{"id":104340,"date":"2007-06-12T11:18:00","date_gmt":"2007-06-12T11:18:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/new.moldova.org\/2007\/06\/12\/analysis-moldova-communists-stay-in-control-thanks-to-democrats-52295-eng\/"},"modified":"2007-06-12T11:18:00","modified_gmt":"2007-06-12T11:18:00","slug":"analysis-moldova-communists-stay-in-control-thanks-to-democrats-52295-eng","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/analysis-moldova-communists-stay-in-control-thanks-to-democrats-52295-eng\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: Moldova: Communists stay in control thanks to democrats"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 5<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

Author: Tammy Lynch \/\/ ISCIP<\/p>\n

On 3 June, Moldovans went to the polls for mayoral and local council elections, seen as an indicator of attitudes in advance of the 2009 parliamentary vote. Given the outcome of the local elections, the ruling Communist Party should be concerned. But given history, the party’s leaders may have little to worry about, as its opponents rarely have the ability to take advantage of electoral opportunities. <\/p>\n

The preliminary results of the elections have been reported differently in several media outlets, all of which claim to quote the Central Election Commission. The most reliable data appear to come from the Moldpres News Agency, which showed that the Communist Party placed first in 277 of the country’s 898 mayoral races. (1) <\/p>\n

Two liberal, West-leaning forces followed. The Moldova Noastra Alliance (MNA, 152 seats or 16.88%), and Democratic Party of Moldova (DP, 74 seats or 8.29%) placed first in a significant number of mayoral races. The Infotag News Agency reported also that the Christian Democratic Popular Party (CDPP, 72 or 8.05%) did well, achieving fourth place. (2) <\/p>\n

\"AlegeriMany of these mayoral races will go to run-offs, because the winners failed to score the required 50% of the vote. However, the CEC did not immediately make clear which, or how many, of the 898 races would be affected. This could make a significant difference, since pro-West forces do considerably better in head-to-head races than in large fields. <\/p>\n

In the capital, there will be a mayoral run-off in two weeks, as first place Communist candidate, Veaceslav Iordan, scored only 28% of the vote. This result likely is a disappointment, given the Communist Party’s push to finally take control of Chisinau, the only major city where non-Communist forces have maintained significant influence. Liberal Party candidate Dorin Chirtoaca placed second with 24.64% of the vote, while the MNA, Democratic Party and Party of Social Democracy candidates followed with roughly 8% each. <\/p>\n

Additionally, the Communists won almost 30% of the seats in the Chisinau city council, with the Liberal Party (19%), MNA (11%), Democratic Party (6.6%) and CDPP (6%) following. <\/p>\n

The results make one point abundantly clear – those opposing the Communist Party missed a genuine opportunity to work together to increase their influence. In fact, at a time when Moldovans appear to be growing disenchanted with the Communists, who have been in power since 2001, the liberal democratic forces could have scored decisive victories in key areas – had they united. <\/p>\n

A decrease in Communist support is apparent when comparing these results to the previous local elections in 2003. At that time, the Communist Party earned 41% of all mayoral seats. (2) This means that the Party lost approximately 90 seats in the current election. <\/p>\n

Also in 2003, the Communist Party won just under 45% of all local council seats and 48% of all municipal seats (which translated into 54% of all municipal mandates because of threshold requirements). (3) In last weekend’s election, the Communists saw those percentages shrink to 35% and 36%, respectively. <\/p>\n

This loss occurred even though most election observation missions found that the electoral atmosphere leading up to the poll was not conducive to fair elections. The Civic Coalition for Free and Fair Elections 2007, consisting of seven independent Moldovan NGOs, monitored the campaign period and election-day. <\/p>\n

