{"id":104038,"date":"2007-05-03T00:01:00","date_gmt":"2007-05-03T00:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/new.moldova.org\/2007\/05\/03\/vladimir-socor-moldova-is-up-for-russian-grabs-again-45423-eng\/"},"modified":"2007-05-03T00:01:00","modified_gmt":"2007-05-03T00:01:00","slug":"vladimir-socor-moldova-is-up-for-russian-grabs-again-45423-eng","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/vladimir-socor-moldova-is-up-for-russian-grabs-again-45423-eng\/","title":{"rendered":"Vladimir Socor: Moldova is up for Russian grabs again"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 4<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

\nSpeaking at the conference “Frozen Conflicts in the ex-Soviet Union. Two-track Approach: Democratization and Multinational Peacekeeping Operations. The Case of Moldova”, Senior Fellow of the Jamestown Foundation Vladimir Socor has explained why it is important for the West to pay more attention towards Moldova. The event was held on April 26 at Georgetown University and it was organized by the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy and the Center for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies of Georgetown University and the Moldova Foundation. <\/p>\n

Socor divided his remarks into three parts: why Moldova matters, a historical survey of the Transnistrian conflict, and a survey of the current situation. <\/p>\n

Below is the summary of Mr. Socor’s presentation. <\/p>\n

Regarding the reasons why Moldova matters, Socor noted that they tend to elude the Western powers. Moldova is the last country in Europe with an undetermined status between East and West. The people have chosen a Western direction, but the state of Moldova is too weak to make the choice. Russian influence and military presence make it even more difficult, and currently Moldova is the only country in Europe that is "up for Russian grabs again." <\/p>\n

Russia’s objectives in Moldova are at a minimum to use the de facto Transnistrian government as a remote-controlled projector of Russian force and business interests. Russia’s maximum objective is to utilize the separatist region to impose a settlement that makes Moldova a dysfunctional state using a "federalization scheme." A "stake was driven through the heart" of the federalization idea by President Voronin and by Moldovan civil society in 2004. <\/p>\n

Moldova also matters because it is situated on a very long sector of the border between the old and the new Europe. Moldova has a 700-kilometer border with Romania and a 1200-km border with Ukraine, making it the longest European sector of the new Euro-Atlantic border. <\/p>\n

\"\"The questions arise of who will shape events along this border – the US and EU, or Russia through its agents in Transnistria? Or will Moldova end up in some sort of grey zone? These high stakes are largely ignored because Moldova appears insignificant.
\nMoldova is the most vulnerable state in Europe today. In this respect, it resembles the Balkans in the 1990’s; today, former conflict areas of the Balkans are run as Western protectorates with EU involvement and NATO troops on the ground. Moldova’s vulnerability is caused by weak institutions, limited administrative competence of its government, low national awareness, and low involvement of the West. The country is no longer on the brink of failure, but it has shown only elements of recovery and not a real recovery. <\/p>\n

The Transnistrian conflict is not a civil conflict as Russia would have us believe, a belief that the OSCE "obediently" supported. There is no conflict between the two parts of Moldova at the elite or at the mass level. The actors involved in the conflict are Russian citizens, some of them Russian officers, who remain in Transnistria to "hold down the fort" for Russia. They represent a foreign state with troops on the territory of Moldova, and their loyalties are to Russia and not to Moldova. <\/p>\n

The only way a resolution of the conflict is possible with the inclusion of the current Transnistrian leadership is by "liquidating" Moldovan independence. This almost happened in 2002-04 when the Russian "nominees" in Transnistria were invited to draft a new constitution by the OSCE. [Deputy Asst. Secretary of State] Steve Mann has turned US policy around, and since then the US has become the main supporter of Moldovan statehood and viability. <\/p>\n

Surveying Moldova’s post-Soviet history, Socor highlighted three free and fair elections, each of which was won by the opposition. Voronin in 2005 was the first leader to win re-election. The Communist Party came to power in Moldova in 2001 on the crest of a wave of dissatisfaction with agricultural reforms. Another factor was the collapse of the parliamentary system in the late 1990s. Voronin came to power in 2001 on a very pro-Russian platform, talking about Moldova becoming a "European Cuba" and reinstating preferential treatment for the Russian language. <\/p>\n

By 2003, a 180-degree turn was evident in Voronin’s policies. The final turn took place in mid-2004, both because Voronin realized that Russia simply wanted to "re-colonize" Moldova and because of Voronin’s increased exposure to the West. Moldovan leaders had been provincial and "Soviet-nostalgic" but learned more about the West while in power. <\/p>\n

In late 2003, an EU plan was put forward requiring lots of action – the Communist Party, in spite of their provincial inclinations, voted for these reforms in a show of loyalty to Voronin’s leadership. This was not a sound constitutional approach; the President should not also wear the hat of the General Secretary of the main party in Parliament. On the other hand, Parliament probably would not have voted for reforms otherwise. <\/p>\n[CDPP leader and Vice-Speaker of Parliament] Iurie Rosca continues to play a key role in promoting EU-oriented policies. <\/p>\n

Looking ahead, parliamentary elections are scheduled for the first half of 2008, and then the newly elected parliament will pick the president. There is a risk of a fragmented parliament with a wide variety of forces which will be unable to form coalitions, which could give Russia the chance to manipulate the situation and ensure that the parliament is dysfunctional. <\/p>\n

The best investment for the West to make is to educate the new generation of leaders who are no longer burdened by the Soviet past or by the still-powerful networks formed by some younger politicians during the waning years of Komsomol’s existence. The West needs to make sure that the ruling elite learns English, as Moldova may be the only country in the region where the Prime Minister, President, and the Foreign Minister are all non-English-speakers. The language barrier can lead to misinterpretation in both directions. <\/p>\n

