{"id":101396,"date":"2006-07-18T19:56:00","date_gmt":"2006-07-18T19:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/new.moldova.org\/2006\/07\/18\/vladimir-socor-a-union-between-moldova-and-romania-would-jeopardize-romanias-chances-to-enter-the-eu-14446-eng\/"},"modified":"2006-07-18T19:56:00","modified_gmt":"2006-07-18T19:56:00","slug":"vladimir-socor-a-union-between-moldova-and-romania-would-jeopardize-romanias-chances-to-enter-the-eu-14446-eng","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moldova.org\/en\/vladimir-socor-a-union-between-moldova-and-romania-would-jeopardize-romanias-chances-to-enter-the-eu-14446-eng\/","title":{"rendered":"Vladimir Socor: A union between Moldova and Romania would jeopardize Romania\u2019s chances to enter the EU"},"content":{"rendered":"Reading Time: <\/span> 6<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

Exclusive interview with a western political analyst, Vlad Socor <\/p>\n

Question: Mr. Socor, how do you consider the statements Romanian President Traian Basescu made on 1 and 3 July about an eventual unification between Romania and Moldova from the prospect of their EU entry? <\/p>\n

SOCOR: These emotional and unrealistic statements by President Basescu do not have to make us lose sight of fundamental things that are in force: Romania is doomed to be Moldova’s consistent backer, the advocate on whom Moldova counts in hard times. I repeat what I have already said: President Basescu and the Hungarian Foreign Minister help focus Washington’s and Brussels’ attention on Moldova’s problems: the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria; the need in the EU trade and travel preferences; and Moldova’s inclusion in the group of the South-eastern European states which have more favourable EU accession conditions. <\/p>\n

The capital of confidence between Chisinau and Bucharest, which has been carefully built up by Traian Basescu, as well as Romania’s international credibility, are too precious to be easily wasted by this latest statements. <\/p>\n

The idea that Moldova could join the European Union through some mechanism of unification with Romania is merely a fantasy. There has never been and neither could it be any 2005 offer by Bucharest to "bring" Moldova within the EU jointly with Romania. President Basescu could by no means seriously propose this to President Voronin. <\/p>\n

Brussels did not authorize Bucharest to make such proposals to Chisinau. <\/p>\n

There is no way Brussels could authorise Bucharest to make such a proposal to Chisinau. And it is unconceivable that Bucharest called on the EU to authorise such a scenario, because it would have jeopardised even Romania’s chances to enter the EU. <\/p>\n

The European Union negotiated Romania’s accession on the basis of clearly defined conditions, which Romania has fulfilled slowly and with difficulty till this year. Brussels negotiated the accession namely with Romania, and not with some state union "Romania-Moldova", which somebody figured out. For the time being, Moldova is far from meeting the criteria and conditions so that to start at least the EU accession process. Brussels would not have "imported" the territory from the right bank of the Dniestre river with its unresolved social and economic problems, and neither would it have allowed losing the territory from the left bank of Dniestre by its transformation into a kind of "Kaliningrad-II". The EU’s policy is based on Moldova’s independence and integrity. <\/p>\n

Of course, Moldova will advance along the European integration way, being helped including by Romania, which will soon become an EU member. But there is no "short way" to enter the EU, without meeting the EU criteria. Chisinau follows correctly the way of the European Union Action Plan for Moldova, and not fantasy scenarios. <\/p>\n

Such statements could lead to social division and lack of trust between these two countries. <\/p>\n

Question: What do you think about the opportunity of President Basescu’s statements? <\/p>\n

Answer: I deem as inopportune to emphasise the historical and national identity problems, and to resume discussions and render political the "Moldovan or Romanian" issue. Moldova has long ago found out the counterproductive effects of such approaches: social disunion, distracting attention from real problems, mutual attacks in media, lack of confidence between the two banks of Prut, and drawing water to Tiraspol’s mill. It is also inopportune to formulate the problem in territorial terms, being nostalgic about the "lost territories" – this vision is misplaced nowadays. <\/p>\n