The group found that “administration of the election was often biased, especially in terms of registration of contestants, exclusion of contestants from the electoral race, challenging of CEC decisions and delay in examining complaints. Ballots were compiled with several inaccuracies….” Furthermore, the group compared this election to those previously monitored by its members in 2003 and 2005. “In this campaign,” the coalition wrote, “administrative resources were widely used, and intimidation of electoral contestants occurred in an unprecedented and alarming proportion. Also, the practice of ‘purchasing’ votes was evident.” (4) <\/p>\n

The OSCE\/ODIHR Mission to Moldova noted similar problems. “One of the hallmarks of a democratic election is the ability for candidates to run for office on an equal basis, free from intimidation," said Ambassador Dieter Boden, head of the ODIHR mission. "There were a number of cases throughout the country where candidates faced pressure or dismissal or suspension from their jobs as a result of their political activities." The OSCE\/ODIHR preliminary mission report, which included observations from 200 monitors, also noted extensive, sometimes unequal media coverage of state authorities during the campaign and a number of cases where local authorities failed to guarantee equal conditions for all parties and candidates. (5) <\/p>\n

Nevertheless, the Communists were unable to match their performance in 2003. This is largely due to general frustration among the Moldovan voters caused by continuing economic stagnation, leading to the highest level of poverty in Europe, a failure to integrate successfully into any international groupings, and the inability of the government to deal with the separatist republic of Transnistria. A poll by the IMAS agency in March found that 54% of the country is “dissatisfied with the current state of affairs in Moldova.” Thirty-three percent of those polled responded that they were satisfied, while 13% did not provide an answer. (6) <\/p>\n

Still, even with all of this, the parties opposing the Communists have been unable to provide an alternative. All of the “democratic” parties listed above have, at one time or another, formed coalitions with each other. These coalitions were beset with bickering and backstabbing, and consequently were unable to formulate effective plans. They all fell apart under their own top-heavy weight. As in most post-Soviet states, party leaders often are unable to refuse “incentives” provided to them by the ruling government, and consequently are unable (or unwilling) to develop an effective opposition. <\/p>\n

Because the opposition parties are now splintered into five or more entities, their votes were split in the mayoral races. This fact allowed the Communists to win a plurality of mayoral seats. If, for example, the Liberal Party, MNA, Popular Social Democratic Party, Moldovan Democratic Party and Christian Democratic Popular Party had united in the Chisinau mayoral race, they would have won 53% of the vote, and a run-off would be unnecessary. This is assuming, of course, that they could have formulated a unified, effective campaign strategy. They have not done so in any election so far. <\/p>\n

Therefore, when looking forward, the opposition to the Communist Party should be optimistic. Even fragmented, pressured, and facing a virtual media blockade, its parties were able to increase their representation throughout the country. But, their short term successes have never translated into an ability to score large, long term wins. That could change in 2009, if Moldova’s non-Communist leaders are finally able to put aside their personal animosities and respond to the concerns of their citizens. <\/p>\n

Source Notes:
\n(1) “Central Election Commission announces preliminary outcome of general local elections in Moldova,” Moldpres, 4 Jun 07. Numbers are the authors own estimates based on provided percentages. For example, Moldpres reports that the Communist Party won 30.81% of 898 races, according to the CEC. The author estimates this figure at 277 seats.
\n(2) “Communist Party wins local elections in Moldova,” Infotag, 4 Jun 07 via Moldova Foundation Weekly News Bulletin.
\n(3) European Forum for Democracy and Solidarity – Moldova Update, 18 Sep 06 via www.europeanforum.net\/country\/moldova.
\n(4) “LOCAL ELECTIONS LARGELY DID NOT COMPLY WITH INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS,” Civic Coalition for Free and Fair Elections Coalition 2007, 4 Jun 07 via Moldova Foundation Weekly News Bulletin.
\n(5) “International standards unevenly implemented during local elections in Moldova,” OSCE Mission to Moldova, 4 Jun 07 via www.osce.org\/moldova\/item_1_24816.html.
\n(6) IMAS Agency (Interviews with 1,091 Moldovan adults, conducted from Mar. 14 to Mar. 23, 2007. Margin of error is 3 per cent.) via Angus Reid Global Monitor, www.angus-reid.com.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reading Time: <\/span> 5<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>On 3 June, Moldovans went to the polls for mayoral and local council elections, seen as an indicator of attitudes in advance of the 2009 parliamentary vote. Given the outcome of the local elections, t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-104340","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"content_social_share":"Reading Time: <\/span> 5<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