* * * <\/p>\n

The full summary of the event can be viewed here:
\nhttp:\/\/foundation.moldova.org\/pagini\/eng\/965<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reading Time: <\/span> 4<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>Speaking at the conference \u201cFrozen Conflicts in the ex-Soviet Union. Two-track Approach: Democratization and Multinational Peacekeeping Operations. The Case of Moldova\u201d, Senior Fellow of the Jamestown<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-104038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"content_social_share":"Reading Time: <\/span> 4<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

\nSpeaking at the conference “Frozen Conflicts in the ex-Soviet Union. Two-track Approach: Democratization and Multinational Peacekeeping Operations. The Case of Moldova”, Senior Fellow of the Jamestown Foundation Vladimir Socor has explained why it is important for the West to pay more attention towards Moldova. The event was held on April 26 at Georgetown University and it was organized by the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy and the Center for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies of Georgetown University and the Moldova Foundation. <\/p>\n

Socor divided his remarks into three parts: why Moldova matters, a historical survey of the Transnistrian conflict, and a survey of the current situation. <\/p>\n

Below is the summary of Mr. Socor’s presentation. <\/p>\n

Regarding the reasons why Moldova matters, Socor noted that they tend to elude the Western powers. Moldova is the last country in Europe with an undetermined status between East and West. The people have chosen a Western direction, but the state of Moldova is too weak to make the choice. Russian influence and military presence make it even more difficult, and currently Moldova is the only country in Europe that is "up for Russian grabs again." <\/p>\n

Russia’s objectives in Moldova are at a minimum to use the de facto Transnistrian government as a remote-controlled projector of Russian force and business interests. Russia’s maximum objective is to utilize the separatist region to impose a settlement that makes Moldova a dysfunctional state using a "federalization scheme." A "stake was driven through the heart" of the federalization idea by President Voronin and by Moldovan civil society in 2004. <\/p>\n

Moldova also matters because it is situated on a very long sector of the border between the old and the new Europe. Moldova has a 700-kilometer border with Romania and a 1200-km border with Ukraine, making it the longest European sector of the new Euro-Atlantic border. <\/p>\n

\"\"The questions arise of who will shape events along this border – the US and EU, or Russia through its agents in Transnistria? Or will Moldova end up in some sort of grey zone? These high stakes are largely ignored because Moldova appears insignificant.
\nMoldova is the most vulnerable state in Europe today. In this respect, it resembles the Balkans in the 1990’s; today, former conflict areas of the Balkans are run as Western protectorates with EU involvement and NATO troops on the ground. Moldova’s vulnerability is caused by weak institutions, limited administrative competence of its government, low national awareness, and low involvement of the West. The country is no longer on the brink of failure, but it has shown only elements of recovery and not a real recovery. <\/p>\n

The Transnistrian conflict is not a civil conflict as Russia would have us believe, a belief that the OSCE "obediently" supported. There is no conflict between the two parts of Moldova at the elite or at the mass level. The actors involved in the conflict are Russian citizens, some of them Russian officers, who remain in Transnistria to "hold down the fort" for Russia. They represent a foreign state with troops on the territory of Moldova, and their loyalties are to Russia and not to Moldova. <\/p>\n

The only way a resolution of the conflict is possible with the inclusion of the current Transnistrian leadership is by "liquidating" Moldovan independence. This almost happened in 2002-04 when the Russian "nominees" in Transnistria were invited to draft a new constitution by the OSCE. [Deputy Asst. Secretary of State] Steve Mann has turned US policy around, and since then the US has become the main supporter of Moldovan statehood and viability. <\/p>\n

Surveying Moldova’s post-Soviet history, Socor highlighted three free and fair elections, each of which was won by the opposition. Voronin in 2005 was the first leader to win re-election. The Communist Party came to power in Moldova in 2001 on the crest of a wave of dissatisfaction with agricultural reforms. Another factor was the collapse of the parliamentary system in the late 1990s. Voronin came to power in 2001 on a very pro-Russian platform, talking about Moldova becoming a "European Cuba" and reinstating preferential treatment for the Russian language. <\/p>\n

By 2003, a 180-degree turn was evident in Voronin’s policies. The final turn took place in mid-2004, both because Voronin realized that Russia simply wanted to "re-colonize" Moldova and because of Voronin’s increased exposure to the West. Moldovan leaders had been provincial and "Soviet-nostalgic" but learned more about the West while in power. <\/p>\n

In late 2003, an EU plan was put forward requiring lots of action – the Communist Party, in spite of their provincial inclinations, voted for these reforms in a show of loyalty to Voronin’s leadership. This was not a sound constitutional approach; the President should not also wear the hat of the General Secretary of the main party in Parliament. On the other hand, Parliament probably would not have voted for reforms otherwise. <\/p>\n[CDPP leader and Vice-Speaker of Parliament] Iurie Rosca continues to play a key role in promoting EU-oriented policies. <\/p>\n

Looking ahead, parliamentary elections are scheduled for the first half of 2008, and then the newly elected parliament will pick the president. There is a risk of a fragmented parliament with a wide variety of forces which will be unable to form coalitions, which could give Russia the chance to manipulate the situation and ensure that the parliament is dysfunctional. <\/p>\n

The best investment for the West to make is to educate the new generation of leaders who are no longer burdened by the Soviet past or by the still-powerful networks formed by some younger politicians during the waning years of Komsomol’s existence. The West needs to make sure that the ruling elite learns English, as Moldova may be the only country in the region where the Prime Minister, President, and the Foreign Minister are all non-English-speakers. The language barrier can lead to misinterpretation in both directions. <\/p>\n

* * * <\/p>\n

The full summary of the event can be viewed here:
\nhttp:\/\/foundation.moldova.org\/pagini\/eng\/965<\/p>\n

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