The consistent return to the historical problems and the national identity issue do not represent Romania’s political strategy on Moldova, they rather point to a deficit of strategy. Last year, President Basescu proceeded to repair this deficit, repeatedly stating that the time is ripe to move from discussions about history and philology to measures in the gas and electricity sectors. The Romanian president was right to incriminate Russia’s "energy blackmail" and promised to help Moldova cope with it. In his turn, the Hungarian Foreign Minister cooperates with Chisinau for Moldova’s European integration through the Balkan channel. <\/p>\n

A European partnership with Moldova will bring regional and international credibility and prestige to Romania. On the contrary, a policy based on historical and identity criteria is no longer understood in the contemporary Europe, especially if such a policy is officially presented in this old-fashioned way. <\/p>\n

Question: How do you think, what impact these statements will have on the Romanian-Moldovan relations? <\/p>\n

Answer: A new round of "traditional" Bucharest-Chisinau polemics on historical and national identity issues can by no means be allowed. Moscow and Tiraspol are as happy as one can be in such situations. The past years’ polemics would have disastrous consequences nowadays, when the stakes are bigger than ever both for Chisinau and Bucharest. <\/p>\n

Today, Moldova has to face Russia’s economic and political siege meant to return Moldova from the European way. Any disunion or mistrust between Bucharest and Chisinau and within the Moldovan society favour Russia’s strategy. It is perfectly convenient to Russia that different social Moldovan groups quarrel because of historical and philological conflicts, weakening, thus, the entire society’s resistance to the Russian plans. <\/p>\n

By opening again these controversial problems, President Basescu says that he talked as a good Romanian citizen. Of course, he is absolutely frank. But experts should have explained to him that such a way of doing things has always led to misunderstandings and disunion. At present, Romania s effectiveness as Moldova’s advocate and backer, as provider of consensus rather than of controversies, is Bucharest’ and Chisinau’s joint stake. <\/p>\n

Moldova has reached a political truce on identity controversies. Of course, there are exceptions too, but this non-stated truce is based on a social consensus. Until now, the government and civil society refrained from commenting on President Basescu’s statements. This restraint and cautiousness proves the government’s and social society’s political maturity. There are only a few people from the Moldovan political world who <\/p>\n

seem to want to call President Voronin to account for he allegedly "lost the chance" to enter the EU alongside Romania through its "offer". But as a matter of fact, as I have already said, such a chance or offer has never been and neither could they be. <\/p>\n

Most of the Bucharest press (minus some predictable exceptions) is critical or sceptical as to the opportunity of these statements by President Basescu. On the two banks of the Prut river, the old-fashioned "national-historical" prospect looses room in favour of the European agenda. <\/p>\n

Question: What impact, in your opinion, will these statements have on the relations between Romania and the European Union? <\/p>\n

Answer: Romania’s credibility on Moldova’s problems is a trump both for Romania and Moldova. From this point of view, the statements’ immediate impact risks to be a negative one. It is possible that Brussels asks Bucharest a few questions about these statements. <\/p>\n

I have spoken whenever possible for Romania’s accession to the negotiations on the Transnistrian conflict settlement and for the EU to consult Romania step by step. My argument was that Romania has a legal interest and the necessary expertise for this role, both on its own behalf, and as EU’s mouthpiece in the region. But this argument proved to have a gap. Anyway, many European governments were distrustful from different reasons. <\/p>\n

Even if Bucharest has not entered the negotiations for the time being, it had the possibility to significantly and positively influence the EU’s joint policy on Moldova, immediately after Romania’s accession to the EU, that is, in a few months. But following Basescu’s statements, Bucharest’s credibility in Brussels risks to fall. <\/p>\n

The Romanian president’s confession that he always thinks of Romania’s unification with Moldova in a single state can be idealistic, but Brussels will answer that it does not suit the EU’s vision. So, Bucharest instead of <\/p>\n

influencing positively the EU’s policy very soon, could be asked by the EU to comply with its policies in the existing limits. <\/p>\n