Author: Tammy Lynch \/\/ ISCIP<\/p>\n

On 3 June, Moldovans went to the polls for mayoral and local council elections, seen as an indicator of attitudes in advance of the 2009 parliamentary vote. Given the outcome of the local elections, the ruling Communist Party should be concerned. But given history, the party’s leaders may have little to worry about, as its opponents rarely have the ability to take advantage of electoral opportunities. <\/p>\n

The preliminary results of the elections have been reported differently in several media outlets, all of which claim to quote the Central Election Commission. The most reliable data appear to come from the Moldpres News Agency, which showed that the Communist Party placed first in 277 of the country’s 898 mayoral races. (1) <\/p>\n

Two liberal, West-leaning forces followed. The Moldova Noastra Alliance (MNA, 152 seats or 16.88%), and Democratic Party of Moldova (DP, 74 seats or 8.29%) placed first in a significant number of mayoral races. The Infotag News Agency reported also that the Christian Democratic Popular Party (CDPP, 72 or 8.05%) did well, achieving fourth place. (2) <\/p>\n

\"AlegeriMany of these mayoral races will go to run-offs, because the winners failed to score the required 50% of the vote. However, the CEC did not immediately make clear which, or how many, of the 898 races would be affected. This could make a significant difference, since pro-West forces do considerably better in head-to-head races than in large fields. <\/p>\n

In the capital, there will be a mayoral run-off in two weeks, as first place Communist candidate, Veaceslav Iordan, scored only 28% of the vote. This result likely is a disappointment, given the Communist Party’s push to finally take control of Chisinau, the only major city where non-Communist forces have maintained significant influence. Liberal Party candidate Dorin Chirtoaca placed second with 24.64% of the vote, while the MNA, Democratic Party and Party of Social Democracy candidates followed with roughly 8% each. <\/p>\n

Additionally, the Communists won almost 30% of the seats in the Chisinau city council, with the Liberal Party (19%), MNA (11%), Democratic Party (6.6%) and CDPP (6%) following. <\/p>\n

The results make one point abundantly clear – those opposing the Communist Party missed a genuine opportunity to work together to increase their influence. In fact, at a time when Moldovans appear to be growing disenchanted with the Communists, who have been in power since 2001, the liberal democratic forces could have scored decisive victories in key areas – had they united. <\/p>\n

A decrease in Communist support is apparent when comparing these results to the previous local elections in 2003. At that time, the Communist Party earned 41% of all mayoral seats. (2) This means that the Party lost approximately 90 seats in the current election. <\/p>\n

Also in 2003, the Communist Party won just under 45% of all local council seats and 48% of all municipal seats (which translated into 54% of all municipal mandates because of threshold requirements). (3) In last weekend’s election, the Communists saw those percentages shrink to 35% and 36%, respectively. <\/p>\n

This loss occurred even though most election observation missions found that the electoral atmosphere leading up to the poll was not conducive to fair elections. The Civic Coalition for Free and Fair Elections 2007, consisting of seven independent Moldovan NGOs, monitored the campaign period and election-day. <\/p>\n

The group found that “administration of the election was often biased, especially in terms of registration of contestants, exclusion of contestants from the electoral race, challenging of CEC decisions and delay in examining complaints. Ballots were compiled with several inaccuracies….” Furthermore, the group compared this election to those previously monitored by its members in 2003 and 2005. “In this campaign,” the coalition wrote, “administrative resources were widely used, and intimidation of electoral contestants occurred in an unprecedented and alarming proportion. Also, the practice of ‘purchasing’ votes was evident.” (4) <\/p>\n

