values. Communists, who took power in 2001 due to pro-Russian slogans, have done a lot for the electorate to turn anti-Russian, thus helping indirectly their political challengers. Meanwhile, it seems that the ruling party has not yet made up its mind as to the foreign policy it should carry out. <\/p>\n

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