The example of "two Germanys" is inadequate regarding the relationship between Moldova and Romania. <\/p>\n

The comparison between the unification of the two Germanys and an eventual unification between Romania and Moldova can be hardly backed because the situations are very distinct. It is for the first time that I hear from Bucharest the idea that Romania is "the only country, the only nation that is still divided". I usually have heard a similar topic – of disunited people – from some political groups in Russia, Serbia and Hungary. But I have never heard this idea in the German-Austrian, or Dutch-Belgian, or French-Belgian-Swiss contexts within the European Union. <\/p>\n

Question: Are there Moldovan or European forces that could speculate on these statements to Moldova s detriment? <\/p>\n

Answer: In Moldova, there are some political groups with small election potential, which hope to survive due to the issue over identity, and they could interpret these statements as a sign of Bucharest’s official support. <\/p>\n

Such groups seek to take the place of the Christian Democratic Popular Party, now that it evolved from a national Romanian party in Bessarabia to the role of a European party in Moldova. In my opinion, such calculations are made in vain. They would lead to nothing but the division of the centre-right vote, misbalancing the whole political system. <\/p>\n

Of course, Tiraspol and Moscow will try to speculate on these statements. Tiraspol will do it in a primitive way of internal propaganda, while Moscow will be somehow more sophisticated using its diplomatic channels. <\/p>\n

Question: Do President Basescu’s statements refer somehow to Ukraine too? <\/p>\n

Answer: So far, I have seen no reaction from Kiev, where the government and the political parties are busy with internal power fights. Of course, some of the territories to which President Basescu referred in the context of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact are nowadays part of Ukraine. But I am convinced that his statements imply by no way territorial claims. Romania and Ukraine have already signed an interstate treaty, while Romania’s treaty with Moldova is still under negotiations. <\/p>\n

Poland has lost much more territories than Romania, as a direct or indirect consequence of the same pact. Former Polish territories nowadays are part of Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania. But Poland has never been nostalgic about the reintegration problem. Poland has signed interstate treaties which recognise the present borders. This partially explains Poland’s prestige in Europe, and Poland’s credibility as Ukraine’s advocate within the European Union. <\/p>\n

Vladimir Socor is an analyst at the Jamestown Foundation Research Center, editorialist and political observer for the Wall Street Journal, contributor for Radio Free Europe.  \/\/ Moldpres<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reading Time: <\/span> 6<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>Vladimir Socor: A union between Moldova and Romania would jeopardize Romania\u2019s chances to enter the EU<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-101396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"content_social_share":"Reading Time: <\/span> 6<\/span> minutes<\/span><\/span>

Exclusive interview with a western political analyst, Vlad Socor <\/p>\n

Question: Mr. Socor, how do you consider the statements Romanian President Traian Basescu made on 1 and 3 July about an eventual unification between Romania and Moldova from the prospect of their EU entry? <\/p>\n

SOCOR: These emotional and unrealistic statements by President Basescu do not have to make us lose sight of fundamental things that are in force: Romania is doomed to be Moldova’s consistent backer, the advocate on whom Moldova counts in hard times. I repeat what I have already said: President Basescu and the Hungarian Foreign Minister help focus Washington’s and Brussels’ attention on Moldova’s problems: the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria; the need in the EU trade and travel preferences; and Moldova’s inclusion in the group of the South-eastern European states which have more favourable EU accession conditions. <\/p>\n

The capital of confidence between Chisinau and Bucharest, which has been carefully built up by Traian Basescu, as well as Romania’s international credibility, are too precious to be easily wasted by this latest statements. <\/p>\n

The idea that Moldova could join the European Union through some mechanism of unification with Romania is merely a fantasy. There has never been and neither could it be any 2005 offer by Bucharest to "bring" Moldova within the EU jointly with Romania. President Basescu could by no means seriously propose this to President Voronin. <\/p>\n

Brussels did not authorize Bucharest to make such proposals to Chisinau. <\/p>\n

There is no way Brussels could authorise Bucharest to make such a proposal to Chisinau. And it is unconceivable that Bucharest called on the EU to authorise such a scenario, because it would have jeopardised even Romania’s chances to enter the EU. <\/p>\n