The OSCE\/ODIHR Mission to Moldova noted similar problems. “One of the hallmarks of a democratic election is the ability for candidates to run for office on an equal basis, free from intimidation," said Ambassador Dieter Boden, head of the ODIHR mission. "There were a number of cases throughout the country where candidates faced pressure or dismissal or suspension from their jobs as a result of their political activities." The OSCE\/ODIHR preliminary mission report, which included observations from 200 monitors, also noted extensive, sometimes unequal media coverage of state authorities during the campaign and a number of cases where local authorities failed to guarantee equal conditions for all parties and candidates. (5) <\/p>\n

Nevertheless, the Communists were unable to match their performance in 2003. This is largely due to general frustration among the Moldovan voters caused by continuing economic stagnation, leading to the highest level of poverty in Europe, a failure to integrate successfully into any international groupings, and the inability of the government to deal with the separatist republic of Transnistria. A poll by the IMAS agency in March found that 54% of the country is “dissatisfied with the current state of affairs in Moldova.” Thirty-three percent of those polled responded that they were satisfied, while 13% did not provide an answer. (6) <\/p>\n

Still, even with all of this, the parties opposing the Communists have been unable to provide an alternative. All of the “democratic” parties listed above have, at one time or another, formed coalitions with each other. These coalitions were beset with bickering and backstabbing, and consequently were unable to formulate effective plans. They all fell apart under their own top-heavy weight. As in most post-Soviet states, party leaders often are unable to refuse “incentives” provided to them by the ruling government, and consequently are unable (or unwilling) to develop an effective opposition. <\/p>\n

Because the opposition parties are now splintered into five or more entities, their votes were split in the mayoral races. This fact allowed the Communists to win a plurality of mayoral seats. If, for example, the Liberal Party, MNA, Popular Social Democratic Party, Moldovan Democratic Party and Christian Democratic Popular Party had united in the Chisinau mayoral race, they would have won 53% of the vote, and a run-off would be unnecessary. This is assuming, of course, that they could have formulated a unified, effective campaign strategy. They have not done so in any election so far. <\/p>\n

Therefore, when looking forward, the opposition to the Communist Party should be optimistic. Even fragmented, pressured, and facing a virtual media blockade, its parties were able to increase their representation throughout the country. But, their short term successes have never translated into an ability to score large, long term wins. That could change in 2009, if Moldova’s non-Communist leaders are finally able to put aside their personal animosities and respond to the concerns of their citizens. <\/p>\n

Source Notes:
\n(1) “Central Election Commission announces preliminary outcome of general local elections in Moldova,” Moldpres, 4 Jun 07. Numbers are the authors own estimates based on provided percentages. For example, Moldpres reports that the Communist Party won 30.81% of 898 races, according to the CEC. The author estimates this figure at 277 seats.
\n(2) “Communist Party wins local elections in Moldova,” Infotag, 4 Jun 07 via Moldova Foundation Weekly News Bulletin.
\n(3) European Forum for Democracy and Solidarity – Moldova Update, 18 Sep 06 via www.europeanforum.net\/country\/moldova.
\n(4) “LOCAL ELECTIONS LARGELY DID NOT COMPLY WITH INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS,” Civic Coalition for Free and Fair Elections Coalition 2007, 4 Jun 07 via Moldova Foundation Weekly News Bulletin.
\n(5) “International standards unevenly implemented during local elections in Moldova,” OSCE Mission to Moldova, 4 Jun 07 via www.osce.org\/moldova\/item_1_24816.html.
\n(6) IMAS Agency (Interviews with 1,091 Moldovan adults, conducted from Mar. 14 to Mar. 23, 2007. Margin of error is 3 per cent.) via Angus Reid Global Monitor, www.angus-reid.com.<\/p>\n

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