The European Union negotiated Romania’s accession on the basis of clearly defined conditions, which Romania has fulfilled slowly and with difficulty till this year. Brussels negotiated the accession namely with Romania, and not with some state union "Romania-Moldova", which somebody figured out. For the time being, Moldova is far from meeting the criteria and conditions so that to start at least the EU accession process. Brussels would not have "imported" the territory from the right bank of the Dniestre river with its unresolved social and economic problems, and neither would it have allowed losing the territory from the left bank of Dniestre by its transformation into a kind of "Kaliningrad-II". The EU’s policy is based on Moldova’s independence and integrity. <\/p>\n

Of course, Moldova will advance along the European integration way, being helped including by Romania, which will soon become an EU member. But there is no "short way" to enter the EU, without meeting the EU criteria. Chisinau follows correctly the way of the European Union Action Plan for Moldova, and not fantasy scenarios. <\/p>\n

Such statements could lead to social division and lack of trust between these two countries. <\/p>\n

Question: What do you think about the opportunity of President Basescu’s statements? <\/p>\n

Answer: I deem as inopportune to emphasise the historical and national identity problems, and to resume discussions and render political the "Moldovan or Romanian" issue. Moldova has long ago found out the counterproductive effects of such approaches: social disunion, distracting attention from real problems, mutual attacks in media, lack of confidence between the two banks of Prut, and drawing water to Tiraspol’s mill. It is also inopportune to formulate the problem in territorial terms, being nostalgic about the "lost territories" – this vision is misplaced nowadays. <\/p>\n

The consistent return to the historical problems and the national identity issue do not represent Romania’s political strategy on Moldova, they rather point to a deficit of strategy. Last year, President Basescu proceeded to repair this deficit, repeatedly stating that the time is ripe to move from discussions about history and philology to measures in the gas and electricity sectors. The Romanian president was right to incriminate Russia’s "energy blackmail" and promised to help Moldova cope with it. In his turn, the Hungarian Foreign Minister cooperates with Chisinau for Moldova’s European integration through the Balkan channel. <\/p>\n

A European partnership with Moldova will bring regional and international credibility and prestige to Romania. On the contrary, a policy based on historical and identity criteria is no longer understood in the contemporary Europe, especially if such a policy is officially presented in this old-fashioned way. <\/p>\n

Question: How do you think, what impact these statements will have on the Romanian-Moldovan relations? <\/p>\n

Answer: A new round of "traditional" Bucharest-Chisinau polemics on historical and national identity issues can by no means be allowed. Moscow and Tiraspol are as happy as one can be in such situations. The past years’ polemics would have disastrous consequences nowadays, when the stakes are bigger than ever both for Chisinau and Bucharest. <\/p>\n

Today, Moldova has to face Russia’s economic and political siege meant to return Moldova from the European way. Any disunion or mistrust between Bucharest and Chisinau and within the Moldovan society favour Russia’s strategy. It is perfectly convenient to Russia that different social Moldovan groups quarrel because of historical and philological conflicts, weakening, thus, the entire society’s resistance to the Russian plans. <\/p>\n

By opening again these controversial problems, President Basescu says that he talked as a good Romanian citizen. Of course, he is absolutely frank. But experts should have explained to him that such a way of doing things has always led to misunderstandings and disunion. At present, Romania s effectiveness as Moldova’s advocate and backer, as provider of consensus rather than of controversies, is Bucharest’ and Chisinau’s joint stake. <\/p>\n

Moldova has reached a political truce on identity controversies. Of course, there are exceptions too, but this non-stated truce is based on a social consensus. Until now, the government and civil society refrained from commenting on President Basescu’s statements. This restraint and cautiousness proves the government’s and social society’s political maturity. There are only a few people from the Moldovan political world who <\/p>\n

seem to want to call President Voronin to account for he allegedly "lost the chance" to enter the EU alongside Romania through its "offer". But as a matter of fact, as I have already said, such a chance or offer has never been and neither could they be. <\/p>\n

Most of the Bucharest press (minus some predictable exceptions) is critical or sceptical as to the opportunity of these statements by President Basescu. On the two banks of the Prut river, the old-fashioned "national-historical" prospect looses room in favour of the European agenda. <\/p>\n

Question: What impact, in your opinion, will these statements have on the relations between Romania and the European Union? <\/p>\n

Answer: Romania’s credibility on Moldova’s problems is a trump both for Romania and Moldova. From this point of view, the statements’ immediate impact risks to be a negative one. It is possible that Brussels asks Bucharest a few questions about these statements. <\/p>\n

I have spoken whenever possible for Romania’s accession to the negotiations on the Transnistrian conflict settlement and for the EU to consult Romania step by step. My argument was that Romania has a legal interest and the necessary expertise for this role, both on its own behalf, and as EU’s mouthpiece in the region. But this argument proved to have a gap. Anyway, many European governments were distrustful from different reasons. <\/p>\n

Even if Bucharest has not entered the negotiations for the time being, it had the possibility to significantly and positively influence the EU’s joint policy on Moldova, immediately after Romania’s accession to the EU, that is, in a few months. But following Basescu’s statements, Bucharest’s credibility in Brussels risks to fall. <\/p>\n

The Romanian president’s confession that he always thinks of Romania’s unification with Moldova in a single state can be idealistic, but Brussels will answer that it does not suit the EU’s vision. So, Bucharest instead of <\/p>\n

influencing positively the EU’s policy very soon, could be asked by the EU to comply with its policies in the existing limits. <\/p>\n

The example of "two Germanys" is inadequate regarding the relationship between Moldova and Romania. <\/p>\n

The comparison between the unification of the two Germanys and an eventual unification between Romania and Moldova can be hardly backed because the situations are very distinct. It is for the first time that I hear from Bucharest the idea that Romania is "the only country, the only nation that is still divided". I usually have heard a similar topic – of disunited people – from some political groups in Russia, Serbia and Hungary. But I have never heard this idea in the German-Austrian, or Dutch-Belgian, or French-Belgian-Swiss contexts within the European Union. <\/p>\n

Question: Are there Moldovan or European forces that could speculate on these statements to Moldova s detriment? <\/p>\n

Answer: In Moldova, there are some political groups with small election potential, which hope to survive due to the issue over identity, and they could interpret these statements as a sign of Bucharest’s official support. <\/p>\n

Such groups seek to take the place of the Christian Democratic Popular Party, now that it evolved from a national Romanian party in Bessarabia to the role of a European party in Moldova. In my opinion, such calculations are made in vain. They would lead to nothing but the division of the centre-right vote, misbalancing the whole political system. <\/p>\n

Of course, Tiraspol and Moscow will try to speculate on these statements. Tiraspol will do it in a primitive way of internal propaganda, while Moscow will be somehow more sophisticated using its diplomatic channels. <\/p>\n

Question: Do President Basescu’s statements refer somehow to Ukraine too? <\/p>\n

Answer: So far, I have seen no reaction from Kiev, where the government and the political parties are busy with internal power fights. Of course, some of the territories to which President Basescu referred in the context of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact are nowadays part of Ukraine. But I am convinced that his statements imply by no way territorial claims. Romania and Ukraine have already signed an interstate treaty, while Romania’s treaty with Moldova is still under negotiations. <\/p>\n

Poland has lost much more territories than Romania, as a direct or indirect consequence of the same pact. Former Polish territories nowadays are part of Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania. But Poland has never been nostalgic about the reintegration problem. Poland has signed interstate treaties which recognise the present borders. This partially explains Poland’s prestige in Europe, and Poland’s credibility as Ukraine’s advocate within the European Union. <\/p>\n

Vladimir Socor is an analyst at the Jamestown Foundation Research Center, editorialist and political observer for the Wall Street Journal, contributor for Radio Free Europe.  \/\/ Moldpres<\/p>\n

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